Rep Steve Vaillancourt


CNN Has Scott Brown Even With Shaheen

                Remember how Democrats and their fellow travelers in the main stream media, especially the Daily Kos, were quick to pooh pooh that UNH poll which had Scott Brown within two points of Jeanne Shaheen in mid-August.

                Well…you can just hold those poohs because in the latest CNN/Opinion Research poll just out, Scott Brown is not merely within two points; in fact, he’s dead even.

                Remember also that for months I’ve been suggesting that we could expect a primary bounce for Scott Brown because in state after state, Republican primary winners have immediately moved up four to six points in averaged  polling data.

                Sure enough, it’s happened for Scott Brown.  According to the Real Clear Politics average, he’s halved the gap with Shaheen, and it would be even closer but for a Rasmussen Poll which has Shaheen up by six points.  This is the same Rasmussen, king of automated (that is to say unreliable) polling, which has Obama at only minus three in popularity while he’s down 12.6 points in the RCP average.  Obama would be down 13.75 were RCP to remove Rasmussen from its data base, something it clearly should do.

                Meanwhile, Democrats are in free fall in the all-important generic ballot numbers.  Until just a few minutes ago, not even Rasmussen had Democrats ahead; it does now, but that's in the same batch of numbers in which Obama is only down three points.  Go figure!  Keep in mind that Larry Sabato, at the University of Virginia, has charts on his web site showing how Democrats need a five point lead in the generic ballot just to break even on election day.

              By the way, don't for a minute think that Fox News polling goes out of its way to favor Republicans.  In fact, in its poll prior to this one, it had Democrats up seven points in the generic ballot and Obama doing better than any pollster other than Rasmussen; I figured it had gotten a hold of some bad numbers; clearly, Fox News does not rig its polls.

                Here are the three charts from RCP—Shaheen vs. Brown; Obama popularity; and generic ballot numbers.

                No additional commentary is needed here.

Polling Data--Shaheen v. Brown

PollDateSampleMoEShaheen (D)Brown (R)Spread
RCP Average 8/7 - 9/11 -- -- 47.3 43.8 Shaheen +3.5
CNN/Opinion Research 9/8 - 9/11 735 LV 3.5 48 48 Tie
Rasmussen Reports 9/10 - 9/11 750 LV 4.0 48 42 Shaheen +6
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18 - 9/2 1159 LV 4.0 47 41 Shaheen +6
WMUR/UNH 8/7 - 8/17 609 LV 4.0 46 44 Shaheen +2

All New Hampshire Senate - Brown vs. Shaheen Polling Data

Polling Data--Obama Approval

PollDateSampleApprove Disapprove Spread
RCP Average 9/2 - 9/14 -- 41.4 54.0 -12.6
Gallup 9/12 - 9/14 1500 A 41 54 -13
Rasmussen Reports 9/12 - 9/14 1500 LV 48 51 -3
FOX News 9/7 - 9/9 833 LV 38 57 -19
The Economist/YouGov 9/6 - 9/8 715 RV 40 58 -18
CNN/Opinion Research 9/5 - 9/7 1014 A 43 55 -12
Pew Research 9/2 - 9/9 2002 A 42 50 -8
ABC News/Wash Post 9/4 - 9/7 RV 42 54 -12
Reuters/Ipsos 9/3 - 9/7 1758 A 39 53 -14
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 9/3 - 9/7 1000 RV 40 54  


Polling Data--Generic Ballot

PollDateSampleRepublicans (R)Democrats (D)Spread
RCP Average 8/23 - 9/14 -- 45.7 42.7 Republicans +3.0
Rasmussen Reports 9/8 - 9/14 3500 LV 38 41 Democrats +3
Pew Research 9/2 - 9/9 1150 LV 47 44 Republicans +3
FOX News 9/7 - 9/9 833 LV 47 40 Republicans +7
CNN/Opinion Research 9/5 - 9/7 LV 49 45 Republicans +4
ABC News/Wash Post 9/4 - 9/7 LV 47 44 Republicans +3
GWU/Battleground 8/23 - 8/28 1000 LV 46 42 Republicans +4

All 2014 Generic Congressional Vote Polling Data


Memo To Walt--Keep Christie Out Of NH

Christie in New Hampshire 1.jpg

According to media reports, New Jersey's crooked Governor Chris Christie is about ready to visit New Hampshire for the third time to campaign for Republican gubernatorial candidate Walt Havenstein.

 Not that he will listen to me, a proud supporter of Andy Hemingway, but please, Walt, please, tell Christie thanks, but no thanks. Beg him to stay out of New Hampshire. 

It's bad enough that Havenstein has tax problems in Maryland hanging over his head like a sword of Damocles, but must he remind us of how ethically challenged some Republicans (my party) are by bringing the man whose administration closed off the George Washington Bridge to our fair state? 

Can't Republicans, including Scott Brown, find someone more ethnically pure to belly up to than Chris The Big Bully Christie? 

