Rep Steve Vaillancourt



Saturday
Aug232014

Obama At Minus 22 In NH--That's The Real Story

The WMUR Granite State poll, from Andy Smith at UNH, showing Missouri-native Jeanne Shaheen now in a dead heat with Scott Brown exploded like a tidal wave across the political landscape today.

However, there may be far worse news for Democrats than the 46-44 lead for Shaheen over Brown.

According to the UNH numbers, President Barack Obama is now 22 points (37-59) under water in New Hampshire.  That's more than twice as much as nationwide; Obama's actually experienced a slight blip up and now is "only" down ten points in the RCP average.

If this 22 point deficit for Obama in New Hamsphire is anywhere near correct (and I've always trusted the UNH numbers), then Democrats up and down the ticket will be in even worse trouble than I had in my projection a couple weeks ago; I had the NH House going 239-161 Republican and the Senate going 15-9 Republican.  

As I've always said, "Top of the ticket matters", and a minus 22 at the top could sink all Democratic ships (except of course in the traditional liberal bastions such as Keene, Concord, Portsmouth, Durham, Lebanon/Hanover, and Berlin).

I was about to predict that Republicans would gain one Executive Council seat (David Wheeler in the Nashua area), but unless Obama's numbers pick up, Democrat Chris Pappas could also be in trouble in Manchester (unless of course Republicans do something stupid like nominating the incompetent Bobby Burns again--I agree with the Union Leader on this one--vote for Adams on Sept. 9).

Even incumbent Manchester Democratic Senators, Lou D'Allesandro in District 16 and Donna Soucy in District 18, might not be safe.

I'm not ready to predict that, but these UNH numbers couldn't be worse for Democrats.

Compounding the pain will be poor Democratic turnout, set in motion by what should be a pathetic primary turnout.

A Washington Post story, run by Real Clear Politics today, tells the sad story for Democrats. In the mid-summer poll which showed Shaheen ahead of Brown by 12 points, more Democrats than Republicans were included in the survey (37R-42D).  That's not the way it was for the most recent poll (40R-39D) it's not the way it was in 2012 actual voting (30R-27D); and it certainly won't be the way it is come this November.  

Results, of course, are closely tied to just who is surveyed.

As my black jack dealing cousin Eddie used to say, "Read 'em and weep."

Democrats will certainly want to weep when they read this turnout chart released today. 

Here's a link to the story; trust me, the charts alone make this worth a click. 

I checked the Huffington Post Pollster site, and some on the left are discounting the UNH poll, noting that we need confirmation before taking it as gospel. Harry Enten at fivethirtyeight.com joins that chorus (another link), and indeed it's always good to have more than one poll.  However, wanna bet that the next few polls are pretty much in line with the UNH numbers?

ELECTION 2014

Don’t Be So Quick To Call The New Hampshire Senate Race A Tie

Friday
Aug222014

97 Percent Broke The Law Last Hour

Unlike in New Hampshire, they offer free (donations) coffee here.

From the wonderful Vietnam Veterans Memorial Rest area, about 10 miles into Vermont.  My brother has dinner waiting so, this will be quick.

To quote Jack Webb from Dragnet, "Just the facts m'aam; just the facts."

These are the facts.

For the 60 miles on Interstate 89 between Concord and Lebanon between 5:45 and 6:45 p..m. on this Friday, the 22nd day of August, 2014, I stuck to the 65 mile an hour speed limit.

Exactly 60 cars passed me, thus breaking the speed limit; that would be one a minute.

How many cars did I have to pass to maintain the 65 mile an hour speed, you may ask.

Thank you for asking.

The answer is TWO, and one of the two was hauling a piece of heavy equipment.

That's also a fact.

60-2, that's the number of law breakers on today's little excursion.  

Most were not going real fast--that's an observation more than a fact.  In other words, most would have been law abiding citizens had the Represenatives of the great and good General Court of New Hampshire passed my bill to raise the limit to 70 miles an hour (as Maine recently did) last winter.

The fact is that the law made 97 percent of travelers on this rainy Friday criminals.

Thursday
Aug212014

The Worst Of Times For "Dignitary" Shaheen

PHOTOS

Jeanne Shaheen and Scott Brown

 

To paraphrase the first line of Charles Dickens' A Tale of Two Cities, "For Jeanne Shaheen, it was the worst of times; it was the worst of times."

