Rep Steve Vaillancourt



Tuesday
Oct142014

NEC Has Brown Ahead; RCP Moves NH Back To Toss-Up


UPDATE--10:30 p.m.--Sure enough, as indicated below, 538 just decreased Shaheen's odds to 81 percent and increased odds of Republican control of the Senate to 60.2 percent overall nationwide.  Nate Silver writes a great deal about New Hampshire in his new fivethirtyeight.com post.

Note that as predicted here yesterday (would I ever steer you wrong?), the ARG poll has been dropped from those included in Real Clear Politics averages, and Scott Brown has moved to within 3.5 points of Missouri native Jeanne Shaheen, thus moving the race into the RCP toss-up column. 

That move is facilitated by a new New England College poll--just out--which has Brown actually taking a one point lead 48-47 (1.1 points to be precise).  Whoa!  I almost buried the lead.  That's how fast things are moving.  Maggie Hassan's lead is down to 5.2 points over Walt Havenstein (her lead in the RCP average is down to 8.2 points); Frank Guinta has moved 2.8 points ahead of Carol Shea Porter; and in the beauty contest, Marilinda Garcia has closed to within 2.6 points of Annie Kuster.  It seems that, at last, NEC pollsters are beginning to weight their survey properly (380R, 306D, 325I), based on likely voter turnout.  Here are the numbers.

 

Governor

Response

Percent

Maggie Hassan

526

48.7%

Walt Havenstein

470

43.5%

Another Candidate

29

2.7%

Not Sure

56

5.1%

Total

1,081

100%

Q2. Senate - If the election were held today how would you vote for United States Senator from New Hampshire?

Senate

Response

Percent

Scott Brown

519

48.0%

Jeanne Shaheen

507

46.9%

Another Candidate

30

2.8%

Not Sure

25

2.3%

Total

1,081

100%

Q3. CD1 - If the election were held today how would you vote for Representative from the First Congressional District?

Rep - CD1

Response

Percent

Frank Guinta

248

46.3%

Carol Shea-Porter

233

43.5%

Another Candidate

30

5.7%

Not Sure

25

4.6%

Total

536

100%

Q3. CD2 - If the election were held today how would you vote for Representative from the Second Congressional District?

Rep - CD2

Response

Percent

Annie Kuster

251

46.1%

Marilinda Garcia

232

42.5%

Another Candidate

36

6.6%

Not Sure

26

4.9%

Total

545

100%

In the other big pollng news today, for the first time in weeks, Republican Thom Tillis is ahead of North Carolina Senator Kay Hagen, 46-45 in a Survey USA Poll (her overall lead is down to 1.5 points in the RCP average).   I consider this personal vindication since the seven states I've been predicting for Republican gains all year are Montana, West Virginia, South Dakota, Louisiana, Alaska, Arkansas, and NORTH CAROLINA.  (I never saw pick-ups in Iowa or Colorado, but they appear more and more likely).

538 still gives Shaheen an 86 percent chance to win (there's usually some lag time; another prediction is that Nate Silver will lower that number by tomorrow), but Pollster has it down to 62 percent.

In another major development, while 538 continues to give Republicans a 59 percent chance of capturing the Senate, Pollster has up that number to 66 percent, a considerable hike for that left wing blog (HuffPost subsidiary).

Also note that as predicted here earlier (it's time to brag), Pat Roberts has pulled even with Greg Orman in Kansas; in fact, he leads in three of the last four polls. 

New Hampshire Senate - Brown vs. Shaheen

Candidates

Jeanne Shaheen

Jeanne Shaheen (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Scott Brown

Scott Brown (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

New Hampshire Snapshot

RCP Average: Shaheen +3.5
 RCP Ranking: Toss-Up
2014 Key Races: Governor | NH-1 | NH-2

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012: President | Governor | NH-1 | NH-2
2010: Governor | Senate | NH-1 | NH-2
2008: President | Senate | NH-1
2006: Governor | NH-2
2004: President | Senate | NH-1 | NH-2

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEShaheen (D)Brown (R)Spread
RCP Average 9/20 - 10/9 -- -- 47.5 44.0 Shaheen +3.5
New England College 10/9 - 10/9 1081 LV 3.0 47 48 Brown +1
High Point/SurveyUSA 10/4 - 10/8 824 LV 3.5 48 46 Shaheen +2
WMUR/UNH 9/29 - 10/5 532 LV 4.2 47 41 Shaheen +6
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 9/20 - 10/1 1260 LV 3.0 48 41 Shaheen +7

