To be sure, the poll was commissioned by Republican governors, so some bias might be expected, but with that caveat, it's still mighty interesting to note that New Hampshire native Scott Brown has pulled ahead of the Missourian Jeanne Shaheen in the race for New Hampshire Senator.
Detailed results are available in The Weekly Standard, but and while the word "confidential" appears at the top of the poll, how can anything available around the world really be considered confidential? You can google it and click on the results; heck, I'll even provide the link for you here--so much for confidentiality.
600 likely voters were polled on March 19-20. The margin of error is plus or minus four percent.
Scott Brown's lead over the Missourian is 49-44 percent. 36 percent say they will definitely vote for Brown; 13 percent say they probably will.
Meanwhile, the Missouri native (that's incumbent Shaheen for those who don't remember her past) gets 37 percent definite and six percent probable (I know, that adds up to only 43, but we're undoubtedly dealing with fractions here).
Both Brown and the Missourian have a plus five favorability--48-43 for Shaheen; 41-36 for Brown. The news is even better for Brown in that 16 percent express no opinion while that number is only six percent for Shaheen.
Even as Democrats will be quick to pooh pooh these polls results, word is out that UNH pollster Andy Smith is in the field and comparative results should be available soon.
Prior to this poll, the Missourian was up 7.9 points in the Real Clear Politics average. She was up 50-38 with ARG; 50-41 with Rasmussen; 52-39 with Suffolk; 47-37 with WMUR (those would be Smith's numbers from January 21-26); 46-43 with Democratic-leaning pollster PPP. Purple Strategies had the race even at 44-44 in a poll conducted January 21-23.
Let's say that the Weekly Standard poll is off a few points. Let's say Brown actually trails the Missourian by five points rather than leads by five points.
That still would be very bad news indeed for New Hampshire Democrats. I declared recently, and other pundits have expressed agreement, that Brown would be hampered in poll results until after the September primary. Only then will Republicans come to realize that it's either Brown or the Missourian and be compelled to opt for Brown.
Oh yes, I shall continue to refer to Shaheen as the Missourian, at least as long as Democrats try to portray Brown as someone who has just moved up from Missouri, a strategy doomed to backfire rest assured.
A Lesson From 1978
If you don't believe me, look at the history. In 1978, incumbent Democratic senator (for 16 years) Tom McIntyre took upstart Gordon Humphrey for granted and even tried to portray him as an outsider. In fact, Humphrey had lived here for only three years. New Hampshire law required (and still does today) a seven year residency in the state to run for state senate, but there is no requirement for U.S. Senate.
Lo and behold, team Humphrey discovered that McIntyre's Laconia home was little more than a room; he was living in rather luxurious fashion in Florida. The Republican challenger filmed McIntyre's Florida estate and feature it in a commercial the last weekend of the campaign.
Who will forget how, on election night, ARG pollster Dick Bennett was on Channel 9 predicting McIntyre would win by 30 points. When asked how he could explain his prediction, Bennett confessed that he had stopped polling the weekend prior to the election at which time the commercial of McIntyre the Floridian hit the air waves.
The political lesson was "people who live in glass house (or in this case Florida mansions) shouldn't throw rocks."
The Missourian would be well served if she stops throwing the carpetbagger rock at New Hampshire native Scott Brown, lest Brown's five point lead become locked in stone.
As always, Raybo and the Missourian need not thank me for this sage advice and the main stream media is entitled to use this stroll down memory lane, as usual, without attribution.
Scott Brown Pulls Ahead 5 Points In New Hampshire Poll
Republican Scott Brown leads incumbent Democratic senator Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire by five points in a recent poll obtained by THE WEEKLY STANDARD. The poll, commissioned by the Republican Governor's Association, was conducted on March 19 and 20 and asked 600 likely voters in New Hampshire who they would vote for in the U.S. Senate election. Respondents were given both Brown and Shaheen's names and their respective parties.
According to the poll, 36 percent said they would "definitely" vote for Brown, the former senator from Massachusetts, while 13 percent said they would "probably" vote for him, bringing his total support to 49 percent. The same poll found 37 percent said they would "definitely" vote for Shaheen with 6 percent saying they would "probably" vote for her, with a total of 44 percent in support of the incumbent Democrat. Seven percent said they did not know who they would vote for.
Shaheen, a one-term senator who also served as governor of the small New England state, appears to be a known quantity: 48 percent say they approve of her (higher than Brown's 41 percent), but 43 percent say they disapprove of her (also higher than Brown's 36 percent).
The RGA poll is the first to show Brown with a lead. According to the Real Clear Politics poll average, Shaheen has a nearly 8-point lead, and the seat leans Democratic.
New Hampshire's senior senator, Shaheen was first elected in 2008 over Republican incumbent John E. Sununu. She was one of several freshman Democratic senators to vote for Obamacare. A February poll showed 53 percent of New Hampshire residents oppose the health care law.