Rep Steve Vaillancourt


From Shaws, "Isn't She (He) Ugly?"


Published on: November 6, 2014
Photography by: (c)The NATIONAL ENQUIRER 2014
Edy's Grand was on sale for $1.99 at Shaws and I seem to recall them having an orange pineapple flavor, my favorite all time ice cream, so I decided to pop into Shaws late Friday afternoon.

Alas, there was no orange pineapple; I had to settle for vanilla/orange sherbet, but as I told the guy standing next to me, "So what if it's awful; it's only $1.99."

In fact, it's pretty good, but that's not the story here.
As I got to the checkout line, a problem with the man at the head of the line caused a delay.  

To pass the time, the woman in front of me and behind me began looking at The National Enquirer.

"Ooh, that's Bruce Jenner," I said when I noticed how the 1976 decathlon champ appeared to be looking more and more like a woman every day.  We determined it was the 76 games because one of the women mentioned they were in Montreal.  Ah yes, I told her, the ones which nearly bankrupted Quebec's largest city.
At that point, the woman behind me intoned (referring to Bruce Jenner), "Doesn't he look ugly?"

Without missing a beat and thinking more of Bruce as a woman than a man, at least in that photo, I quickly responsed, "I wouldn't know.  I last time I referred to a woman as ugly, I got in big trouble."

Both women laughed heartily as if they recognized who I was. The problem at the head of the line had cleared up, so I grabbed two dollars, got my vanilla orange sherbet ice cream and was on my way.

Did this really happen or is it simply yet another chapter for my proposed novel "The Emperor of Quebec"?

Of course it happened.  I've said many times before that the only thing preventing me from writing the great American novel is a total lack of imagination.  All I am capable of doing is taking a real life situation and fictionalizing it.

As I was driving home, Edy's in hand, like manna from heaven, the start for a pivotal chapter of the book sprang to mind.  It's to be entitled "Jackie On The Brink" and introduces a major character (I've posted the working draft under a seprate entry).
The chapter falls about four-fifths of the way into "The Emperor of Quebec".  As you can tell, there's lots of ground to cover before we get to Montreal and CJAD.  

Thank the powers that be for two things.  If not for Annie Kuster's "beauty", there'd be no Jackie/Jacqueline character who is turning into a driving force of the book (although he's certainly no emperor; I'll reserve that role for myself), and if not for last Tuesday, I'd have not time to write such drivel.  How's that for being smug, which someone recently accused me of being, and the antithesis of smug at the same time?  Can one really be smug if one is the antithesis of smug?  Perhaps an emperor could be! 
Speaking of dear Annie, the ignoramuses at HuffPost the, incompetent Concord Monitor, and the Valley Snooze can take me to task again should they so choose (ignorance is always an excuse for those who wish to remain ignorant), but trust me, I didn't seek out this graphic.  Someone sent it to me; is it possible to use it in "The Emperor of Quebec" or is some sort of royalty involved?  Apparently doesn't seem to reproduce here.  You'll have to take my word for it; it's an election sytle graphic of Marilinda Garcia picutred next to...are you ready...Jabba the Hut (aks Ms. Kuster).  I didn't do it, but apparently I'm not the only one who can judge beauty when he doesn't see it?  Oh well, at least the HuffPost and Monitor morons can't ask that I resign my seat for daring to speak the truth!  Such options are off the table; I'm liberated from the reach of the PC fascist police.  If I can get the graphic to reproduce, I'll do so, but you know what Jabba looks like as much as I do.




The Race For Speaker--Democratic Rep Picks O'Brien

Advance warning--Don't trust anything you hear about the race for New Hampshire House Speaker the next few weeks, including what you hear here.

However, that shouldn't prevent us from passing along rumors, even if they are third or fourth hand rumors.

I received a doozy of a rumor via email today. A former Republican Representative (I'll protect the name) just told me that Democratic Rep Peter Leishman, of Peterborough, is claiming that former Speaker Bill O'Brien has the votes to defeat former House Speaker Gene Chandler.

This is all very interesting because two other sources have just told me that O’Brien and Leishman are cousins. While I didn't know that, I did know that there's no love lost between the two. When Leishman won a special election in the midst of O'Brien's term as Speaker, Democrats tried to get him appointed to an opening on the Finance Committee, and O'Brien vetoed the idea.

Thus, I can't say if what Leishman says now is true or an attempt at spreading disinformation.

I emailed back to my sources saying that I don't believe for a moment that O'Brien has the votes. In fact, I continue to hear good things about Laurie Sanborn, the third candidate in the field. I'm sticking with the thought that she should draw enough votes on the first ballot to prevent either Chandler or O'Brien from reaching 50 percent.

