First it was just Rasmussen and Zogby; then Gallup joined in; now the Real Clear Politics average is catching up with Barack The Anointed One Obama.
His favorability rating, at plus ten or more in the wake of the Bin Laden murder, has slipped to negative 4.5 percent (45.4-49.9).
After being down 42-49, he’s come back to 45-48 in the volatile Gallup ranking today, but Rasmussen still has him trailing by 11 (44-55) and the strongly approve/disapprove is heading into record low territory. It’s minus 21 at 23-44, and it’s even worse among independents, minus 24 at 18-42.
Meanwhile, for the third week in a row, Rasmussen’s generic congressional ballot (my favorite indicator) holds steady with a six point Republican lead, 44-38.
After being under water by only 11 points in mid-June, support for Obamacare has slipped to negative 21 (57-36) with Rasmussen.
Zogby actually writes that Obama gets a bump up this week, but that’s only because he was down 18 points (38-56) two weeks ago. The bump up is to minus 11, 40-51.
In perhaps the most interesting poll of the week, Zogby finds that 39 percent prefer cut, cap, and balance while only 30 percent favor the Gang of Six approach (whatever that is) to solving the spending cap dilemma. 20 prefer neither and 12 percent are undecided.
By now everyone knows that I’m one of the biggest Ron Paul supporters around, so I hesitate to gush over good news, but there are actually two great polls out this week that show Ron Paul doing better than just about any other Republican against Obama.
Rasmussen has Ron Paul within four, 41-37. In the most recent samplings, Rasmussen had Romney up one (43-42), but Giuliani was down by 5; Christie and Bachmann trailed Obama by 7, Perry by 5, Pawlewnty by 12, Santorum by 14, Huntsman by 16, Gingrich by 18, Palin by 19, and Cain by 21.
Zogby, meanwhile, has only non-candidate Christie doing better (down by 2) than Ron Paul (down by 5) against Obama. Romney and Pawlenty trail by 6; Bachmann, Cain, and Perry by 7; Santorum by 11, Palin by 12, Gingrich by 13, and Huntsman by 15.
Putting a damper on the Ron Paul celebrations is ARG which is out with a Republican primary poll in Florida. It’s bunched at the top (Perry 16, Romney and Bachmann 15, Palin 13, and Cain 11), but Ron Paul gets only 4 percent (even Giuliani gets 7).
A nationwide CBS poll has the GOP field closing on Romney today. It’s Romney 16, Perry 14, Palin and Giuliani (I really don’t think he’ll run) 13, Bachmann, Ron Paul 8, Cain 6, Gingrich 4, Pawlenty 3, and Santorum 2.
Romney still leads by 8.8 in the RCP average, but that’ll probably start closing as well. It’s Romney 22.3, Bachmann 13.5, Palin 12.4, Perry 11.3, Giuliani 11.0, Paul 7.8, Cain 6.5, Gingrich 5.2, Pawlenty 2.8 and Santorum 2.0.
Rasmussen is out with its survey of voter trust on issues, and Republicans lead in nine of 10 categories, all but education (42-38 for Democrats). Republicans are up 45-35 on the economy, 46-43 on health care, 41-37 on Iraq, 47-33 on immigration, 42-37 on Afghanistan, 38-35 on government ethics, 45-37 on national security, 46-40 on taxes, and even 42-40 on social security. Guess those throw granny off the cliff and drive the car off the cliff scare tactic ads from the Service Employees Union haven’t worked so well.
Remember that three months ago I said the next quarter could tell the story for Obama with Gallup’s survey. On average, even with the Bin Laden bounce, Obama was at 46.8 for the three months—his tenth quarter (as opposed to 46.7 for the previous three months). He was at 63.0 after quarter one, then 62.0, 52.9, 50.8, 48.8, and 47.3 for the quarter which ended July 20, 2010. The best that can be said is that he’s stabilizing at a much lower level.
The right track/wrong track RCP average is a staggering minus 39.7 (26.3-66.0).
About the only good news (potentially) for Democrats is that Congress is doing much worse than Obama. The RCP average is minus 54.2 at 19.2 percent favorable and 73.4 percent unfavorable.
Despite claims by some (Dick Morris) that Obama is losing the Jewish vote, the latest Gallup numbers have him up 60-32 for June, down but not dramatically from 68-26 for May (the area it’s been in for most of his term).
Rasmussen has only 18 percent favoring a return to the draft (it was as high as 24 percent in 2007). 67 percent oppose it. In the same poll, 30 percent of Americans favor a year of voluntary service but 57 percent oppose even that.
There’s more but how many numbers can one digest in a given week?