Gambling Tally Sheet--139 Yes, 201 No

Here's your personalized gambling scoresheet, alphabetized.  Since I first posted a sampling of this earlier today, one person called to move from yes to no.  Unlike Channel 9 which seems to ignore messages of change, I will update this immediately when I learn someone is not listed correctly here.

A "yes" here indicates support for the Senate gambling plan which, of course, would mean a no vote on the Inexpedient to Legislate motion and vise-versa.

Unless I know differently, I have taken the WMUR positions.  For others, I have either used past gambling votes (not always an indication of future tendencies, I must admit) or my personal knowledge.  Very rarely, I have moved people to one column for geographic or party reasons.  For example, I moved a few first term Nashua Democrats into the yes column; and a few Carroll or Belknap County Republicans into the no column.

The listing I received seems to have the two newly elected Reps missing; I have added the new Manchester Rep, but the list seems to be one Rep (Nashua short).

It is conceivable that some people might vote against ITL only because they want to hear amendments, but my guess is this number will be only five or so.

In a few cases I've used "lean yes" or "lean no" terminology.

NOTES:

Winters--Since this bill represents a monopoly, an anathema to libertarian types, Joel is the only Libertarian l've listed as yes, and only because that's what he told me.  UPDATE--Joel has been moved to no.

Hatch, Huot, Ulery voted against ITL in committee, but I feel more comfortable leaving them as undecided here.

Rideout emailed me to say that although he supports gambling, he will not vote for this plan, so I moved him from yes to no.

Kaen, the deputy speaker, has voted both for and against gambling in the past.  I had her a lean yes, but feel more comfortable with a straight undecided.

Gionet is listed as a Yes by WMUR; he told me he would not vote for this plan, but I felt more comfortable listing him as undecided.  UPDATE--Edmond, after being a yes and a no, seems to be a yes again.  Come on, Edmond, make up your mind.

Rappaport is a No on WMUR.  A lobbyist insists he should be yes, so I listed him as Und.

 Unk indicates that I have no idea how these Reps are likely to vote.

Und indicates that at least to me they appear truly undecided and may not even know themselves how they will vote.  Rep. Shurtleff, take note.

If my math is correct, the total is 139 Yes and 201 no.

