It'll be interesting to see what kind of bounce Scott Brown gets in the RCP average following today's likely primary win.
|Poll||Date||Sample||MoE||Shaheen (D)||Brown (R)||Spread|
|RCP Average||7/7 - 9/2||--||--||47.7||42.3||Shaheen +5.4|
|CBS News/NYT/YouGov||8/18 - 9/2||1159 LV||4.0||47||41||Shaheen +6|
|WMUR/UNH||8/7 - 8/17||609 LV||4.0||46||44||Shaheen +2|
|NBC News/Marist||7/7 - 7/13||1342 RV||2.7||50||42||Shaheen +8|
Normally I don’t do primary predictions, but I’m tempted.
Ah, what the heck? No guts, no glory. It’ll be one less hour of holding signs at the polls.
Keep in mind that I base predictions not on what I hope will happen, but what I think will happen. I’ve already voted and I suspect that, at least at the top of the ticket, I didn’t opt for many winners.
U.S. Senate--Brown Will Hit 50%--As noted a few weeks ago, I voted for Jim Rubens for United States Senate, but not only do I think Scott Brown will win, I also think Bob Smith will finish second. A few months ago, I would have predicted Scott Brown would receive twice as many votes as all the other candidates combined, but pundits today seem to be questioning whether he’ll hit the 50 percent mark.
I’ll go with 55 percent for Brown, 30 percent for Smith, 15 percent for Rubens.
1st C.D.—Homophobia Rules--For Congress, the Union Leader editorial writers and I, for different reasons to be sure, voted for Dan Innis, but I think Frank Guinta will win easily, with 60 percent or more of the vote. Guinta will also most likely beat Carol Shea Porter come November and then lose to her in 2016. Until the Republican Party abandons its infatuation with homophobia, no wins will be long lasting. Guinta, for example, went out of his way four years ago to attack marriage equality. I didn’t see such an over to top piece this year, but he remains out of touch with the vast majority of Americans in believing marriage should be only between one man and one woman.
In preparation for writing this, I actually checked all recent polls on the pollingreport.com web site. Sur enough, here they are, an indication of just how out of touch Guinta and Republicans are (to their eternal shame)
--August 7—Marist—54-38 % support for gay marriage.
--August 4—CBS—53-40 % support for gay marriage.
June 1—CBS—56-38 % support for gay marriage (including 67-28D, 58-37I, and only 37-57 R).
May 11—Gallup—55-42 % support for gay marriage.
March 10—Bloomberg—55-36 % support for gay marriage.
February 26—Pew—54-39 % support for gay marriage.
In other words, in poll after poll, it’s not even close any more. If you think I'm cherry picking polls, check it out yourself. (Would I lie?).
I just finished reading the Redeeming The Dream, the excellent new book by conservative Republican Ted Olson and liberal Democrat David Boies, the opponents in the historic Bush v. Gore case in 2000 but united for the appeal of the California Prop 8 gay marriage case which went all the way to the Supreme Court. I challenge anyone to read that book and see if you still cling to the Neanderthal argument that gay people should be denied the right to marry. Apparently, Frank Guinta does; he’s shown absolutely no progress with this issue on which millions of thoughtful Americans have changed. Guinta didn’t get my vote (I voted for the gay guy, not because he’s gay, but because he’s the better candidate), but sadly Guinta will win easily. Some day, the GOP will leave its homophobia behind, but not today; not this year.
2nd C.D.—More Homophobia—This is not my congressional district and her homophobia and war mongering would prevent me from voting for Marilinda Garcia, but her commercials for and by her (including Laughably Liberal Lambert) have been among the best to air this year. Never underestimate the value of homophobia, sadly, in a GOP primary. Unless Lambert gets an especially strong turnout in Nashua, Garcia should win easily, but then Annie Kuster and Democrats will destroy her come November.
A Surprise For Governor?—Most pundits say Walt Havenstein should win—one media wag (I believe it was in the Monitor) even sited polls which I haven’t seen, but allow me this one indigence. Havenstein has run such a terrible campaign that he deserves to win, and I’m going out on a limb and saying he will lose. Unlike in the Senate race, the establishment guy won’t benefit from a split field. Look for Hemingway to coalesce the anti-establishment vote and pull in enough undeclared voters to send Walt back home to Maryland.
No State Senate Surprises—I agree with James Pindel who opined on Channel 9 Sunday that none of the tea party insurgents will oust incumbent Republican State Senators.
This especially includes Jane Cormier who will lose big to David Boutin in District 16 (Manchester Wards 1, 2,, 12, Hooksett, Bow and northern towns). From the Union Leader to the Koch Brothers/Greg Moore crowd, Boutin has a lot of high powered enemies. Fortunately for him, he has even more friends; they're known as voters.
In District 18 (Manchester Wards 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and Litchfield), look for Ward 6 School Board member Robyn Dunphy to handily turn back Litchfield Rep George Lambert who is unique in the political world. I happen to like many politicians (mostly Democrats) with whom I disagree on issues, but Lambert is about the only person I’ve ever agreed with on most issues but still manage to despise. Only he could get away with heckling an homage to the late Warren Rudman on the House floor and then be allowed to stand at the well while voting was in progress. To know George Lambert is to never vote for him, and I suspect he’s well enough known now to be gone forever. Besides, I've received two very effective mailings from Dunphy and nary a word from Lambert.
District 19 (Derry, Windham, Hampstead) is a bit harder to call. I had Frank Sapareto winning easily with Regina Birdsell and Jim Foley splitting the anti-Frank vote. Now that Foley has stopped campaigning, the situation is muddied, but you know what? His name remains on the ballot; about 80 percent of those voting won’t know he’s pulled out, so I still think he’ll take enough votes to give Sapareto the win, albeit by a narrow margin. Truth in blogging—if I lived in the district, I’d be voting for Sapareto; his work on the decriminalization/legalization bill was stellar, and we need a senator like him.
District 11 (Merrimack, Milford) should go to Gary Daniels since he's the only one of four candidates from Milford. It seems reasonable to expect the other three will split the Merrimack vote, and besides, after watching Andy Peterson and then Peter Bragdon claim this seat, Daniels is due. Some see former Merrimack Rep Maureen Mooney doing well; I don't.
District 24 (Hampton, Sencoast). Tea party types would like nothing more than to see Nancy Stiles lose to Steve Kenda; it's not going to happen or even come close to happening.
I could go on, but then I’d simply manage to alienate more people whom I might need as collegiate colleagues later, so I’ll stop. I honestly have no feel for the Kevin Avard/Michael McCarthy GOP primary for the right to beat Peggy Gilmour in District 12 (Nashua Wards 1,2, 5, Hollis, Brookline, Rindge, New Ipswich). I’m told the Americans for Prosperity/Koch/Greg Moore crowd have been attacking McCarthy, but he would most certainly be the stronger candidate come November. Gilmour better hope Avard wins today.