According to the new WMUR Granite State Poll (from Andy Smith at UNH), Shaheen's 12-point lead over Scott Brown from a month ago is all but gone.  It's down to within the margin of error, 46-44 percent, and it could be even worse than that.  I can't wait to see the internals of this poll because I've said for months now that Brown will get a bounce when (and if) he wins the September primary and Republicans begin to come home.  If in fact Brown is not yet polling well among Republicans, he could actually be ahead of Shaheen when the mid-September bounce comes.

It was the worst of times.
Missouri-native Shaheen is also leading the other two Republicans in the field, former Senator Bob Smith and former State Senator Jim Rubens, by only 14 points.  It begins to look like Brown may not be the only one who could oust the Missouri native come November.

It was the worst of times.
One cannot imagine that Shaheen's kerfuffle with a chicken earlier this week is the reason for the narrowing of the polls, but perhaps the episode is symbolic of Shaheen's troubles.
In the Channel 9 report of the chicken-dressed Republican operative arrested for the unpardonable sin (sarcasm, some say, is the lowest form of humor; I disagree) of getting too close to "the dignitary" at a parade, that's the word actually used--dignitary.  I'm not making this up; I saw it with my own eyes.

What could be worse for a candidate than to be described as a "dignitary"?  I guess Your Royal Highness or perhaps Your Excellency would be a bit worse, but you get the picture.

It was the worst of times.
The chicken apparently ruffled Shaheen's feathers to the point where she either asked the police to intervene or did not object to police intervention.  So much for free speech from Democratic candidates!  One can only imagine what Shaheen and Company would do if forced to react to the free speech efforts back in her native Missouri (Ferguson) this week.
Outrage is the best term for a "dignitary" being so upset by a chicken that police need to be called in.
Of course chickens are not new to the political stage.  I seem to recall how Democrats have used similar chicken suits in the past, apparently without any of the Democratic chickens being arrested.
I guess it all depends on whose ox is being gored...or perhaps whose feathers are being plucked.

Speaking of chickens, I certainly can't be the only one who remembers current Democratic Chair Raymond Charles Buckley resorting to throwing hunks of real chicken in his 2004 campaign against Executive Councilor Ray Wieczorek. As I recall, Buckley, who lost to the Wiz by nearly 15,000 votes, actually threw frozen chicken at Wieczorek who apparently did not resort to asking to have Buckley, the chicken tosser, arrested.

When Democrats like Buckley pull a free speech ploy, that's fine.  
When Republicans do it, call in the swat team.  Next time, maybe Shaheen will be asking for tear gas to be deployed against chicken maligners.

Ah yes, it was the worst of times.
I suspect the real reason Shaheen is slippin in the polls, aside from being described as a "dignitary" is that at a time when new polling shows that by almost a two to one margins people would rather be left alone than helped by government, Shaheen typifies the nanny state or the big brother approach to government.  She is, after all, the reason the disastrous Obamacare actually passed and her commercials continue to stress the need...not to control the our porous borders...to have government intrude in loan rates charged to students.
Whoever came up with that ad ought to be fired forthwith (I trust it wasn't my friend Judy Reardon); the ad merely stresses what a big government slave Jeanne Shaheen was, is and will remain. 
Shaheen's lead today is merely chicken feed.  By mid-September,
I suspect the lead will have completely flown the coop.
Ah yes, it is worst of times.

 

 

shaheen chicken
  1. Twitchy ‎- 2 days ago
    Well, we at Twitchy certainly got a kick out of that photo of New Hampshire Democrat Sen. Jeanne Shaheen being stalked by a giantchicken for ...
Thursday
Aug212014