Abrami, Patrick F            Stratham               r               no

Aguiar, James D                Campton             d             no        

Ahlgren, Christopher J  Wolfeboro          r                  yes

Alicea, Caroletta C          Boscawen           d             yes

Allen, Mary M   Newton               r                              yes

Almy, Susan W  Lebanon              d                             no

Ames, Richard   Jaffrey  d                                             yes

Andrews, Christopher R               Bow       d            yes

Andrews-Ahearn, E.   Hampton Falls  d                 yes

Arsenault, Beth R            Laconia d                             no

Azarian, Gary S  Salem   r                                              yes

Baber, William S              Dover    d                            yes

Backus, Robert A              Manchester        d             und

Bailey, Brad        Monroe                r                      lean no

Baldasaro, Alfred P         Londonderry      r              no

Barry, Richard W              Merrimack          r              no

Bartlett, Christy D            Concord               d             no

Beaudoin, Steven P        Rochester           r             no

Beaulieu, Jane E               Manchester        d            yes

Belanger, James P           Hollis    r                              no

Belanger, Ronald J          Salem   r                              yes

Benn, Bernard L                Hanover               d            no

Berch, Paul S      Westmoreland d                            unk

Berube, Roger R               Somersworth    d             yes

Bick, Patrick J     Salem   r                                              no

Bickford, David A             New Durham     r              no

Birdsell, Regina M           Hampstead         r             yes

Bishop, Franklin C           Raymond             r             no

Bixby, Peter W  Dover    d                                          unk

Boehm, Ralph G               Litchfield             r             yes

Boisvert, Ronald R           Manchester        d            yes

Booras, Efstathia C          Nashua d                         yes

Borden, David A               New Castle         d            no

Bouchard, Candace C W                Concord    d       yes           

Bradley, Lester W            Thornton             r           no   

Briden, Steven J               Exeter   d                        yes

Brown, Pamela T              Nashua d                      yes

Brown, Rebecca A           Sugar Hill             d       lean no    

Buco, Thomas L Conway                d                         yes

Burchell, Richard B          Gilmanton Iron Works   r      no      

Burdwood, Greg               Dover    d                      unk

Burke, Rachel B                Farmington        d            no

Burns, Scott A    Franklin               d                         no

Burridge, Delmar D         Keene   d                         no

Burt, John A       Goffstown          r                            no

Burtis, Elizabeth B           Derry     d                          yes

Butler, Edward A              Harts Location   d            yes

Butynski, William            Hinsdale              d            yes

Byron, Frank A  Litchfield             r                            no

Cahill, Michael D              Newmarket        d            unk

Cali-Pitts, Jacqueline A Portsmouth        d             und

Campbell, David B           Nashua d                         yes

Carey, Lorrie J   Boscawen           d                         unk

Carroll, Douglas L             Nashua d                       yes

Carson, Clyde J Warner d                                lean no

Cebrowski, John W         Bedford               r             no

Chandler, Gene G            Bartlett                r             no

Chandley, Shannon E     Amherst              d            no

Charron, Gene P               Chester                r             yes

Chase, Cynthia L               Keene   d                        no

Chirichiello, Brian K        Derry     r                        yes

Christiansen, Lars T         Hudson                r             no

Cloutier, John R                Claremont          d            yes

Coffey, James E                New Ipswich      r             no

Comerford, Timothy P   Fremont              r               no

Comtois, Guy     Center Barnstead            r             no

Connor, Evelyn M            Weare  d                            no

Cooney, Mary R                Plymouth            d            no

Copeland, Timothy D     Stratham             r             unk

Cordelli, Glenn Tuftonboro         r                          no

Cormier, Jane    Alton     r                                       no

Cote, David E     Nashua d                                     yes

Coulombe, Gary M          Berlin    d                        yes

Crawford, Karel A            Ctr Harbor           r             no

Culbert, Patrick L             Pelham                r             unk

Cushing, Robert R            Hampton             d            lean no

Danais, Romeo Nottingham       r                            no

Daniels, Gary L  Milford r                                          no

Danielson, David J           Bedford               r             no

Davis, Frank W  Pembroke           d                           no

DeSimone, Debra L         Atkinson              r             yes

Devine, James E               Sandown             r             yes

DiMartino, Lisa Laconia d                                         unk

DiSilvestro, Linda A        Manchester        d            yes

Dobson, Jeremy S            Manchester        d            yes

Doolan, Ralph J Littleton              r                              no

Duarte, Joe         Candia  r                                         und

Dumaine, Dudley D        Auburn r                              no          

Eaton, Daniel A Stoddard             d                           no

Eaton, Richard S               Greenville          d            unk

Ebel, Karen E     New London      d                           no

Elliott, Robert J Salem   r                                           yes

Emerick, J. Tracy               Hampton             r             unk

Emerson, Susan                Rindge  r                        no

Emerson-Brown, Rebecca            Portsmouth   d  lean no          

Enman, Larry S  Errol      d                                        yes

Ferrante, Beverly A        Derry     r                            yes

Fesh, Robert M Derry     r                                             no