Personally I'm having enough problems stomaching Havenstein, Witless Walt according to some, without having to see him standing next to a man who has come to symbolize everything that's wrong with our political system.

Hassan released her first attack on Havenstein over the weekend, rather effective it seems to me. She went after his poor record as CEO. With ethical problems of her own (the $25,000 illegal campaign contribution), apparently Maggie has taken the "people who live in glass houses" approach and is afraid to lay into Havenstein for his attempt to cheat the state of Maryland. 

Hassan doesn't need to do it herself apparently because every time New Hampshire voters see Christie on the stump with Havenstein they--at least a good share of the--must join me in the thought that birds of a crooked feather flock together. 

Hey, Walt, do yourself and my party a favor, tell Christie to send a check--or a lot of checks--but stay the hell out of our state for the next seven weeks.


No good can come of this.


  1. The Star-Ledger ‎- 1 day ago
    Christie, chairman of the Republican Governors Association and a ... Christie campaigned for Havenstein in June and again the following ...

Did Scott Brown Reach 50% Tuesday? Yes, Yes, And No

                If the question is, “Did Scott Brown make it to 50 percent in Tuesday’s Republican primary?”, the answer is yes and no, depending on exactly how you phrase the question.

                Let’s look at three scenarios.

                If you consider all tem candidates listed on the Republican ballot, Brown in fact made it by the narrowest of margins, 50.017 percent.  Brown’s total of 58,774 votes is 40 votes more than the 58,734 for  the other nine candidates combined.

                However, if you include candidates not on the ballot, then Brown’s total would be 49.84 percent.  That’s because there were 183 scatter votes (from real people to the Mickey Mouses you’ll see in any election), and Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen received 220 write-in votes on the Republican ballot, not many but enough to move the number from over 50 percent to just under 50 percent for Brown.

                The third way of looking at it is that Brown received 52.25 percent of the vote if you compare just the three top candidates.  In other words, he “easily” received more votes than second place finisher Jim Rubens (27,109 votes) and Bob Smith (26,593 votes) combined.

                How many angels are dancing on the head of this pin?

                It all depends what the definition of “is” is.

                Not because I’m a Scott Brown fan (I voted for Rubens but will happily vote for Brown come November), I prefer to look at the three way numbers, the scenario which yields 52.25 percent for Brown.



NH Turnout Was 19.2 Percent; 73.7 Percent Republican

                19.2 percent of New Hampshire’s registered voters cast a ballot in Tuesday’s primary, just slightly lower than Secretary of State William Gardner’s prediction of 20 percent. 

                If 19.2 percent seems low, consider this.  New Hampshire was among four states to conclude the primary process, so we have nationwide data in.  Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe I heard somewhere (probably on POTUS) that the average was 17 percent, rather bad indeed.  In fact, some believe that turnout would be improved if we had a national primary day with all 50 states voting at the same time.  I totally disagree with that idea (it might not even be constitutional).  Clearly there’s no evidence that states which hold early or later primaries get a better turnout.

                121,881 ballots were cast in the Republican primary; 43,556 on the Democratic side for a total of 165,437 (the state had 862,471 registered voters heading into the day).

                 Nearly three out of four (73.7 percent) ballots were cast in the Republican primary, no surprise since that’s where the action was, that is to say primary competition.  In fact, I’m a bit surprised it wasn’t slightly higher than that.

                I searched the turnout sheets town by town and ward by ward, and came up with one city and five towns which had more Democratic votes cast (plus a few assorted wards here and there).

                Again, there are no surprises here.  Durham and Hanover, Democratic strongholds, went Democratic564-468 and 391-367 respectively.    Concord (3643-2965) and Hopkinton (766-625) can be explained not only by their Democratic nature but by the highly publicized Democratic State Senate primary.

                Keene actually went 1638-1251 for Republicans, but the small Cheshire County town of Harrisville was 109-82 for Democrats.

                That leaves us with one Democratic town, and rather than save it for a trivia question (I doubt many people would get it), I’ll reveal it here.

                Peterborough, the once proud Republican town of the Basses and the Petersons, went 576-523 for Democrats in turnout.

                Truly, that’s the kind of information you’ll find here and nowhere else.

                Only in two small counties (Belknap and Carroll) did the Republican total exceed 80 percent of overall ballots cast.  In three counties—and you can probably guess them—it was less than 70 percent.  Think Democratic strongholds…Merrimack, Cheshire, and Strafford.

                A hypothesis would be that the Republican number would be lower than the average of 73.7 percent in cities; and that’s true.  However, we would expect a greater Democratic percentage in Nashua than Manchester, but that’s not true (66.5 percent Republican in Manchester, 71.0 percent in Nashua).

                While it would be dangerous to read too much into these numbers, my guess would be that Republicans could have a better year than expected in Nashua, not as good as 2010 but certainly much better than 2012.

