Rep Steve Vaillancourt



Thursday
Nov062014

Final Actual Numbers Vs. Predictions

Updated and corrected Friday, November 17

 

While we're still awaiting a few results for the New Hampshire House (including three ties and other races going to recounts) and a few U.S. House numbers, enough data is in to update the predictions I posted Monday.  I have copied that posting exactly as it was and am now simply adding the final results in bold underlining next to it.  In the top four predictions, every winner was correct, so we're only concerned with final percentages here.  I'm hearing there might be a recount requested in the NH District 7 Senate race, won narrowly (9543-9411)by Democrat Andrew Hosmer over Kathleen Lauer-Rago (as predicted here, including the narrow margin).  No commentary is required.

 

New Hampshire U.S. Senate

Jeanne Shaheen (D)--51.5%----51.6%

 Scott Brown (R)--48.5%-----48.4%

 

 New Hampshire Governor

Maggie Hassan (D)--53%----52.6%

Walt Havenstein (R)--47%----47.4%

 

New Hampshire First Congressional District

Frank Guinta (R)--53%---51.8%

Carol Shea Porter (D)--47%---48.2%

 

New Hampshire Second Congressional District

Annie Kuster (D)--54%---55%

Marilinda Garcia (R)--46%---45%

 

United States House

2012 Election--Republicans 234, Democrats 201

Final Prediction +12R--246R-189D

Actual +15R (most likley)--249R-186D

 

United States Senate--FLIP

2012 Election--Democrats (with two independents) 55, Republicans 45

Final Prediction +9R--54R-46D

 Actual +9R--54R-46D (assuming LA goes R in December as expected)

 

New Hampshire House--FLIP

2012 Election--Democrats 219, Republicans 181

Final Prediction +69R--250R-150D

Actual +58R--239R-160D, 1 Other  (In recounts, Democrats won two of three ties) 

 

New Hampshire Senate

2012 Election--13 Republicans, 11 Democrats

Final Prediction +1R--14R-10D

Actual +1R--14R-10D 

 

New Hampshire Executive Council--FLIP

2012 Election--3 Democrats, 2 Republicans

Final Prediction +1R--3R, 2D

Actual--+1R--3R, 2D

Wednesday
Nov052014

A Better Prognosticator Than A Candidate

  • Battle for the Senate: How the Republicans Pulled Off Huge Win
  • The GOP Breaks Dems' Blue Wall
  • Republicans Win Their Largest Majority in the House in 86 Years
  • Democrats Sink to Pre-Depression Levels in State Legislatures
  • Complete 2014 Election Results
  •  

    Note--All numbers referred to on the national scene are from Real Clear Politics.

    It's time to gloat.

    I must be one of the few pundits in the entire country to predict every single United States Senate race correctly yesterday.

    Not only that, for the second election in a row, I nailed all 24 New Hampshire Senate races; I actually didn't believe it would be possible (there were several close calls, both ways), but sure enough, the only "flip" was as predicted in District 12 (three Nashua wards and points west) where Kevin Avard, even after being viciously attacked by the Nashua Telegraph and other papers (I have the clips and will get into them later), ousted Peg Gilmour, even though she had the endorsement of more than 50 Republicans, by about 300 votes. As I wrote Monday, Avard certainly lacks the sophistication that many in the wine and brie media set would like, but he obviously appeals to "the folks" (how I hate Bill O'Reilly's use of that word, but it clearly applies here).

    I went back and forth on the District 7 (Laconia and Franklin) race, but ultimately had Andy Hosmer surviving and he did...barely.

    I meant it when I said that any Republican (Sanborn, Cataldo, Boutin for example) who won in 2012 should certainly hold on in 2014.

    My final prediction on U.S. House races was a gain of 12 seats for Republicans, and at last check, it's either 12 or 13.

    I was about a dozen seats over for Republicans in the New Hampshire House; 250 versus the 235-240 they will eventually control; apparently there no fewer than three ties! Democrats did slightly better than I thought in Manchester, Nashua, and Hillsborough County towns, but elsewhere, the Republican sweep was on. None of the sole Democrats, as I confidently predicted, hung on in places like Hudson, Londonderry, and Merrimack. By election day, most pundits had joined me in the 250 range; one prominent Democrat was even saying--not publicly of course--that the Republican number would reach 270. The rout was kept somewhat in check, it seems, by Democrats calling those who hadn't yet voting and getting them out to the polls late in the day. At least that's what I noticed by the number of young people showing up between 5 and 7 p.m. in Ward 8 Manchester.