Fields, Dennis H               Sanbornton        r             yes

Fink, Charles R  Belmont              r                          no

Flanagan, Jack B               Brookline            r             no

Flanders, Donald H         Laconia r                          no

Flockhart, Eileen C          Exeter   d                          no

Ford, Susan M   Easton  d                                          no

Frambach, Mary E            Epsom  d                          no

Frazer, June M  Concord               d                          no

French, Barbara C            Henniker             d            no

Friedrich, Carol H             Wentworth        d               no

Friel, William G                Atkinson              r             yes

Gage, Ruth E      Goffstown          d                           yes

Gagne, Larry G   Manchester        r                      lean no

Gagnon, Raymond G       Claremont          d            lean yes

Gale, Sylvia E     Nashua d                                        no

Garcia, Bianca R                Salem   r                         no

Garcia, Marilinda J           Salem   r                           no

Garcia, Michael A             Nashua d                          no

Gardner, Janice S             Dover    d                            unk            

Gargasz, Carolyn M         Hollis    r                           no

Gidge, Kenneth N            Nashua d                           yes

Gile, Mary Stuart              Concord               d            no

Ginsburg, Philip E            Durham                d            no

Gionet, Edmond D           Lincoln r                          yes

Goley, Jeffrey P                Manchester        d            yes

Gordon, Richard E            East Kingston     r           no

Gorman, Mary J                Nashua d                         yes

Gottling, Suzanne H        Sunapee              d            no

Grace, Curtis W Brentwood         r                          no

Grady, Brenda E                Merrimack          d            yes

Graham, John A                Bedford               r             no

Grassie, Anne C                Rochester           d            no

Gray, James P    Rochester           r                            no

Greemore, Robert H       Meredith             r             no

Grenier, James L              Goshen                r             yes

Griffin, Mary E   Windham            r                              yes

Groen, Warren J               Rochester           r             no

Grossman, Kenneth        Barrington          d            yes

Gulick, Ruth P    New Hampton  d                            yes

Hackel, Paul L    Nashua d                                         yes

Haefner, Robert H           Hudson                r             yes

Hagan, Joseph M              Chester                r             yes

Hammon, Marcia             Whitefield          d            unk

Hammond, Jill S               Peterborough   d            no

Hansberry, Daniel C        Nashua d                     lean yes

Hansen, Peter T                Amherst              r             no

Harding, Laurie Lebanon              d                            no          

Harriott-Gathright, Linda              Nashua d            und

Harris, Jeffrey F                Epping  r                            no

Hatch, William A              Gorham                d            und

Hayes, Jack         Atkinson              r                        yes

Heden, Ruth S   Milford d                                          no

Heffron, Frank H              Exeter   d                           no

Helmstetter, Barbara S  Epping  d                           yes

Henle, Paul J      Concord               d                       lean yes

Hess, David W   Hooksett             r                         no

Higgins, Patricia C            Hanover               d           lean no

Hikel, John A     Goffstown          r                           no

Hinch, Richard W             Merrimack          r             yes

Hirsch, Geoffrey D           Bradford              d            no

Hodgdon, Bruce E            Northwood        r             unk

Hoell, J.R.            Dunbarton          r                           no

Hoelzel, Kathleen M      Raymond             r             no

Holmes, Stephen             Alton     r                            no

Hooper, Dorothea D       Dover    d                           no

Hopper, Gary S  Weare  r                                          no

Horrigan, Timothy O       Durham                d            no

Hubbard, Pamela J          Rochester           d            unk

Hunt, Jane J        Concord               d                        unk

Hunt, John B      Rindge  r                                         lean no

Huot, David O    Laconia d                                       lean yes

Infantine, William J        Manchester        r             no

Introne, Robert E             Londonderry      r             no

Irwin, Virginia   Newport              d                            unk

Itse, Daniel C     Fremont              r                            no

Jack, Martin L     Nashua d                                lean yes

Jasper, Shawn N               Hudson                r             no

Jeudy, Jean L     Manchester        d                         yes

Johnsen, Gladys               Keene   d                        yes

Johnson, Jane B                Swanzey              r             no

Jones, Laura M  Rochester           r                             no

Kaen, Naida L    Lee         d                                        und

Kappler, Lawrence M     Raymond             r             no

Karrick, David B                Warner d                            yes

Katsiantonis, George     Manchester        d            ABSENT

Katsiantonis, Thomas    Manchester        d               no

Kelley, John D   Nashua d                                            no

Kelly, Sally H      Chichester          d                            yes

Ketel, Stephen M            Dover    d                             unk

Khan, Aboul B   Seabrook             r                               yes

Kidder, David H                New London      r                no

Knowles, Mary Ann        Hudson                d              yes

Kolodziej, Walter            Windham            r             yes

Kopka, Angeline A          Nashua d                              yes

Kotowski, Frank R            Hooksett             r             yes

Kurk, Neal M      Weare  r                                           no            

Ladd, Rick M       Haverhill             r                       yes