Pat Buchanan vs. Richard Nixon And Woodrow Wilson

Young Buchanan with middle-aged Nixon.
I've long believed that Woodrow Wilson was our worst President ever, so you can imagine how surprised I was when Pat Buchanan, in his new book The Greatest Comeback, How Richard Nixon Rose from Defeat to Create the New Majority", reveals that Wilson was Nixon's favorite President.
Can there be no end of layers to this enigma we best remember as Tricky Dick?
Buchanan begins by noting that for most people, their life's beliefs are formed either between three and seven years of age or in college.  Nixon was born in January, 1913; thus his childhood years came at the time Wilson, the most sublime hypocrite in our history, was trying to make the world safe for democracy.
Buchanan refers to Nixon, his old boss, as a Wilsonian idealist and proceeds to destroy the views of both Wilson and Nixon.  
Buchanan reveals how Nixon quoted Wilson more than any other man; indeed there was a fixation for Wilson in Nixon's mind.  Buchanan claims that in the decisive speech of his first term, an appeal to the Silent Majority, Nixon invoked Wilson and "identified with the tragic figure of history and icon of his youth."
While Vietnam could certainly never be confused with "the war to end all wars", Nixon stressed the need of American involvement in the world, a lame plea that provided him cover to escalate the war (and commit atrocities) after he had promised to end it.
It should come as no surprise that I agree with Buchanan rather than Nixon and Wilson who were content to waste our blood and treasures in an attempt to police the world, in two separate decades.
Here's how Buchanan argues against Nixon and Wilson (page 192 of the book).
"One also sees how far Wilson't thought departs from the men who created America.  Why should any millions of Americans die for the final freedom of the peoples of the world?  When had the freedom of the captive peoples of six contents become the moral responsibility of the soldiers and sailors of the United States who would, one day, have to lay down their lives in the millions to sustain it?  When had Wilson, an avowed segregationist, become concerned about the colonized black, brown, and yellow peoples of the earth?  Had Wilson not himself taken us into war as an "associate power" of the British, French, Russian, Italian, and Japanese empires?  Had he and those empires not carved up Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, and divided and distributed the spoils at Versailles?"

Good stuff.
I'll take the wisdom of Pat Buchanan over the interventionist mentality of Wilson and Nixon any day?
And guess what?  If that makes both Buchanan and me advocates of Barack Obama's foreign policy, so be it. As Buchanan said in an earlier book, ours is a republic, not an empire.

As for my own early childhood years, ah yes...Eisenhower was in the White House...peace and prosperity reigned...and all we had to worry about was total destruction in a mushroom cloud, but at least we had hula hoops and silly putty.
Thursday
Aug212014

This Week's Trivia--Duck F--ks Football

                The older you are, the more likely you’ll have little trouble answering this question, even without hints.

                It comes from Pat Buchanan’s new book “The Greatest Comeback, How Richard Nixon Rose from Defeat to Create the New Majority.”

                Actually, the two quotes I’ll note here are not new; I believe I once used the duck quote on my old TV show.

                Obviously in writing about Nixon’s victory in 1968, Buchanan goes into much detail about other candidates running that year.

                Buchanan opts to use __________ rather than the “f” word, and indeed when I googled it, “make love” was used in lieu of the “f” word, but I think we can assume that Ohio Governor Jim Rhodes in fact used the “f” word when he referred to one of Nixon’s opponents that year.

                Which opponent of Nixon was Rhodes referring to when he said watching the man run for President was like “a duck trying to ______ a football”?

                Hint—Gene McCarthy, another candidate in 1968, was referring to the same man when, reacting to a comment about the candidate’s brainwashing, quipped, a full brainwashing had been unnecessary ; “a light rinse would have sufficed.”

                As if that double dose of venom isn’t enough, Buchanan quotes the candidate, trying to defend his reference to an opportunist by saying, “All politicians are opportunists.  It hasn’t any bad connotation for me.  Why, I call my best friends sons of bitches?”

                Ah yes, Buchanan takes at least three whacks…at which Nixon opponent from 1968?

 

Ronald Reagan

Nelson Rockefeller

Chuck Percy

George Romney

 Robert F. Kennedy

 

                For the answer, let’s go to page 108 of Buchanan’s book.  He writes, “When Romney was undergoing this scourging in the winter and spring of 1967, son Mitt was turning twenty in France, where he had gone as a Mormon missionary.  The brutal treatment of his dad would endure almost without interruption until Romney dropped out of the race a year later, two weeks before the New Hampshire primary.  One can imagine what the son went through as he watched from afar what was happening to the father he revered.”

                Yes, the brainwashed one was George Romney, and now we know how Mitt was schooled in the art of gaffes (like the $10,000 bet).  The fruit doesn’t fall far from the tree.

                As for Buchanan’s book it’s a quick read and provides some new information for those hooked of Tricky Dick (Nixon’s tour of the Middle Eat at the time of the Six Day War is especially revealing; not matter what you think of him—and he was indeed a crook—the man knew his foreign policy).  My biggest quibble is that the book tends to be more about Buchanan himself than about the First Crook he worked for.   Of course, there’s nothing wrong with that—Buchanan is almost as fascinating as Nixon-- but that’s not how the book is advertised.

 

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