    As I told numerous Democratic friends prior to the election, I'm actually glad Republican gains were somewhat muted. Had Republicans reached 270 or more, there's no telling what type of social right wing mischief they would have felt empowered to bring forth.

    Speaking of actually glad, you may find this hard to believe--and I've been referring media to what I would write here--I'm actually glad I lost in Ward 8 (to a fellow Republican and the pizza making Democrat who disgraces himself, his party, and the institution by showing up for only 20 percent of the votes; "I'll vote for him," I heard one person tell one of his fellow Greek sign holders, "but he's got to start showing up more.")

    In past elections, I've been known for going door to door to every home in ware 8.

    Ask me how much I did this year?

    Virtually nothing; I asked for zero money in contributions; I went to zero houses; all I did was that three minute speech on local community access TV. I told friends this past week that while I would obviously serve if elected, a part of me was actually hoping to lose. As late as Thursday, the thought of visiting a thousand or so house came to mind, but only for a second or to. I'm done doing that, I told myself, and I'm really sick of this $100 a year job.

    To all the haters who are delighted in my departure, I can honestly say I join you in your glee. In the past year especially, I tired in sitting in a room with people I can't stand (I avoid using the word "hate" only to be politically correct but it would be appropriate). I'm not going to name names but the number grew when I was appointed to the Criminal Justice Committee. Hey, I hear the left wing extremist Vice Chair is involved in one of the ties.

    But I digress.

    There comes a time in life...several times if one lives long enough...when it's time to do something new yet we tend to cling to the same old habits unless pushed to change. Let's consider yesterday’s result a godsend, a push to move on to better things.

    In 1992, I felt such a need, and moved to Berlin, Germany for a year, one of the best experiences of my life.

    People ask me what I will do now, if I'll run again in two years.

    There are so many things to do. Lately I've been thinking about moving to Montreal to research and write the great American novel, "The Emperor of Quebec" about a native Vermonter who gets into radio, moves to Canada, and becomes such a hit on Montreal talk radio that he successfully leads the separation movement, kind of like the one Rene Levesque failed at, and then is "elected" the first emperor of the new nation of Quebec. It's been kicking around in the back of my head for more than 20 years, but then I've spent 18 of those years tied to this $100 a year job, having to endure slurs from ignorant people from the public to the media to god knows where else. Rest assured, the ignorant will all be characters in "The Emperor of Quebec". I didn't say the guy--I think I'll name him Ernest--moved directly to Montreal. There are lots of adventures in between.

    Ah yes, but if I choose not to do that, maybe I could get a job as a lobbyist or a reporter (who would hire me?) or perhaps a high paying job with Speaker Gene Chandler or a low paying job with the new Senator from Nashua...we'll spiff up your public imagine in no time, Kevin.

    Do I jest?

    Maybe, but there's no joking is saying how grateful I am to the masses who finally threw me out of office yesterday. Maybe it was because my attendance record slipped from 100 to 99 percent the past two years. Ignorant people would apparently prefer a No Show Rep...let's not get bitter now.

    As to running again, one never knows, but my guess is that when I walk out the State House door December 3, I'll never set foot in the building again.

    Why would any media hire me? Perhaps because of my--all modesty aside--of these stellar predictions I began with. My political insight is greater than most, and I was never really cut out to be an elected official. I value the truth too much for that; I don't tolerate fools easily (and the number of fools in politics is virtually infinite); and here's a fact not many people know--I really am an intensely private person. Sure I can deliver a good speech, but I don't enjoy small talk or endless schmoozing or buttering up to people (I've always truly loathed LBJ, for example, our second worst president ever, topped only by the racist bigot Woodrow Wilson).

    As you can tell, I pull no punches in writing here and will no longer have to be encumbered even a tad by political correctness stupidly expected of elected officials.

    Back to those predictions...

    I say I boast that I was one of the few in the entire nation to call all U.S.Senate seats correctly, but of course that's assuming the Louisiana runoff a month from now goes to Bill Cassidy, and it will; after all, Mary Landrieu received only 42 percent of the vote yesterday; Cassidy and Rob Manass accounted for 57 percent, and even arithmetically challenged Democratic spinners would have to admit that 57 is a lot more than 42.

    Are there any Democratic spinmeisters willing to show their faces in public today?