Lambert, George A          Litchfield             r            no

Lauer, Linda D   Bath       d                                       unk

Lavender, Tom  Brookfield          d                           unk

LeBrun, Donald L              Nashua r                       no

Lefebvre, Benjamin P    Grantham            d           yes

Leishman, Peter R           Peterborough   d            yes

Lerandeau, Alfred C       N. Swanzey        d            yes

Levasseur, Nickolas J     Manchester        d            lean yes

LeVasseur, Richard D     Hudson                r             no

Levesque, Melanie A     Brookline            d               no

Ley, Douglas A  Jaffrey  d                                           no

Lockwood, Priscilla P     Canterbury         r             no

Long, Patrick T   Manchester        d                          yes

Lovejoy, Patricia T           Stratham             d            no

Lovett, Sid          Holderness         d                         no

Lundgren, David C           Londonderry      r             no

Luther, Robert A              Laconia r                           no

MacKay, James R              Concord               d            no

MacKay, Mariellen J       Nashua d                             yes

Major, Norman L              Plaistow              r             no

Malloy, Dennis J               Barrington          d            unk

Manley, Jonathan F        Bennington        d            unk

Mann, John E     Alstead                d                         unk

Mann, Maureen R            Deerfield            d            unk

Marston, Dick    Manchester        r                          lean no

Martel, Andre A               Manchester        r             yes

Massimilla, Linda             LIttleton              d            unk

McCarthy, Michael J       Nashua r                            yes

McCloskey, David            Manchester        d            yes

McConkey, Mark E           Freedom             r             yes

McGuire, Carol M             Epsom  r                          no

McGuire, Dan    Epsom  r                                          no

McKinney, Betsy              Londonderry      r             yes

McMahon, Charles E       Windham            r             yes

McNamara, Richard D    Hillsborough      d            unk

Meaney, Richard E          Goffstown          r             no

Menear, H. Robert          Durham                d            yes

Merrow, Harry C               Ctr Ossipee        r             yes

Miller, David P  Rochester           d                           unk

Milz, David E      Derry     r                                         yes

Moffett, Howard M         Canterbury         d            lean no

Moody, Marcia G              Newmarket        d            no

Moynihan, Wayne T       Dummer              d            unk

Mulholland, Catherine  Grafton                d            no

Mullen, John A Middleton          r                              yes

Muns, Chris        Hampton             d                         und

Murotake, David K          Nashua r                         yes

Murphy, Keith   Bedford               r                            no

Murphy, Kelleigh D         Bedford               r             no

Myler, Mel          Contoocook       d                           no

Nelson, Bill G    Brookfield          r                            no

Nelson, Mary S Nashua d                                      yes

Nigrello, Robert L            East Kingston     r             yes

Nordgren, Sharon            Hanover               d            no

Norelli, Terie     Portsmouth        d                            no

Notter, Jeanine M           Merrimack          r             no

O'Brien, Michael B          Nashua d                          yes

O'Brien, William L           Mont Vernon     r             no

O'Connor, John T             Derry     r                      yes

O'Flaherty, Tim Manchester        d                         no

O'Hearne, Andrew S       Claremont          d            unk

O'Neil, William          Manchester            d               yes

Ober, Lynne M  Hudson                r                           yes

Ober, Russell T Hudson                r                            yes

Oligny, Jeffrey D              Plaistow              r             yes

Packard, Sherman A       Londonderry      r             no

Palangas, Eric    Manchester        d                         yes

Palmer, Stephen J           Milford r                            no

Pantelakos, Laura C        Portsmouth        d            yes

Parison, James A              New Ipswich      r             no

Parkhurst, Henry A. L.    Winchester        d              no

Parsons, Robbie L            Milton  r                              no

Pastor, Beatriz  Lyme     d                                           no

Patten, Dick W  Concord               d                        yes

Peckham, Michele S       North Hampton       r       unk          

Pellegrino, Tony J            Merrimack          r             und

Pelletier, Marsha L          Dover    d                      lean no

Perkins, Amy S  Seabrook             r                        yes

Perkins, Lawrence B       Seabrook             r             yes

Perry, Robert J  Strafford              d                            no

Peterson, Lenette M      Merrimack          r                  no

Phillips, Larry R Keene   d                                          no

Piper, Wendy A                Enfield d                              no

Pitre, Joseph A Farmington        r                                no

Porter, Marjorie A           Hillsborough      d                no

Pratt, Calvin D   Goffstown          r                                no

Priestley, Anne K             Salem   r                            yes

Ramsey, Peter E               Manchester        d            yes

Rappaport, Laurence M Colebrook           r              unk

Ratzki, Mario F  East Andover     d                             yes

Raymond, Ian P                Sanbornton        d            no

Reed, Dennis     Franklin               r                             yes

Reilly, Harold T Hill         r                                             yes

Renzullo, Andrew           Hudson                r             no

Rhodes, Brian D                Nashua d                            yes

Rice, Chip L         Concord               d                          no

Rice, Frederick C              Hampton             r             no

Richardson, Gary B          Hopkinton          d            no

Richardson, Herbert D   Lancaster             r               yes

Rideout, Leon H               Lancaster             r             no ?

