It seems my “Nobody Knows It” posting Saturday has induced an email trail. I share pertinent portions here. Since my comments are first, it might be best to start at the back and read forward.
Actually Tony, my district (ward) is one in which it's easier to get elected as an R than a D. You could go back to straight ticket voting numbers; or analyze top of the ticket voting in ward 8. Courage in running as an R or a D is simply a function of where you are from. Some districts are virtually sure locks for Democratic candidates; some for Republicans; some are pure toss-ups. You don't have to be a genius to figure which is which. We could give them all ratings on a 1-10 scale. I have and that's how I make predictions. My ward (8) is the most Republican one in Manchester due to the suburban type growth in the ward in the past 20 years. If a 10 is solid Republican, I would rank Ward 8 a 7. In my ten year top of the ticket analysis of all districts in the State (100 being pure Republican, 0 pure Democratic), Ward 8 comes out as 56.07 for the past decade after being 54.15 in the 90s. (Ward 5, on the other hand, is around 46, but even more Democratic than that once you get away from top of the ticket).. Some districts showed greater changes in the 10 years spans, much of Rockingham county becoming more Republican; much of the north country more Democratic for example. (I'd be happy to share numbers with anyone individually and will post them all when I have lots of time to type). Along with a Laconia ward or two, Ward 8 is the only city ward in the entire state that voted for John Stephen over John Lynch, and there are numerous other examples like this.
However, I've topped the ticket as both a Democrat and Republican in the past (in every state primary and general election since 2000, but then people would accuse me of being egotistical when in fact, I'm just point to facts; I would hasten to add that I always do poorly in low turnout city elections; a presidential year turnout is bound to be very high; that's why I'm not really worried about me personally). And Ward 8 may--correct me if I'm wrong--is the only ward in the city to never elect all three Representatives from the same party dating back to the 80s, maybe even farther back than that. (Ward 1 on the other hand used to elect all three Republicans; it now elects all three Democrats--not so Ward 8). Look it up! How so? Ray Buckley was able to win there when most Democrats would not have won--the Fran Riley, Jackie Domaingue days.
Tim Horrigan is NOT right about my decision to leave the Democratic party. That's probably because he listens to rumors when I would be happy to tell him the truth, the whole truth. In capsulated form, you should check the history; my switch was just after the Democrats in 1999 (with much Republican support) managed to get an income tax through the House (albeit not a final version). I have always been extremely fiscally conservative and Democrats clearly became more and more the party of big tax and spenders (a rather recent development--Democrats in the 19th century were the fiscal conservatives--Grover Cleveland is one of my favorite presidents). Meanwhile at the same time, Republicans had become the party of fascists in my mind. By 2000, Republicans seemed to be moving away from their fascist tendencies (perhaps best embodied by Jesse Helms). Bottom line--Tim's analysis is more psychobabble than anything else. I probably should have been a Republican all along (I would have won in 1994 had I been--the Steve Merrill landslide buried most Democrats, certainly in places like Ward 8), but I could not live with myself--always the number one consideration--and be in the same party of people like Jesse Helms.
His Vileness, as usual, is totally wrong. I did say that I wouldn't run if Scamman ran, and in fact, he did not run that year; so His Vileness thinks he has a scoop, but in fact, he's got the years wrong. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing in the hands of one committed to deceiving people who don't know better. His Vileness spends his life pretending to know what he is ignorant about. I waited till the very last minute in 2006 and then decided to run only when Scamman did NOT file. It was 2008 that Scamman decided to run again but I was told he would NOT be involved in leadership--he sure wasn't. Democrats took control. One would think people like Jasper would be ashamed of constantly being wrong, but they have no shame!
I find it endlessly amusing to see so many people weighing in to say they don't care what I do. Such unmitigated foolishness! you didn't care, you would simply say nothing. You are after all reading this and no one has a gun to your head, forcing you to hang on every word (Are you hanging?) The fact that someone goes out of his or her to say something proves he or she really does care, that he or she feels some need to respond. Perphas I should quote a passage I read from a new book, The Heartbreak of Aaron Burr by H.W. Brands--maybe June 27...or better yet, maybe when I review it here later this week.
