The WMUR Granite State poll, from Andy Smith at UNH, showing Missouri-native Jeanne Shaheen now in a dead heat with Scott Brown exploded like a tidal wave across the political landscape today.
However, there may be far worse news for Democrats than the 46-44 lead for Shaheen over Brown.
According to the UNH numbers, President Barack Obama is now 22 points (37-59) under water in New Hampshire. That's more than twice as much as nationwide; Obama's actually experienced a slight blip up and now is "only" down ten points in the RCP average.
If this 22 point deficit for Obama in New Hamsphire is anywhere near correct (and I've always trusted the UNH numbers), then Democrats up and down the ticket will be in even worse trouble than I had in my projection a couple weeks ago; I had the NH House going 239-161 Republican and the Senate going 15-9 Republican.
As I've always said, "Top of the ticket matters", and a minus 22 at the top could sink all Democratic ships (except of course in the traditional liberal bastions such as Keene, Concord, Portsmouth, Durham, Lebanon/Hanover, and Berlin).
I was about to predict that Republicans would gain one Executive Council seat (David Wheeler in the Nashua area), but unless Obama's numbers pick up, Democrat Chris Pappas could also be in trouble in Manchester (unless of course Republicans do something stupid like nominating the incompetent Bobby Burns again--I agree with the Union Leader on this one--vote for Adams on Sept. 9).
Even incumbent Manchester Democratic Senators, Lou D'Allesandro in District 16 and Donna Soucy in District 18, might not be safe.
I'm not ready to predict that, but these UNH numbers couldn't be worse for Democrats.
Compounding the pain will be poor Democratic turnout, set in motion by what should be a pathetic primary turnout.
A Washington Post story, run by Real Clear Politics today, tells the sad story for Democrats. In the mid-summer poll which showed Shaheen ahead of Brown by 12 points, more Democrats than Republicans were included in the survey (37R-42D). That's not the way it was for the most recent poll (40R-39D) it's not the way it was in 2012 actual voting (30R-27D); and it certainly won't be the way it is come this November.
Results, of course, are closely tied to just who is surveyed.
As my black jack dealing cousin Eddie used to say, "Read 'em and weep."
Democrats will certainly want to weep when they read this turnout chart released today.
Here's a link to the story; trust me, the charts alone make this worth a click.
I checked the Huffington Post Pollster site, and some on the left are discounting the UNH poll, noting that we need confirmation before taking it as gospel. Harry Enten at fivethirtyeight.com joins that chorus (another link), and indeed it's always good to have more than one poll. However, wanna bet that the next few polls are pretty much in line with the UNH numbers?