Roberts, Kris E   Keene   d                                           no

Robertson, Timothy N   Keene   d                              no

Rogers, Katherine D       Concord               d              yes

Rogers, Rose Marie         Rochester           d            no

Rokas, Ted          Manchester        d                             yes

Rollins, Skip       Newport              r                              yes

Rollo, Deanna S                Rollinsford         d            yes

Rosenwald, Cindy           Nashua d                            no

Rowe, Robert H                Amherst              r             no

Sad, Tara A          Walpole               d                          no

Sanborn, Laurie J             Bedford               r             no

Sandblade, Emily C         Manchester        r             no

Sanders, Elisabeth N      Danville               r             no

Sapareto, Frank V            Derry     r                            yes

Scarlotto, Joe W               Portsmouth        d            yes

Schamberg, Thomas C   Wilmot d                           yes

Schlachman, Donna L     Exeter   d                          no

Schmidt, Andrew R         Grantham            d            no

Schmidt, Janice E             Nashua d                         yes

Schmidt, Peter B              Dover    d                        no

Schmidt, Stephen J         Wolfeboro          r             yes

Schroadter, Adam R        Newmarket        r             no

Schuett, Dianne E            Pembroke           d            yes

Sedensky, John B             Hampstead         r             yes

Shackett, Jeffrey S          Bridgewater       r               no

Shattuck, Gilman C          Hillsborough      d            no

Shaw, Barbara E                Manchester        d            yes

Shepardson, Marjorie J Marlborough     d                no

Sherman, Thomas M      Rye        d                        no

Shurtleff, Stephen J       Penacook            d            und

Smith, Marjorie K            Durham                d            no

Smith, Steven D               Charlestown      r             yes

Smith, Suzanne J              Hebron d                        no

Smith, Timothy J              Manchester        d            no

Smith, Todd P    Hooksett             r                            no

Soucy, Timothy A             Nashua d                         yes

Souza, Kathleen F            Manchester        r             no

Spainhower, Dale S        Somersworth    d            yes

Spang, Judith T Durham                d                          no

Spratt, Stephen P            Greenville          d            yes

St.James, Kevin P            Kingston              r             yes

Stevens, Audrey M         Rochester           d            yes

Straight, Philip N             Merrimack          r             und

Stroud, Kathleen M        Merrimack          r             yes

Sullivan, Daniel J             Manchester        d            yes

Sullivan, Peter M             Manchester        d            no

Sweeney, Cynthia P       Charlestown      d            yes

Sweeney, Joe    Salem   r                                          yes

Sweeney, Shawn P         Milford r                          no

Sykes, George E                Lebanon              d          no 

Sylvia, Michael J               Belmont              r             no

Sytek, John         Salem   r                                         no

Takesian, Charlene F      Pelham                r             unk

Tamburello, Daniel J      Londonderry      r             no

Tanner, Linda L Georges Mills    d                              unk

Tasker, Kyle J     Nottingham       r                               no

Tatro, Bruce L    Swanzey              d                             yes

Theberge, Robert L         Berlin    d                               yes

Thomas, Yvonne D          Berlin    d                            yes

Thompson, David H        Derry     r                       lean yes

Ticehurst, Susan J            Tamworth           d            no

Till, Mary L          Derry     d                                          no

Tilton, Franklin T              Laconia r                         no

Tilton, Joy K       Northfield          d                              yes

Townsend, Charles L      Canaan d                       no

Tremblay, Stella S           Auburn r                             no

Tucker, Pamela Z             Greenland          r             no

Turcotte, Alan J                Allenstown        d            unk

Ulery, Jordan G Hudson                r                         und

Umberger, Karen C         Kearsarge            r             no

Vadney, Herbert R          Meredith             r             no

Vail, Suzanne M               Nashua d                        unk

Vaillancourt, Steve         Manchester        r             no

Verschueren, James       Dover    d                       unk

Villeneuve, Moe              Bedford               r             no

Wall, Janet G     Madbury              d+r                      no

Wallner, Mary Jane         Concord               d            no

Walsh, Robert M              Manchester        d            yes

Walsh, Thomas C             Hooksett             r             unk

Walz, Mary Beth E           Bow       d                           no

Ward, Gerald W.R.          Portsmouth        d            no

Ward, Kenneth J              Rollinsford         d            yes

Warden, Mark   Manchester        r                            no

Waterhouse, Kevin K     Windham            r             yes

Watrous, Rick H                Concord               d            no

Wazlaw, Brian   Portsmouth        d                          no

Webb, James C Derry     r                                       yes

Webb, Leigh A  Franklin               d                        lean yes

Weber, Lucy M  Walpole               d                          no

Weed, Charles F               Keene   d                        no

Weyler, Kenneth L          Kingston              r             yes

White, Andrew A             Lebanon              d            no

White, Syndi G  North Conway   d                           no

Whittemore, Lisa I          Londonderry      d            und

Willette, Robert F           Milford r                              no

Williams, Carol A             Manchester        d            yes

Williams, Kermit R          Wilton  d                           yes

Winters, Joel F  Nashua d                                       no

Woodbury, David            New Boston       d            no

Worsman, Colette           Meredith             r             no

Wright, Donald S   Moultonborough        r             lean no

Young, Harry L   Jaffrey  d                                       yes

Speaker And Media Notwithstanding, Gambling Vote Will Not Be Close

Even Speaker Terie Norelli, who has yet to take a public position for or against expanded gambling, is quoted in the media today saying next week's vote will be close.