All New Hampshire Senate - Brown vs. Shaheen Polling Data 

Polling Data--North Carolina Senate

PollDateSampleMoEHagan (D)Tillis (R)Spread
RCP Average 9/20 - 10/12 -- -- 45.1 43.6 Hagan +1.5
SurveyUSA 10/9 - 10/12 554 LV 4.2 45 46 Tillis +1
High Point* 9/30 - 10/9 584 LV 4.1 40 40 Tie
USA Today/Suffolk* 10/4 - 10/7 500 LV 4.4 47 45 Hagan +2
Rasmussen Reports 10/6 - 10/7 970 LV 3.0 48 46 Hagan +2
NBC News/Marist* 9/27 - 10/1 665 LV 3.8 44 40 Hagan +4
CBS News/NYT/YouGov* 9/20 - 10/1 2002 LV 3.0 46 45 Hagan +1
CNN/Opinion Research* 9/22 - 9/25 595 LV 4.0 46 43 Hagan +3

All North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Hagan Polling Data

Polling Data--Kansas Senate

PollDateSampleMoERoberts (R)Orman (I)Spread
RCP Average 10/2 - 10/12 -- -- 45.2 45.2 Tie
Remington Research Group (R)* 10/9 - 10/12 1091 LV 3.0 48 46 Roberts +2
PPP (D) 10/9 - 10/12 1081 LV 3.0 43 46 Orman +3
FOX News* 10/4 - 10/7 702 LV 3.5 44 39 Roberts +5
CNN/Opinion Research 10/2 - 10/6 687 LV 3.5 49 48 Roberts +1
SurveyUSA* 10/2 - 10/5 549 LV 4.3 42 47 Orman +5

All Kansas Senate - Roberts vs. Orman Polling Data

Tuesday
Oct142014

"Baking The Cake" On Derry TV

Steve Vaillancourt visits the Legislators' Lounge

Published on Oct 8, 2014

Jim and Brian talk to Manchester Representative Steve Vaillancourt. Watch as they talk about the NH House, and Steve's predictions on the upcoming election in November, even the speakers race is talked about.

 

So much has happened, I almost forgot to mention it, but last week, I traveled to Derry to keep a long promised commitment to appear on the Legislators' Lounge community access TV show there.

Hosts were two Derry Reps, Jim Webb and Brian Chirichiello.

They've sent along a link to the show (above); in fact, you should be able to get to all their shows with it.   Now the entire world can see just how beautiful I really am as opposed to that god-awful picture on Huffington Post (for the humor impaired--apparnetly many--I feel compelled to point out that was just a joke).

We talked about a wide range of subjects from my basic political philosophy (libertarian--always fun to talk about) to gambling and marijuana to the speed limit (of course) to the race for Speaker to my latest predictions to No Show Reps.

When they asked me if I had anything else I wanted to mention at the end of the show, I grasped upon my "baking the cake" analogy. People think issues are decided during the session next winter and spring, but in fact, the cake is being baked now. Almost every issue is being decided right now, depending on the candidates who get elected now.

If Democrats retain their majority in the New Hampshire House, we can expect more tax and spending programs (like a tax on paint cans), including a nine percent property tax hike in Hillsborough County like we got the last two years, and more government intrusion into our lives.

If Republicans take the House, we can expect less onerous government, but then comes the caveat that if Republicans receive too large a majority, then we can expect more silliness like personhood and resolutions to withdraw from the U.N. and to oppose Sharia law.

What's a fiscal conservative, social libertarian to do? Hope for some middle ground, but rest assured...the cake is being baked now...not next spring.

Tuesday
Oct142014

Re: Political Beauty, Washington Examiner To The Rescue 

I knew someone would find it and send it along.  Here's the original story, (which I had heard about on Red Eye on Fox News), which reports that more attractive people can have up to a ten percentage point advantage in certain elections.  As I originally reported, the seven percent number also appears in the story.  Also note that, as I reported, it only works "when candidates are of the same sex"...so apprently I was hearing just fine at 3:10 a.m. last Tuesday night.  Thanks to Greg Gutfeld.

