Note--All numbers referred to on the national scene are from Real Clear Politics.
It's time to gloat.
I must be one of the few pundits in the entire country to predict every single United States Senate race correctly yesterday.
Not only that, for the second election in a row, I nailed all 24 New Hampshire Senate races; I actually didn't believe it would be possible (there were several close calls, both ways), but sure enough, the only "flip" was as predicted in District 12 (three Nashua wards and points west) where Kevin Avard, even after being viciously attacked by the Nashua Telegraph and other papers (I have the clips and will get into them later), ousted Peg Gilmour, even though she had the endorsement of more than 50 Republicans, by about 300 votes. As I wrote Monday, Avard certainly lacks the sophistication that many in the wine and brie media set would like, but he obviously appeals to "the folks" (how I hate Bill O'Reilly's use of that word, but it clearly applies here).
I went back and forth on the District 7 (Laconia and Franklin) race, but ultimately had Andy Hosmer surviving and he did...barely.
I meant it when I said that any Republican (Sanborn, Cataldo, Boutin for example) who won in 2012 should certainly hold on in 2014.
My final prediction on U.S. House races was a gain of 12 seats for Republicans, and at last check, it's either 12 or 13.
I was about a dozen seats over for Republicans in the New Hampshire House; 250 versus the 235-240 they will eventually control; apparently there no fewer than three ties! Democrats did slightly better than I thought in Manchester, Nashua, and Hillsborough County towns, but elsewhere, the Republican sweep was on. None of the sole Democrats, as I confidently predicted, hung on in places like Hudson, Londonderry, and Merrimack. By election day, most pundits had joined me in the 250 range; one prominent Democrat was even saying--not publicly of course--that the Republican number would reach 270. The rout was kept somewhat in check, it seems, by Democrats calling those who hadn't yet voting and getting them out to the polls late in the day. At least that's what I noticed by the number of young people showing up between 5 and 7 p.m. in Ward 8 Manchester.
As I told numerous Democratic friends prior to the election, I'm actually glad Republican gains were somewhat muted. Had Republicans reached 270 or more, there's no telling what type of social right wing mischief they would have felt empowered to bring forth.
Speaking of actually glad, you may find this hard to believe--and I've been referring media to what I would write here--I'm actually glad I lost in Ward 8 (to a fellow Republican and the pizza making Democrat who disgraces himself, his party, and the institution by showing up for only 20 percent of the votes; "I'll vote for him," I heard one person tell one of his fellow Greek sign holders, "but he's got to start showing up more.")
In past elections, I've been known for going door to door to every home in ware 8.
Ask me how much I did this year?
Virtually nothing; I asked for zero money in contributions; I went to zero houses; all I did was that three minute speech on local community access TV. I told friends this past week that while I would obviously serve if elected, a part of me was actually hoping to lose. As late as Thursday, the thought of visiting a thousand or so house came to mind, but only for a second or to. I'm done doing that, I told myself, and I'm really sick of this $100 a year job.
To all the haters who are delighted in my departure, I can honestly say I join you in your glee. In the past year especially, I tired in sitting in a room with people I can't stand (I avoid using the word "hate" only to be politically correct but it would be appropriate). I'm not going to name names but the number grew when I was appointed to the Criminal Justice Committee. Hey, I hear the left wing extremist Vice Chair is involved in one of the ties.
But I digress.
There comes a time in life...several times if one lives long enough...when it's time to do something new yet we tend to cling to the same old habits unless pushed to change. Let's consider yesterday’s result a godsend, a push to move on to better things.
In 1992, I felt such a need, and moved to Berlin, Germany for a year, one of the best experiences of my life.
People ask me what I will do now, if I'll run again in two years.
There are so many things to do. Lately I've been thinking about moving to Montreal to research and write the great American novel, "The Emperor of Quebec" about a native Vermonter who gets into radio, moves to Canada, and becomes such a hit on Montreal talk radio that he successfully leads the separation movement, kind of like the one Rene Levesque failed at, and then is "elected" the first emperor of the new nation of Quebec. It's been kicking around in the back of my head for more than 20 years, but then I've spent 18 of those years tied to this $100 a year job, having to endure slurs from ignorant people from the public to the media to god knows where else. Rest assured, the ignorant will all be characters in "The Emperor of Quebec". I didn't say the guy--I think I'll name him Ernest--moved directly to Montreal. There are lots of adventures in between.
Ah yes, but if I choose not to do that, maybe I could get a job as a lobbyist or a reporter (who would hire me?) or perhaps a high paying job with Speaker Gene Chandler or a low paying job with the new Senator from Nashua...we'll spiff up your public imagine in no time, Kevin.
Do I jest?