 Lobbyists on both sides seem to be saying it'll be close.

 The media is salivating in their hopes for a close vote.

 Perhaps it all depends on what your definition of close is; the first person I asked today said ten votes would be close.  If that's your definition, this vote will not be close.

 Even after a few adjustments for votes from committee members yesterday, I have the margin at 60 votes, approximately 200-140 as it now stands.  That would be 200-140 in favor of the Inexpedient to Legislate motion or if you prefer 140-200 in favor of the bill.  We're into the realm where Yes really does mean No and No means Yes.

WMUR at long last has done an update.  They have finally moved Rep. Barry from Yes to No, where I've had him all along.  Apparently it takes a vote before the WMUR folks will correct their errors.

WMUR now has nos ahead 138-112, but they list now list five people (and I've informed James Pindell of this at least twice, so he's had plenty of time to verify) as Yes who are rather firm Nos.  Make those corrections, and even the WMUR margin is 36 votes, 143-107.

 Yes, it's time to name names.  What with Jodi facing death today and O.J. taking a stab at getting a new trial (ugh!  I know, but I had to work it in), it'll be a great personal sacrifice but hopefully by the end of the day, I'll be able to post a list of all 396 Reps (three seats vacant and GeorgetheK nowhere to be found).  Not only that, I'll do it in a format (alphabetical) far easier to follow than the WMUR town by town approach.

 For now, allow me to name three Reps who insist they are Nos while WMUR still has them in the Yes column:  James Aguiar of Campton, Tim Horrigan of Durham, and Tim Comerford of Fremont.  Two other Reps (Larry Gage of Manchester and Joe Pitre, of Farmington) I would also move from the Channel 9 Yes to No column.

 I just received an email from Rep. Mario Ratzki. of East Andover, noting that he is a Yes, but this doesn't change anything.  He's been listed as a Yes all along.

 What we need to ferret out now are stances of undecided Reps or even more importantly, those who might change positions.

 I also have a list of key undecided Reps.  Dan Eaton, of Stoddard, was one of them, and his vote against gambling yesterday must be viewed as more than a simple addition of one vote since he's on the list of people who absolutely must change for SB152 to have even a slight chance.  One of my other key undecideds came out as a No yesterday, but I promised him/her anonymity.

 The one thing that could make things closer in my calculation is the preponderance of first term Democrats in the list of 60 unknown/undecided Reps I currently have.  At least on Ways and Means, first term Democrats broke to the yes side while more veteran Democrats still appear to be, for the most part, staunch nos.

 So far, I've found that undecideds have been breaking more to the No than Yes side, but let's go way out on a limb and say that undecideds break two to one (40-20) in favor of SB172.  That would merely reduce the margin from 60 votes down to 40.  Also many Republicans are among the 60, and I fully expect most of them to break to the No side as the loyal opposition to the governor.  The more Hassanick pressure brought to bear on Democrats (one of the most tenured Democrats in the House just told me she'll be going into the corner office next Monday), the more Republican fence sitters can be expected to oppose the bill.

 My bottom line remains that, unless you define close as 40 votes, next week's vote will be the opposite of close.

 As always absences must be considered, but they usually tend to break proportionately about the same for and against a bill, so even if there are 50 or so Reps absent (and it could well be less than that for such a heavily lobbied bill), don't expect the margin to change much.

 Here's the big question of the day.

Speakers rarely leave the rostrum and come down to the well to speak.  I remember Speaker Norelli did so a few years back in support of the transgender bill (I applauded her for it).  What are the chances that Speaker Norelli will wait till the last minute and then decide to speak out against this bill?  Most of her leadership is aligned against it, but then she would be going against her Democratic governor.  My guess is she will wield a fair gavel and say nothing...except to tell the media that she expects a close vote.

The Day Of The Blue Shirts

If you're a history fan like I am (in fact, I'm currently trying to navigate the great Alan Bullock's 1000-page dual biography "Hitler and Stalin:  Parallel Lives"), you've undoubtedly heard of Brown Shirts and Black Shirts.

Neither would be politically correct these days of course, so I may be taken to task for even mentioning it, but as the 45-member gambling panel met to vote this afternoon, the audience was crowded with what we might term Blue Shirts.