Guess what?  It won't come as a surprise that it wasn't a media outlet which locacted this story and sent it along to me.  The media is spending too much time making up its own story to cover the real story, that a legitimate paper has reported that less attractive candidates can suffer as much as ten points.

So much for the Union Leader reporter (Buckland as I recall) who virtually accused me of making the survey up.  He said he couldn't find it; he must have been trying might hard NOT to find it. 

Here's the entire story (with links), from the Washington Examier, based on data from American Politics Research, totally unedited here.  Note the language "extremely unattractive".

 

Pretty candidates enjoy 10% 'beauty premium' from voters

By Paul Bedard | October 6, 2014 | 3:38 pm
Topics:Washington SecretsHouse of Representatives2014 ElectionsCampaignsElections
Paul Bedard,Washington Secrets,House of Representatives,2014 Elections,Campaigns,Elections
Photo - AP Photo AP Photo

House candidates with that Ralph Lauren look gain a “beauty premium” of up to 10 percent in races against more pedestrian-looking challengers, the latest sign the nation’s knowledge or concern for politics is just skin deep, according to a new elections study.

The scholarly report in the prestigious journal American Politics Research and provided to Secrets concluded that “an extremely attractive candidate running against an extremely unattractive candidate can expect to obtain an electoral ‘beauty premium’ of more than 7 percent of the vote.”

“This number alone would be enough to decide most marginal races,” the study said, later adding that the premium could reach 10 percent.

The study from the University of Ottawa of the 2008 House races sneered that American voters are lazy and fickle. The authors said American voters don’t do much research before jumping into the polling booth to make their choice other than sizing up candidates based on their looks.

They also found that voter focus on beauty as a deciding factor for picking candidates has a big limitation. It only works when the candidates are of the same sex.

When the candidates are opposing sexes, voters still base their decision on looks, but instead of beauty they look for indications of competence. But the results are the same, with the candidate perceived as looking more competent getting an edge.

“Voters tend to be easily influenced by good-looking candidates,” said the study. Beauty, it said, is an “easy way out strategy for uninformed voters” sizing up same-sex candidates. When the sexes are different, the study concluded, “the easiest move is to infer, based on physical appearance, which candidate seems to be more competent.”

It doesn’t always work, though. Asked about the Virginia House race in Washington’s suburbs pitting Del. Barbara Comstock and Democrat John Foust, one of the authors picked Foust as more competent. Voters gave Comstock a 12-point lead in a recent poll.

Paul Bedard, the Washington Examiner's "Washington Secrets" columnist, can be contacted at pbedard@washingtonexaminer.com. 
Monday
Oct132014

Candidate's Remarks For Manchester Community TV

Manchester Community TV (Channel 22/23) tells me that they have received fewer candidate responses for three minute presentations for the gneral election than they did for the primary.  Scott Brown and Maggie Hassan, for example, came by for the primary but not this week.

Go figure.

The station also tells me about 80 percent of candidates are now using a Teleprompter (as did I).

I always feel the duy to respond.  Here's what I said.  I begin with a quote which I was going to use for This Week's Trivia (I found it at the outset of Michael Scheuer's book "Imperial Hubris"), but I thought it fit in well here.  Here are my prepared remarks, as close to three minutes as one could imagine.

In his memoirs, the great American Robert E. Lee wrote, "Duty is the sublimest word in our language.  Do your duty in all things.  You cannot do more.  You should never do less."

Hi, I'm Steve Vaillancourt, running for re-election as you State Representative in Ward 8.  I'v always taken those words about duty to heart.  When I first ran for office, I pledged that I would be there close to 100 percent of the time, working to put individual rights and dignity ahead of government intrusion into our lives.

To the greatest extent possible, government should stay out of our wallets, out of our beds, and off our backs.  Government must be the servant of the people, not the other way around.

Ward 8 has elected a long line of Representatives, from Republicans like Frances Riley and Jackie Domaingue to Democrats like Ray Buckley, who, no matter what you might have thought of their views on a given issue, have worked hard to honor that definition of duty.

Sad to say, however, that tradition has been besmirched in recent years as one of my fellow Ward 8 Representatives has simply failed to show up to do the job you send us to Concord to do.  He has not only failed, but he has failed miserably, missing 80 percent of House votes in 2014, missing 64 percent in 2013, and missing 77 percent in 2012. In any grading system, that's not only an F; it's an f minus.