As I noted in my blog Saturday, I am truly undecided about what, if anything, to run for. Anyone who thinks he or she knows what I will do is simply a fool...because I don't know myself. His Vileness always qaulifies for fool status, so I rest my case. Now, I see that Manchester Republicans have decided to primary me if I decide to run for Rep in Ward 8. That will not affect my decision; actually I suppose it could make me more inclined to run in Ward 8 considering how combative I tend to be, but I will make my decision on what is best for me and society as I see it. The prime reason I would run for State Rep again has nothing to do with Concord, but I am committed to making sure someone keeps county government under control Dick Hinch and I have been more responsible than anyone else for doing that the past four years. I see county taxes skyrocketing the next two years. And that's highly factored into my plans. So many fiscally conservatives become big spenders at the county level, His Vileness include
I just can't wait to see O'Brien, Ball, and Infantine attack me in a primary when my HRA score is higher than most Republican leaders. I withstood seven vicious mailings from Democrats in 2006; if I decide to run, I think I can handle equally viciousness from Republicans who prefer those who will simply do what they are told rather than think for themselves.
Let me make this one promise--should His Vileness decide not to run, I promise I will run for State Rep in Ward 8, but I suspect he will run--and win--and continue to be a wart on the body politic. He's no Doug Scamman.
From: Rep. Tony Soltani [firstname.lastname@example.org
I agree with your ultimate conclusion. Traditionally , it has been
easier to get elected in most of our districts as an R rather than a D.
Steve's District is not one of them. It has also been historically more
difficult to be a D rather than an R in the House; with a four year
exception. That is one reason I admire my friends who run as Democrats based
on their principles and not for the convenience of the times, or the
fleeting of the popularity of a party. This is not new for me. Since 1998 I
have always said that two most important ingredients of any democracy in
action are a loyal opposition and a free and vigilant press. Throughout the
years I have learned from and worked with my Democrat friends. Just look at
my most recent post on my facebook page! I must know the other perspective,
even if I am sure they are wrong at the moment. The bottom line is all of us
as fallible human beings can never be absolutely certain that any particular
vote that we cast is the right one. We have to admit the possibility that we
might be wrong, as passionately as we might believe in our position or
cause. I have a history of being a pest and sticking up for the unpopular,
or as my friend Gene Chandler put it " for the underdog". It is easy to
promote popular causes, not so easy to speak unpopular words.
From: Horrigan, Timothy [mailto:Timothy.Horrigan@leg.state.nh.us]
Rep. Vaillancourt was formerly a Democrat and ideologically he would fit in
better with the Democratic House caucus. He is more conservative than the
average House Democrat, but there are some who are more conservative than
him. There is a long and sad story about why he left the Democratic party,
with two very different sides to it--- but suffice it to say that it was
personal issues more than political issues which drove him out of the party.
I agree with Rep, Accornero that it takes less courage to run as a
Republican than as a Democrat.
From: Accornero, Harry
Does anyone really care if Vaillancourt is going to run or not? Everyone
knows he's a Democrat running as a Republican because he does not have the
courage to run as a Democrat!
Response—People like Rep. Accornero need to check HRA scores to see who is more Republican before they insist on making fools of themselves, ad infinitum.
From: email@example.com [firstname.lastname@example.org]
A great deal of intelligence can be invested in ignorance when the need for
illusion is deep. Saul Bellow
Sent from my Verizon Wireless 4G LTE DROID
From: "Jasper, Shawn His Vileness"
Nobody asked me but.. I give the odds of Rep. Vallancourt running again to
be near 100%. A few terms back (when he was still talking to me) he told me
that if Doug Scamman ran again he would not. He told me that he would not
serve with that man again. Well guess what Doug ran and so did Steve.
Response--Wrong, wrong, wrong, as noted above.