    I'm about to deliver an insult; no line like "ugly as sin" is involved, but it's a bit cruel, but too clever a line to simply let slide into oblivion, so be forewarned those easily offended might want to avert their eyes; I refer specifically to those at HuffPost, the Concord Monitor, and the Valley News.

    Speaking of spinning, did you catch Channel 9 over the weekend. With James Pindell having worn out his welcome (very much like me, it seems), the station was forced to call up new and different spinners. Gambling lobbyist and former unsuccessful Democratic Congressional candidate Jim Demers was spinning so hard and fast that things began flying off the set, everything that is except his hair which was glued as firmly in place as ever.

    Ouch!

    That's the kind of comment you can expect to the new "No More Mister Nice Guy" prospective author of "The Emperor of Quebec".

    Back to predictions.

    It would be wrong to take too much credit; after all, in only two instances did I part way with polling data. As I noted Monday, I thought Libertarian Haugh's vote total would tank in North Carolina, and Thom Tillis would win; he did, 49.0-47.3 (an indication that the Haugh went from five to six percent polling data to only 3.7 percent at the actual polls).

    While I always expected Pat Roberts to come back and win Kansas, I admit I never thought the margin would be in double digits (53.3-42.5). Apparently Greg Orman's referring to Roberts driving around in a clown car (the legendary Kansan Bob Dole was in the car) cost him dearly at the end. There we go...into political correctness again.

    I also correctly reported that Democratic Darling Michelle Nunn had peaked to soon in Georgia; she by eight points and couldn't even get in a positon to force a runoff, the last desperate hope of Democratic spinners everywhere.  And there wasn't even a "clown car" comment to blame for her lopsided defeat.

    Oh yes, I also got called all five New Hampshire Executive Council races correctly, and here’s a personal message to lobbyist Dick Boulay, I haven’t forgotten that you bet me a steak on Joe Kenney NOT winning in district.  The bad news, Dick, is that Kenney did indeed win.  The good news is that I’m trying to be more faithful to my concern for animals needlessly tortured and slaughtered for our culinary pleasure.  While I lapse too often, right now it’s—no steak for me. 

    I am, however looking for a job.  Just a thought, Dick, just a thought.

    I'll review the elections in another post later. The most amazing thing is how all the pollsters, even when they called the races correctly, understated the Republican margin by six to 12 points in most cases. Conspiracy or simple incompetence? When faced with those options, I usually give the guilty the benefit of the doubt and chalk it up to simply incompetence. Usually but not with the MIA Pindell. He forfeited the benefit of the doubt long ago, and all indications are that he was maliciously attempting (maybe even conspiring) to get Scott Brown and to make himself the story once again.

    But that will require another lengthy posting.

    It looks like while my "work" as a State Rep may be over, there's plenty left to blog about here. In fact, I may well find the time to delve into something I've always wanted to but always placed low on the writing priority scale, serving as a media watchdog.

    Petersborough, Entfield, and Queen Avenue, indeed Stephanie, indeed. Can't Channel 9 spend a few bucks teaching their new on air hires how to pronounce New Hampshire place names?  And perhaps a few more bucks getting updated election results on the scroll…there’s no excuse for such incompetence really, not from a station that just took in millions of dollars in political ads.

    I got a million of them (yes, that's hyperbole for those who like nothing better than to accuse me of lying), and it's time to let them all hang out, if not here, then certainly in chapters of "The Emperor of Quebec".

    Monday
    Nov032014

    Final Predictions For The 2014 Election--Commentary

    Now that I've related the most recent relevant polling data and posted my predictions in simple numerical form, a few notes of explanation are in order here.

    First, as always, I base my predictions not on what I hope will happen, but what I think will happen.  I've become quite expert at separating the two.  In fact, as I look back at the Republican primary, I voted for all five losing candidates at the top of the ticket.  Without naming names (I'm no fan of even the threat of "boots on the ground" or homophobic promises to fight for an anti-gay marriage constitutional amendment, Frank),  I expect to pick three losers at the top of the ticket tomorrow.

     
    U.S. Senate--Scott Brown seems to be gaining ground.  I'd like nothing better than to turn the Missouri native out of office.  Yes that would be the governor who sat back as 140 of 147 Democrats voted for an income tax, the governor who then tried to foist a 2.5 percent sales tax and 4.5 percent capital gains tax on the unsuspecting people of New Hampshire.  Yes, that would be the senator who did in fact vote with Barack Obama 99 percent of the time, but has given every indication she would support boots on the ground...if Democrats asked her to.  