Yes, it's true, Tom Katsiantonis has become the poster child of No Show Representatives, a laughing stock of the State House.  While he works hard to get re-elected, he doesn't show up once he's in office.

And it matters.  You can't do the job if you don't even bother to show up.  For example, as well as serving in Concord, State Reps are required to approve the county budget which is funded from your property taxes.  In the past two years, the county tax rate has increased an astounding nine percent; that's money directly out of your pocket, yet Mr. Kartsiantonis has not showed up for a single meeting.

"Do duty in all things; you cannot do more; you should never do less".

That's what I've lived by, and if re-elected, I will continue to do so.  I ask for your vote on November 4.  We should keep in mind the words of another great American.  Thomas Jefferson reminded us that government which governs least governs best.  Thank you.

 

Monday
Oct132014

Huffington Post Gets It Wrong, Elicits Hate EMail

 

Now I know how my friend Kyle Tasker (not to mention Tim Horrigan and assorted others) feels.  The media never ceases to amaze me with its incredible ability, in its lust to gin up a controversy, twist a statement to the point where the original point is lost and demonization sets in.

In this case, it's the Huffington Post with its decision to post on its front page (see below) my question about whether attractiveness really matters with the electorate. Since HuffPost ran the story, I've received requests from two New Hampshire media (Kathleen Ronayne--no Norma Love in terms of objectively covering a story; that's for sure--at Associated Press and Tim Buckland at the Union Leader) obviously quite anxious to blow this story up out of all proportion.

Ms. Ronayne even suggested I was making this about women when in fact--she's obviously following the Democratic playbook like a loyal media acolyte.  If she had bothered to read my original post, she would have noted how I began with a reference to the Nixon/Kennedy debate back in 1960.  Kennedy, the more attractive candidate, was deemed to have the debate with those who watched on TV; Nixon with those who listened on radio.  Of course, neither JFK nor Nixon was a woman, so my comments can hardly be considered an attack on women...but there's no end to the games the the media won't play in an attempt to follow their Democratic script.

Mr. Buckland emailed me that he is unable to locate the poll I was alluding to.  In fact, I mentioned at the outset of my blog that I had been unable to find it on Google but that I had seen it on the zany Fox News show Red Eye (3-4 a.m.; my comment about falling asleep was obviously a joke).  I trust Red Eye would be willing to provide Mr. Buckland with the data he so desperately seeks; in fact, they might even get back to it tonight. 

The two reporters ask me if I stand by what I wrote.  Stand by the fact that Ms. Garcia is more attractive than Ms. Kuster?  If the reporters themselves don't see that, then they should question their own abilities to function.  In fact, I would not be surprised if they had spoken about it behind the scenes; many my Democratic colleagues (no names please) have told me just how unattractive Ms. Kuster is (in words far harsher than I chose to use).

Huffington Post, as might be expected from a left wing site, chose to run with the story (and a great photo of me), but HuffPost couldn't even get the headline right.  I never said Dem Congresswoman will lose because she's ugly as sin.  In fact, In fact, I've referred to polls showing Rep. Kuster ahead.  I simpoy noted that IF there's any truth to this polling data about attractiveness (again harken back to JFK/Nixon), then Marilinda Garcia would have an edge.  IF.  I know that's a fine point for geniuses at Huffington Post to grasp, but truth in headline writing is something I care about...and they should too.

In fact, anyone who has followed what I've written (more than 500 posts this past year) knows that neither looks nor race nor sexual orientation nor sex matters a whit to me.  Those who point out how unattractive I am, in far more graphic terms than I referred to Ms. Kuster, miss the point.  It's not about me; I've often denigrated my own appearance here and in my old TV show over the years.

How big are my ears?  Thank you for asking.  They are so big that my fifth and sixth grade classmates used to call me Spaceman, a moniker that sadly stuck until I went away to college.

Were Spaceman SV running against Scott Brown, and IF this polling data is accurate, Scott Brown would surely win. 
I suppose I should be surprised that considering Huff Post's nationwide appeal, I haven't received even more mail mindless emails than I have (a sampling below).  It's truly amazing that these people so angry at me are writing things far more vile and offensive than anything I ever suggested, typical of left wing haters.