Maybe, but there's no joking is saying how grateful I am to the masses who finally threw me out of office yesterday. Maybe it was because my attendance record slipped from 100 to 99 percent the past two years. Ignorant people would apparently prefer a No Show Rep...let's not get bitter now.
As to running again, one never knows, but my guess is that when I walk out the State House door December 3, I'll never set foot in the building again.
Why would any media hire me? Perhaps because of my--all modesty aside--of these stellar predictions I began with. My political insight is greater than most, and I was never really cut out to be an elected official. I value the truth too much for that; I don't tolerate fools easily (and the number of fools in politics is virtually infinite); and here's a fact not many people know--I really am an intensely private person. Sure I can deliver a good speech, but I don't enjoy small talk or endless schmoozing or buttering up to people (I've always truly loathed LBJ, for example, our second worst president ever, topped only by the racist bigot Woodrow Wilson).
As you can tell, I pull no punches in writing here and will no longer have to be encumbered even a tad by political correctness stupidly expected of elected officials.
Back to those predictions...
I say I boast that I was one of the few in the entire nation to call all U.S.Senate seats correctly, but of course that's assuming the Louisiana runoff a month from now goes to Bill Cassidy, and it will; after all, Mary Landrieu received only 42 percent of the vote yesterday; Cassidy and Rob Manass accounted for 57 percent, and even arithmetically challenged Democratic spinners would have to admit that 57 is a lot more than 42.
Are there any Democratic spinmeisters willing to show their faces in public today?
I'm about to deliver an insult; no line like "ugly as sin" is involved, but it's a bit cruel, but too clever a line to simply let slide into oblivion, so be forewarned those easily offended might want to avert their eyes; I refer specifically to those at HuffPost, the Concord Monitor, and the Valley News.
Speaking of spinning, did you catch Channel 9 over the weekend. With James Pindell having worn out his welcome (very much like me, it seems), the station was forced to call up new and different spinners. Gambling lobbyist and former unsuccessful Democratic Congressional candidate Jim Demers was spinning so hard and fast that things began flying off the set, everything that is except his hair which was glued as firmly in place as ever.
That's the kind of comment you can expect to the new "No More Mister Nice Guy" prospective author of "The Emperor of Quebec".
Back to predictions.
It would be wrong to take too much credit; after all, in only two instances did I part way with polling data. As I noted Monday, I thought Libertarian Haugh's vote total would tank in North Carolina, and Thom Tillis would win; he did, 49.0-47.3 (an indication that the Haugh went from five to six percent polling data to only 3.7 percent at the actual polls).
While I always expected Pat Roberts to come back and win Kansas, I admit I never thought the margin would be in double digits (53.3-42.5). Apparently Greg Orman's referring to Roberts driving around in a clown car (the legendary Kansan Bob Dole was in the car) cost him dearly at the end. There we go...into political correctness again.
I also correctly reported that Democratic Darling Michelle Nunn had peaked to soon in Georgia; she by eight points and couldn't even get in a positon to force a runoff, the last desperate hope of Democratic spinners everywhere. And there wasn't even a "clown car" comment to blame for her lopsided defeat.
Oh yes, I also got called all five New Hampshire Executive Council races correctly, and here’s a personal message to lobbyist Dick Boulay, I haven’t forgotten that you bet me a steak on Joe Kenney NOT winning in district. The bad news, Dick, is that Kenney did indeed win. The good news is that I’m trying to be more faithful to my concern for animals needlessly tortured and slaughtered for our culinary pleasure. While I lapse too often, right now it’s—no steak for me.
I am, however looking for a job. Just a thought, Dick, just a thought.
I'll review the elections in another post later. The most amazing thing is how all the pollsters, even when they called the races correctly, understated the Republican margin by six to 12 points in most cases. Conspiracy or simple incompetence? When faced with those options, I usually give the guilty the benefit of the doubt and chalk it up to simply incompetence. Usually but not with the MIA Pindell. He forfeited the benefit of the doubt long ago, and all indications are that he was maliciously attempting (maybe even conspiring) to get Scott Brown and to make himself the story once again.
But that will require another lengthy posting.
It looks like while my "work" as a State Rep may be over, there's plenty left to blog about here. In fact, I may well find the time to delve into something I've always wanted to but always placed low on the writing priority scale, serving as a media watchdog.
Petersborough, Entfield, and Queen Avenue, indeed Stephanie, indeed. Can't Channel 9 spend a few bucks teaching their new on air hires how to pronounce New Hampshire place names? And perhaps a few more bucks getting updated election results on the scroll…there’s no excuse for such incompetence really, not from a station that just took in millions of dollars in political ads.
I got a million of them (yes, that's hyperbole for those who like nothing better than to accuse me of lying), and it's time to let them all hang out, if not here, then certainly in chapters of "The Emperor of Quebec".