    Jeanne Shaheen has never put New Hampshire first; she has always been overly concerned about her own career with the kicker that she's always been slavishly devoted to the tax and spend party.  Still, I expect to be sad; I expect her to squeak by and spend six more years helping to destroy this great country.

    N.H. Governor--Everybody should know by now that I was a big fan of Andrew Hemingway for Governor and for the longest time, I fully intended to write his name in tomorrow, even though he's fully endorsing Havenstein.  I will vote for Uncle Walt due in large part because he seems more willing than Maggie to cast off the Reefer Madness mentality.  However, even with Obama at minus 14 in New Hampshire, Hassan should hang on.  Usually anger at a sitting president is taken out at the senate and/or congressional level, so I expect Hassan will survive.  Frankly, I'm shocked that Uncle Walt has come as close as the polls seem to indicate (down only three in the RCP average).

    First Congressional District--I never believed any of the polls showing Shea Porter ahead.  Even though Guinta is not my cup of tea (I'll never forget his 2010 homophobic flyer; and I suspect he'd go right along with John McCain's triumvirate of stooges in the call for "troops on the ground"); even though voters don't seem to like him all that much (the conservative Union Leader actually endorsed a pro choice openly gay candidate in the primary); even though he has had ethical problems, this is not the year for a Republican, any Republican, to lose in the first c.d.  I trust he'll manage to lose the 2016 re-re-re-rematch with CSP.

    Second Congressional District--Some ignorant media types, maliciously ignorant at that (look to Concord and Lebanon) actually think I made those comments about appearance because I favor Garcia.  They are ignorant indeed.  As I reported after the hand shake episode in the primary, I could never vote for Garcia, for the same two reasons I dislike Guinta--her willingness to go with "troops on the ground" and I was personally offended by the homophobic House speech, the one she apparently stole, against gay marriage on the House floor two years ago.  Garcia has been perfectly pictured (notice I don't use the word villified) as the extreme right winger she is on social issues, far too right wing for this c.d. even in this very favorable Republican year.

    U.S. House--For most of the year, I've had Republicans taking eight seats.  I upped that number to 12 this past weekend, based on some individual races and an increasing move toward Republicans nationally.  For example, The GOP could pick up a seat in Maine; maybe even Hawaii; and this could be the first time this century Massachusetts elects a Republican Congressman, the openly gay Richard Tisei.

    U.S. Senate--Earlier in the week, I explained in detail my increase from seven to nine for GOP pick-ups.  If anything, the case is even stronger now.  I'm going with the polls in the first eight--West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana, and now Arkansas, Georgia, Alaska and even Iowa and Colorado.

    I defy the polls only in North Carolina where Thom Tillis trails by less than a point but should benefit when the vote for the Libertarian Pizza Man collapses (I don't expecct he'll get the six percent polls show; most of those votes should go to Tillis).  

    Michelle Nunn, the Democratic darling (am I allowed to say that? I guess so; after all Chris Matthews calls Ted Cruz "the Joe McCarthy of today" and no one complains) peaked two weeks ago in Georgia.  Democrats drooled all over themselves hoping she would spring an upset, but now if the undecided vote simply splits 50/50, Perdue will hit the 50 percent mark tomorrow, thus avoiding a Jan. 6, 2015 runoff.  

    McConnell wins going away in Kentucky; Pryor loses big in Arkansas; I don't for a minute think that the "ballots in igloos" campaign or the late voting crabbers will save Begich in Alsaksa; and the one think I know about Kansas is that a Democrat will not win--and even if Orman beats Kansas (I don't think he will), he says he will caucus with whichever party has a majority.   That clearly will be Republicans.

    NH House--Early in the year, I had Republicans taking a 212-188 lead, but every time I've looked at it, I've upped the number.  Of course, in the inteirm Democrats did such silly things as try to pass a tax on paint.  My last analysis of 250-150, a 69 sert gain, seems to have become the media standard, not that any of the folks from Concord to Lebanon would ever give me credit....nor do I want it.

    NH Senate--I've waffled all year from no gains at all to a Repjblican gain of two seats.  I'm settling on one.  I had the GOP favored to pick up the District 7 (Laconia) seat, but after Republican Senate Majority Leader Jeb Bradley said good thibgs about Andrew Hosmer on Close-Up yesterday (the business community has apparently endorsed Hosmer), how can I pick against him? Way to go, Jeb!!  Although media and Democrats have rallied behind Peg Gilmour in District 12 (Nashua and points west), I'm still going with Avard--the elite may love to hate him, but I think he'll play well with the "folks" especially in this district, this year.