Apparently some labor group, shades of when Bill O'Brien was Speaker, had deluded itself into thinking it might swing a few votes if they stacked the crowd with people all wearing the same pro casino blue shirt.  "Yes on 152" was emblazoned on the shirts.  One can only wonder who paid for them.

One can only wonder if the wearers actually believed such tactics would sway votes.

Among the blue shirt wearers was one of my friends (at least I thought so) from Ward 8, Manchester.  I felt the need to explain how I too support expanded gambling, just not this plan which provides only 30 percent to the state as opposed to 55 percent in past versions and which virtually guarantees that Manchester would be cut out of even a small piece of the gambling action.

My plan was tailor-made for a 600-machine facility somewhere in the South Willow or downtown area.  But, this blue shirt wearer asked me if it wouldn't take longer to get up and running.  The answer is--no, not at all.  In fact, since enough infrastructure is already in place for a 600-machine mini facility, the place could be up and running almost immediately after getting a license.

But no, we would forever be pre-empted from a small facility in Manchester or Hudson or Seabrook or Hinsdale or Loudon or Lincoln or any place else if Millennium and Salem hog all 5000 machines.

That's not the kind of plan I support, my blue-shirted friends.

By stacking the House with blue-shirted backers, the casino supporters left no room for the number one backer, Senator Lou D'Allesandro, to sit down; he was forced to sit at the press table.

I know, I know, "Parallel Lives" is 20 years old.  In fact, I bought it back when it first came out and from the underlining, it seems I managed to get through the Hitler parts back then, but I got bogged down with all those long Russian names and skipped the Stalin sections.  As penance for a winter of reading too much crime fiction (Harlan Coben), I'm forcing myself to a spring of tough history.  Note the heading here is not only an analogy to brown shirts, but also to Night of The Long Knives (a good trivia question some week; I could list five people and ask you who survived the night; don't say Rohm, Hitler's homosexual head of the Brown Shirts who was slaughtered during that purge).

Suffice it to say that I've never been a fan of members of any group sacrificing their individuality for any specious reason, especially the wearing of silly shirts in a quixotic attempt to sway opinion!  Not that I'd ever make a law to deny them their free speech.  As I stated in the Stella episode, free speech allows anybody to say or do any stupid thing that body so desires.   It simply strikes me as an unproductive attempt at bullying...not that there's anything wrong with that.

Is there?

Verizon Protection Amendment In Limbo

Since no gambling amendments were brought forward to be voted on, we didn't get a sense of how Manchester Represenative/Alderman Pat Long's Verizon Protection Amendment would have fared.

The amendment would have blocked any casino from building an entertainment venue (that is to say concert hall) with more than 1500 seats. 

Sources tell me that it was not one of the 18 amendments presented this morning, but it was included in one of the omnibus amendments proposed.  The omnibus amendments were never voted on by any of the full subcommittees either, so the Long plan appears to be in legislative limbo.

Since House rules prevent mention of any amendments as long as the pending motion is Inexpedient To Legislate and since I expect the ITL motion to carry, we will most likely never hear of the Long/Verizon Protection Plan on the House floor.

My guess is that even though Verizon would thus be in jeopardy if SB152 passes, a majority of Manchester Democrats will still vote for the gambling bill; never underestimate the desire of Manchester Democrats to put their governor ahead of their city!

Speaking of Manchester Democrats, SB152 sponsor Lou D’Allesandro, whose previous gambling bills allowed the state to keep up to 55 percent of revenues unlike the 30 percent with this bill, slipped into the committee room and was sitting at the press table during the 23-22 vote to ITL his bill.

From 55 percent for the state in 2004 to a mere 30 percent this year, to quote Howard Cossell, "Who would have believed it?!"

Super Committee Strikes Down Gambling 23-22

Pro gambling lobbyists are already spinning the closeness of the recommendation (23-22) to kill the Senate gambling bill (SB152) as good news, but there's no way of judging how many votes were simply procedural rather than in favor of gambling.

At least three or four members of the committee seemed to be against the gambling bill, but were voting against the ITL (kill) motion as a protest against not being allowed to vote on one of all of 18 amendments which were on their desks this morning.

As Chairman of the committee, Mary Jane Wallner made the decision to accept the ITL motion from Rep. Patricia Lovejoy, of Stratham, seconded by Rep. John Kelley, of Nashua.

The first indication that the vote would be closer than expected was when Hudson Republican Jordan Ulery, who earlier told me he was against the bill, voted against the ITL motion because he wanted to consider the amendments first.

In other work, the bill conceivably would have failed by more than the one vote margin had the chair allowed the amendments to be voted on first.