Actually left wingers are tame compared to the right wing zealots (literally hundreds of them, not just a few) who actually physically threatened me when I wrote about Stand Your Ground last year.  For the benefit of Ms. Royane and Mr. Buckland, I stand by my Stand Your Ground stance and I stand by my question of whether attractiveness (or lack thereof) would cost Ms. Kuster votes.

It's a legitimate question.

As to my colorful language, trust me, I had thought of this analagy before and had decided to censore myself, but in lieu of the poll sited by Red Eye, I thought I'd broach the subject in a humorous manner.  I began the blog with a warning (in fact a "warning...warning...warning") lest the sensitive be offended, and I added the caveat that there's certainly nothing wrong with drag queens; some are quite attactive actually (cue Nathan Lang in Bird Cage).

One of the reporters insisted on telling me that Ms. Garcia and the Republican Party had denounced my comments.  It should be quite clear that I am no slave to any party; in fact, long before I wrote about Ms. Kuster I've been referring to the Party Chair as Jennifer "The First" Horn for her attempts to force Republican candidates to tow the endorsement line.  Hmm...wonder why HuffPost has never picked up on my anti-Republican comments.  I was about ready to say that every time I getr ready to hold my nose and vote for Walt Havenstein, he feels compelled to tie himself to the hip of a many, I truly loathe, Chris Christie, and I can hardly hold the nose any longer.

So here's the HuffPost lead; some data of the Kuster/Garcia race (including the photos; you can be the judge of their attractiveness); a shot from Bird Cage; and some of the more outrageous emails I've received.

 

State Rep: Dem Congresswoman Will Lose Because She's 'Ugly As Sin'
Annie Kuster

Annie Kuster (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Marilinda Garcia

Marilinda Garcia (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

New Hampshire Snapshot

RCP Ranking: Leans Dem
2014 Key Races: Governor | Senate | NH-1

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012President | Governor | NH-1 | NH-2
2010Governor | Senate | NH-1 | NH-2
2008: President | Senate | NH-1
2006: Governor | NH-2
2004: President | Senate | NH-1 | NH-2

Polling Data

PollDateSampleKuster (D)Garcia (R)Spread
New England College 10/3 - 10/3 660 LV 50 38 Kuster +12
WMUR/UNH 9/29 - 10/5 275 LV 37 41 Garcia +4
New England College 9/26 - 9/26 702 LV 50 39 Kuster +11
New England College 9/19 - 9/20 779 LV 49 38 Kuster +11
New England College 9/10 - 9/11 627 LV 50 37 Kuster +13
WMUR/UNH 8/7 - 8/17 312 LV 39 36 Kuster +3
WMUR/UNH 6/19 - 7/1 246 LV 50 36 Kuster +14
WMUR/UNH 4/1 - 4/9 184 LV 34 33 Kuster +1
WMUR/UNH 1/21 - 1/26 218 LV 36 30 Kuster +6

 

_________

______________









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Close
hey you punKKK azz mOfO
neec13@aol.com [neec13@aol.com]
Sent: Monday, October 13, 2014 6:58 PM
To:
 
fucKKK syou mOdO qhilw you aucKKK yo UGLY azz mAmmY'anL POEW
....I'll see you in Hell at the river Styxx
THEN WILL  proceed to Tuck your liddle biddy gonads into your big fUcKKKing mouf
comprende?
NSA on that mOfO?
Dee Purti
(520) 225-9973
ugly as sin
Robert Schaefer [dobberx@yahoo.com]
Sent: Monday, October 13, 2014 7:07 PM
To:
 
You are despicable. Cowardly jackasses like you have no place in government.
Show some honor... RESIGN !
We are spreading the word AND your email address all across social media.

BTW: have you looked in the mirror?

You are as ugly inside as you are outside.

ASSHOLE.

_________________

From: Michelle Williams [letscook1@hotmail.com]

Sent: Monday, October 13, 2014 5:40 PM

To: Vaillancourt, Steve

Subject: Hey

 

You are ugly as all fuck. Look in the mirror.

Sent from my iPhone


rojofo@aol.com [rojofo@aol.com]
Sent: Monday, October 13, 2014 6:20 PM
To:
 
Sir, if looks matter, how in the world did a slug like you ever get elected?