    Executive Council--Dave Wheeler wins the Nashua area seat easily.  Pappas holds off Burns in Manchester.

     

    Monday
    Nov032014

    WMUR Poll Contradicts Itself...Pindell Embarrasses WMUR

     

    "Never mind."

    WMUR/UNH pollsters seem to be channeling their inner Gilda Radner these days.  You remember her.  She's the Saturday Night Live player who developed the character Rosanna Danna who made famous the line, ""Never mind."  

    That's what WMUR/UNH pollsters seem to be saying these days.  If you don't trust our results, "Never mind. Just wait a day or two and we'' have totally different results."

    Never have polling results from the same outfit been so all over the map, so much so that they define themselves as outliers.

    For example, just five days ago, the WMUR/UNH pollsters had Jeanne Shaheen up 8 points on Scott Brown and Maggie Hassan up 15 on Walt Havenstein.

    "Never mind."

    On the WMUR News at 11 p.m. last night, pollster Andy Smith had Shaheen's lead down to 2 points (47-45) and Hassan's lead down to 4 points; today, Hassan's lead is all the way down to 1 point (50-49).

    But "Never mind."

    The WMUR/UNH pollsters released two more sets of numbers today.  I know, I know, leaners are built into some polls and not others, but this is tough to explain unless a pollster is trying to hedge his or her bets and cover all the bases.  Bloomberg TV News tonight at 8 p.m. reported the WMUR/UNH poll with a 3 point lead for Shaheen (46-43) at the same time Real Clear Politics reported the margin in the same poll as 1 point (49-48),  If we are to believe the RCP data, that 1 point margin is the final number.

    Is your head spinning yet trying to follow this?  It's as if the WMUR pollsters, realizing they had oversampled Democrats for last week's poll, decided to do some fancy footwork and oversample Republicans this week.  I'm no pollster, but I'm convinced that's not the way reliable polling is supposed to work.

    The shift in the race for the second Congressional district is even more dramatic.  Just five days ago, WMUR/UNH pollsters had Marilinda Garcia down 23 points (53-30) after they had her up 4 points (37-41) just three weeks ago.  Last night, Smith reported the lead down to 11 points on WMUR and today we see on the RCP score sheet that the WMUR poll has the lead all the way down to 7 points (53-46). That's a 27 point swing and then and a swing of 16 points the other way; a 43 point swing in all!!
     
    What is it--a Kuster lead of 23, 11, 7, or is Garcia up 4?  As a German friend of mine used to say in broken English, "Nobody knows it."

    Nobody would know it by following the ever-moving WMUR/UNH poll numbers.  Smith actually tried to explain the dramatic shift on Close-Up yesterday by claiming his respondents thought Garcia hd called Kuster "ugly as sin".  Really Andy, I can tell you who said that, and it wasn't Marilinda Garcia, and I can't believe 27 percent of people in your survey would believe it was Garcia...even if only for a few days!

    In the second c.d., the swring has been less dramatic, from Guinta down 4 (40-44) to even last night to up one today (50-49)..

    Simple volatility cannot explain such shifts as the WMUR pollsters would have us believe occurred in the gubernatorial and second c.d. races.  Better to throw darts at a wall than believe these numbers.  

    WMUR Pollster Smith and his acolytes must have swallowed some bad numbers just as surely as WMUR reporter James Pindell swallowed a bad geography book prior to last Thursday night's debate.  Ouch!

    Search Results

    1. WMUR's James Pindell Apologizes To Scott Brown - YouTube

      www.youtube.com/watch?v=lsrjHxeVjZA
      4 days ago - Uploaded by Greg Summers
      This video is unavailable. You need Adobe Flash Player to watch this video. Download it ... WMUR's James ...

    Pindell MIA?

    By the way, where is Pindell any way?  Word around the State House for the past two months has been that WMUR was jettisoning this reporter (who as far as I can tell has never once voted in New Hampshire), not by firing him but by simply not renewing his contract when it expires next year.

    However, after embarrassing both himself and his station during last week's Shaheen/Brown debate and after he was forced to apologize during the 11 p.m. news, I have seen neither hide nor hair of this reporter who does not appear to ever have voted in New Hampshire. Pindell was absent from Close-Up yesterday, seemingly replaced by Union Leader reporter Dan Tuohy who sat next to him during the debate.  Pindell was abset from the station's hour-long election preview Monday (7-8 p.m.), seemingly replaced by Josh Rogers of New Hampshire Public Radio.

