Remember how Democrats and their fellow travelers in the main stream media, especially the Daily Kos, were quick to pooh pooh that UNH poll which had Scott Brown within two points of Jeanne Shaheen in mid-August.
Well…you can just hold those poohs because in the latest CNN/Opinion Research poll just out, Scott Brown is not merely within two points; in fact, he’s dead even.
Remember also that for months I’ve been suggesting that we could expect a primary bounce for Scott Brown because in state after state, Republican primary winners have immediately moved up four to six points in averaged polling data.
Sure enough, it’s happened for Scott Brown. According to the Real Clear Politics average, he’s halved the gap with Shaheen, and it would be even closer but for a Rasmussen Poll which has Shaheen up by six points. This is the same Rasmussen, king of automated (that is to say unreliable) polling, which has Obama at only minus three in popularity while he’s down 12.6 points in the RCP average. Obama would be down 13.75 were RCP to remove Rasmussen from its data base, something it clearly should do.
Meanwhile, Democrats are in free fall in the all-important generic ballot numbers. Until just a few minutes ago, not even Rasmussen had Democrats ahead; it does now, but that's in the same batch of numbers in which Obama is only down three points. Go figure! Keep in mind that Larry Sabato, at the University of Virginia, has charts on his web site showing how Democrats need a five point lead in the generic ballot just to break even on election day.
By the way, don't for a minute think that Fox News polling goes out of its way to favor Republicans. In fact, in its poll prior to this one, it had Democrats up seven points in the generic ballot and Obama doing better than any pollster other than Rasmussen; I figured it had gotten a hold of some bad numbers; clearly, Fox News does not rig its polls.
Here are the three charts from RCP—Shaheen vs. Brown; Obama popularity; and generic ballot numbers.
No additional commentary is needed here.
Polling Data--Shaheen v. Brown
|Poll||Date||Sample||MoE||Shaheen (D)||Brown (R)||Spread|
|RCP Average||8/7 - 9/11||--||--||47.3||43.8||Shaheen +3.5|
|CNN/Opinion Research||9/8 - 9/11||735 LV||3.5||48||48||Tie|
|Rasmussen Reports||9/10 - 9/11||750 LV||4.0||48||42||Shaheen +6|
|CBS News/NYT/YouGov||8/18 - 9/2||1159 LV||4.0||47||41||Shaheen +6|
|WMUR/UNH||8/7 - 8/17||609 LV||4.0||46||44||Shaheen +2|
Polling Data--Obama Approval
|RCP Average||9/2 - 9/14||--||41.4||54.0||-12.6|
|Gallup||9/12 - 9/14||1500 A||41||54||-13|
|Rasmussen Reports||9/12 - 9/14||1500 LV||48||51||-3|
|FOX News||9/7 - 9/9||833 LV||38||57||-19|
|The Economist/YouGov||9/6 - 9/8||715 RV||40||58||-18|
|CNN/Opinion Research||9/5 - 9/7||1014 A||43||55||-12|
|Pew Research||9/2 - 9/9||2002 A||42||50||-8|
|ABC News/Wash Post||9/4 - 9/7||RV||42||54||-12|
|Reuters/Ipsos||9/3 - 9/7||1758 A||39||53||-14|
|NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl||9/3 - 9/7||1000 RV||40||54|
Polling Data--Generic Ballot
|Poll||Date||Sample||Republicans (R)||Democrats (D)||Spread|
|RCP Average||8/23 - 9/14||--||45.7||42.7||Republicans +3.0|
|Rasmussen Reports||9/8 - 9/14||3500 LV||38||41||Democrats +3|
|Pew Research||9/2 - 9/9||1150 LV||47||44||Republicans +3|
|FOX News||9/7 - 9/9||833 LV||47||40||Republicans +7|
|CNN/Opinion Research||9/5 - 9/7||LV||49||45||Republicans +4|
|ABC News/Wash Post||9/4 - 9/7||LV||47||44||Republicans +3|
|GWU/Battleground||8/23 - 8/28||1000 LV||46||42||Republicans +4|