We'll never know, but there were a few surprises.

Dan Eaton, of Stoddard, whom I had as undecided, voted for the ITL.

Bill Hatch, of Gorham, whom I had as leaning against gambling, voted against ITL.

Despite heavy pressure from Democratic leadership, Susan Ford, of Sugar Hill, voted for ITL. 

Despite heavy pressure from some in Salem, Marilinda Garcia voted in favor of ITL.

Three Ways and Means freshmen Democrats chose to side with their governor rather than their committee chair (Susan Almy).  Voting against ITL were Richard Ames and Harry Young, both from Jaffrey, and David Karrick, of Warner.  I'll be sure to change them in my overall total listings, but be aware, others are changing the other way as well.

Ways and Means members appeared to be split 10-10 on the motion which means Finance members must have been 13-12 in favor of the ITL motion.

Others can run the numbers, but there appears to be real evidence that first termers were far most likely to vote against ITL while veterans Reps were anxious to dispose of gambling as a revenue solution.  Note, for example, that in those with seniority are first on the roll listing and I will list names as they appear on the roll in totals here.

Here's how everyone voted, Democrats from Finance listed first; remember a yes vote is to kill the  gambling bill; a no vote would have kept it alive for other motions to come. 

Wallner yes

Rosenwald yes

Nordgren yes

Eaton yes

Benn yes

Leishman no

Buco no

Huot no (a surprise to me; this may not be an indication that he favored the bill, simply that he didn't want to see it killed prior to amendments being offered)

Lerandeau no

Hatch no

Rogers no

Ford yes

Spratt no

Walsh no

Now Finance Republicans:

Kurk yes

Weyler (absent; Priestly voted for him) no

Lynne Ober no

Elliott no

Allen no

Garcia yes

Barry yes

Cebrowski yes

Umberger yes

Dan McGuire yes

Worsman yes

Now Ways and Means Democrats

Almy yes

Lovejoy yes

Butynski no

Davis yes

Shattuck yes

Kelley yes

Cooney yes

Ames no

Karrick (another surprise to me) no

Schamberg no

Young no

Now Republicans on Ways and Means:

Major yes

Griffin no

Hess yes

Sapareto no

Ulery no

Russ Ober no

Abrami yes

Azarian no

Sanborn yes

Finance Democrats--6 for ITL, 8 against ITL

Finance Republicans--7 for ITL, 4 against ITL

Finance Total--13 for ITL, 12 against ITL

Ways and Means Democrats--6 for ITL, 5 against ITL

Ways and Means Republicans--4 for ITL, 5 against ITL

Ways and Means Total--10 for ITL, 10 against ITL

Total Republicans--11 for ITL; 9 against ITL

Total Democrats--12 for ITL; 13 against ITL

24 committee members spoke.  The words "do the right thing" in favor of the gambling plan were uttered twice, including Ways and Means Democrat Thomas Schamberg from Wilmot (I kept track because I have long been convinced that "do the right thing" is really a pathetic argument; we all after all are trying to do the right thing with each and every vote).

I took notes on all 24 orations (a throwback to my days as a reporter; although I can type faster than I can scribble), but will mention here only the one I agreed with most (after all the matter of Jodi's life or death is being decided even as I sit here).  Former Ways and Means Republican Chair Norm Major, of Plaistow, actually summoned passion to note something I've been saying for weeks now, that the bulk of the money with this bill will flow to out of state to out of state owners.  (After all, Millennium gets to keep 70 percent of earnings as opposed to only 45 percent in previous incarnations of D’Allesandro bills). There is only so much money to go around and with it leaving the state to go to Millennium in Las Vegas, jobs and businesses here, Major asserted, will be hurt. 

A big thumbs up to Norm Major.

Even as lobbyists left the room claiming Chairman Wallner's tactics will come back to haunt anti-gambling forces, I see very little change from the 60-vote plus defeat I forecast yesterday.

Clearly, however, first term Democrats are in for the arm twisting of their young legislative lives as they get called into the corner office to hear how the state really needs the up front money this bill would provide.  Yes, I would contend, there's $80 million in up front, but the state loses more than a billion dollars in the long run with this plan.

Norm Major sees that; others should as well.

The House is expected to vote on the bill next week, limiting the time for Hassanick pressure on first term Dems.

House rules do not allow for ideas from amendments to be mentioned in floor speeches until the ITL motion is disposed of.  Thus, depending on how strictly Speaker Norelli enforces that rule, gambling forces could well be extremely hamstrung.