    It wasn't just that Pindell got the geography of Sullivan County wrong in an obvious "gotcha" attempt at Scott Brown.  It was the snarky, smarmy way in which he did it (notice his tone of voice in the video).  He reminded me of the student raising his hand trying to prove he's the smartest kid in the class, the one who tries to embarrass the teacher and ends up embarrassing himself.  

    But then Pindell has a long history of making himself the story rather than reporting the story.  Note that after grading the performances of the two candidates involved in the first three debates last week, he was relieved of that "duty" Thursday.  I've never felt a reporter, covering a story, should be grading performances, kind of like a judge, juror, and executioner.

    Will Pindell be on the set for tomorrow night's election coverage or has his departure been hastened along by his boorish, childish, totally unprofessional antics during the debate?

    Inquiring minds want to know.
     
    Stay turned because I've been gathering stories on Pindell for months now, and have about 2000 words to report after the election, beginning with how he slurred outgoing Associated Press reporter Norma Love last spirng and including how 10 days ago he misinformed Julia Mason (POTUS 127, the Press Pool) about the state of Scott Brown's finances and 15 second ads (see prior post).

    Ah, but I digress.  This began as a last second look at WMUR/UNH polling. Let's hold the Pindell expose for another day.  Suffice it to say that the station has hardly tarnished its reputation this campaign cycle, hardly the type of thing you'd expect from an outfit which has made millions (how many?) of dollars off campaign advertising.  

    I just can't wait till tomorrow night to see if the station will leave those unchanged State Senate results scrolling across the screen for hours as it did in the primary.  For a station enriched by the campaign, is it too much to ask for it to hire someone to get the numbers right?

    But again, I digress. 

    Back To WMUR/UNH Polling

    Let's look at internals of the WMUR poll.  Despite what most pundits agree will be a Republican advantage in voter, the WMUR/UNH model has Democrats with a 29-28 percent advantage with 43 percent undedied voters.
    That compares to Ameirican Research Group with uses a model of 35.8% Republicans, 30.20% Democrats, and 34.0% undeclared (ARG has the Senate race at 49-49); and Vox Populi, admittedly a Republican polling outfit, which uses a sample of 34% Republicans, 27% Democrats, and 38% undeclared (that poll has Brown up four points, 49-45 and Haventstin up three points, 47-44). 

    The New England College poll has Brown up less than a point, 48.7-48.2, Hassan up seven (51-44) and Guinta up nine (52-43).  

    Both WMUR and ARG inernals are in accord that Shaheen is doing better among Democrats than Brown is among Republicans, and Shaheen has a slight lead among undeclared voters. 

    Finally, let's glean something useful out of this polling mess.

    The final (?) WMUR poll has Shaheen up 91-3 among Democrats, Brown up 82-7 among Republicans and Shaheen up 37-41 among undeclared voters. ARG has Shaheen up 91-4 among Democrats, Brown up 87-11 among Republicans, and Shaheen up 36-40 among undeclared voters.  Brown's path to victory, clearly, is to tick up his support among Republicans and hope late deciding undeclared voters break for him.

     

     

    Monday
    Nov032014

    Final Predictions For The 2014 Election--Numbers Only

    New Hampshire Senate

    Jeanne Shaheen (D)--51.5%

    Scott Brown (R)--48.5%

     

     New Hampshire Governor

    Maggie Hassan (D)--53%

    Walt Havenstein (R)--47% 

     

    New Hampshire First Congressional District

    Frank Guinta (R)--53%

    Carol Shea Porter (D)--47%

     

    New Hampshire Second Congressional District

    Annie Kuster (D)--54%

    Marilinda Garcia (R)--46%

     

    United States House

    2012 Election--Republicans 234, Democrats 201

    Final Prediction  +12R--246R-189D

     

     

    United States Senate--FLIP

    2012 Election--Democrats (with two independents) 55, Republicans 45

    Final Prediction  +9R--54R-46D

     

     

    New Hampshire House--FLIP

    2012 Election--Democrats 219, Republicans 181

    Final Prediction  +69R--250R-150D

     

     

    New Hampshire Senate

    2012 Election--13 Republicans, 11 Democrats

    Final Prediction  +1R--14R-10D

     

     

    New Hampshire Executive Council--FLIP

    2012 Election--3 Democrats, 2 Republicans

    Final Prediction--3R, 2D

     

     

     

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