                The Secretary of State’s web site has the town by town data, so if you’re really into this, you can compare your town with the 19.2 turnout percentage and the 73.7 percent Republican total.

                In a few days, we should have data as to how many undeclared voters took Republican versus Democratic ballots; my guess would be 90-10 percent; and of how many undeclared voters opted to switch back to undeclared status after they voted.  Keep in mind that in New Hampshire, registered Democrats must take a Democratic ballot in a primary; registered Republicans must take a Republican ballot; only Undeclared voters may choose either ballot (but not both).

                The beauty of our system is that once the filing period begins, in early June, you are locked into party affiliation and cannot change until after the primary.  That negates the possibility of trying to “mess” with the other party’s primary, a charge I have actually heard once or twice in the past few days.

                Give it up conspiracy theorists; ballot manipulation is not the New Hampshire way; and I suspect it never will be as long as Bill Gardner is Secretary of State.

For those of you who prefer charts, let’s give it a go.

County                 Republican Votes            Democratic Votes            Republican %

Belknap                               6840                       1584                                       81.2

Carroll                                  6515                       1472                                       81.6

Cheshire                              5777                       3116                                       65.0

Coos                                    2623                       1134                                       69.9

Grafton                                6866                       2466                                       73.6

Hillsborough                      35,198                     11,851                                     74.8

Merrimack                          14,302                       7731                                      64.9

Rockingham                       31,104                      8604                                       78.3

Strafford                              8310                       4016                                       67.4

Sullivan                                4346                       1582                                       73.3



City                        Republican Votes            Democratic Votes            Republican %

Concord                             2965                       3643                       `               44.9

Manchester                        7230                       3647                                       66.5

Nashua                               5978                       2446                                       71.0

Keene                                 1638                       1251                                       56.7

Portsmouth                         1405                       867                                         61.8

Rochester                            2104                       815                                         72.1 

Berlin                                   395                        380                                         51.0

If I’ve made any mistakes with my quick math calculations, let me know, either at my blog or at


Three Cheers For My Friend Kyle

Both personally and politically, I consider Representative Kyle Tasker, R-Nottingham, a friend and ally.

Yes, that would be the same Kyle Tasker whom the media (not to mention politically correct Democrats) never tire of attacking. Every few months, it seems, Kyle is the target of Channel 9 and many other media outlets who don't seem to understand their job is to present the real news instead of succumbing the Democratic PR hacks calling for Kyle's scalp.

Thus, I took special joy in the results from Rockingham District 2 which elects three State Representatives. As you can see from the chart, not only did Kyle win, but he topped the ticket handily, and rightly so!

Kyle reminds me a lot of my late friend from Hopkinton Richard "Stretch" Kennedy who was known to utter the most politically incorrect comments but never with malice intended. There wasn't a cruel bone in Stretch's body (how I still miss him) and there isn't a cruel bone in Kyle Tasker's body.

Apparently his constituents realize that.

While even I might have refrained from some of Kyle's jokes (sadly, I have learned the art of self-censorship, at least a bit), I admire him for them. Come to think of it, hey, I've blogged about Craig Ferguson's "fuzzy balls" joke and Julie Mason's use of a group known as The Dead Kennedys in the last two weeks.

What Kyle has done isn't all that much more outrageous, yet the media seems to have given me a pass.

Life is too short not to have a little fun. Hey, life is too short not to have a lot of fun.

Voters in Rockingham 2 seem to realize that...if only Harrell the Humorless Hack and other holier than thou Democrat spinners would realize it, ours would be a better place in which to live.

I'm an equal opportunity funster. Remember, I thought it was crazy for Democrat Tim Horrigan, of Durham, to resign for the truism he told about Sara Palin. I even defended the loathsome Peter Sullivan, D-Manchester, for his comments about Marilinda Garcia (something like she's a Bill O'Brien in heels, quite a clever line actually).

To all yesterday's winners, both Republicans and Democrats, two words seem in order.

"Hail victory"....hmm...anybody wanna try translating that into German? Alan Dershowitz perhaps?

Talk about two words that could get one in political hot water...been there...done that.

Kyle Tasker 742 23%

James Spillane 721 22%

Joe Duarte 592 18%

Romeo Danais 576 18%

Patricia Desrosiers 377 12%

Arthur Beauchesne 212 7%

Sadly, I also consider Romeo Danais a friend and ally.

Lest we forget the Horrigan and Sullivan episodes...

Legislator resigns after 'dead Palin' comment - CNN Political ...



Aug 12, 2010 - Timothy Horrigan made the remarks Wednesday night in a thread discussing ... "Well a dead Palin wd be even more dangerous than a live one.

Democrat Who Attacked Conservative Marilinda Garcia Has ...


Dec 4, 2013 - Peter Sullivan hurling sexist comments toward New Hampshire Rep. and Congressional Candidate Marilinda Garcia. A deeper look at ...