Someone else emailed me that David Hess, R-Hooksett, is calling new Reps trying to get them to vote for Chandler. That should come as no surprise. Chandler and Hess are part of what has been called the good old boy network. A pro Chandler call from Hess would be enough to convince me to vote for anybody else, but should be known by now...I won't have a say in the matter. It's about the only thing I'll miss about not being around come December 5.

Another Manchester Republican who won't be around for the new session is Emily Sandblade from Ward 11, and she was firmly in the O'Brien fold.

Thus, not only could I not confirm the rumor Leishman is spreading, but the one solid bit of evidence I have is that Chandler should be favored.

All along I've said that Chandler would do better with fewer rather than more Republicans elected to vote. The fact that Republicans seem to have gained 240 seats (rather than the 250 or 260 some had predicted) does not bode well for O'Brien.

But then again maybe Peter Leishman, usually a good source for rumors in the past, may know something I don't know.

No less than 19 recounts have been scheduled by the Secretary of State; they should be posted on his web site, and I believe all but one are in State Rep races.

Democrats will caucus to choose their leader (a foregone conclusion it'll be Steve Shurtleff of Concord--Democrats after all prefer not to have contests) Wednesday morning, Nov. 12, before even a single recount is conducted.

The Republican caucus isn't scheduled until the following Tuesday, Nov. 18.

If only I could take an invisibility pill and sneak into the room. 

Final Warning—If you don’t want one of your comments released to the world, the age-old obligation is to say in advance that it’s off the record.  That’s nothing new.


The Week's Trivia--The Obamacare Dropouts

All week, I had planned to concoct a delectable trivia quiz this week, a 15 item matching contest noting weird things that happened in the election just past.  I'm still collecting weird anecdotes, so I'll postpone that exercise for a week and replace the question with a delicious tidbit I heard on Fox News earlier this week and which now appears in the Washington Examiner (and

Thus, while next week's trivia will be long and fun, this week's question is simple.

When the new United States Senate convenes in January--yes that would be the one led by Mitch McConnell, a 17 point winner in Kentucky Tuesday--how many Democrats who voted for Obamacare will not be sitting as senators? 


Note--Unlike most media, I'm going to include Mary Landrieu, of Louisiana in my tally, for two reasons.  She most certainly will lose in the December runoff and that will get us to a multiple of five.

Want some choices?  Need some choices?

Ok.  Is the number of Democrats who voted for Obamacare and will no longer be with us?


A) 10

B) 15

C) 20

D) 25

E) 30


As I heard it on Fox News earlier, the number was 28, but apparently the number has been revised upward to 29. (If only it could be 30...a Senate sans Shaheen, I for one would be much happier, but one can't have everything in life).

Maybe I should have asked you to name the 29 names, but that would be too much.

Here's the story with names named.

29 senators who voted for Obamacare and won't be part of new Senate

By Philip Klein | November 6, 2014 | 11:07 pm
Topics: Beltway Confidential Congress Obamacare Senate Health Care 2014 Elections Video
Beltway Confidential,Opinion,Congress,Philip Klein,Obamacare,Senate,Health Care,2014 Elections.  On Dec. 24, 2009, the Democratic-controlled Senate passed President Obama’s healthcare law with a filibuster-proof 60-vote majority, triggering a massive backlash that propelled Republicans to control of the House the following year. On the Senate side, going into Tuesday’s elections, 25 senators who voted for Obamacare were already out or not going be part of the new Senate being sworn in on January.  Additionally, some outgoing pro-Obamacare votes were replaced by new Democratic senators.  That having been said, as of this writing, 15 Senators who voted for Obamacare either failed to win reelection or declined to run for reelection and had their seats turned over to Republicans. That number is likely to grow once the results are in from the Senate runoff in Louisiana, which Mary Landrieu is expected to lose.

RELATED: No compromise on individual mandate, Obama says

The following is a breakdown of senators who have voted for Obamacare who will not be part of the next Senate.

Lost and replaced by a Republican:

Sen. Mark Begich, D-Alaska -- lost to Dan Sullivan, R

Sen. Mark Pryor, D-Ark. -- lost to Rep. Tom Cotton, R-Ark.

Sen. Mark Udall, D-Colo. -- lost to Rep. Cory Gardner, R- Colo.

Sen. Kay Hagan, D-N.C. -- lost to Thom Tillis, R

Russ Feingold, D-Wis.

Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark.

Arlen Specter, D-Penn.

Left Senate and replaced by a Republican:

Jay Rockefeller, D-W.V.

Max Baucus, D-Mont.

Tim Johnson, D-S.D.

Tom Harkin, D-Iowa

Ben Nelson, D-Neb.

Byron Dorgan, D-N.D.

Evan Bayh, D-Ind.

Roland Burris, D-Ill.

RELATED: How a Republican Congress would replace Obamacare

Left Senate and replaced by a Democrat:

Jim Webb, D-Va.

Joe Lieberman, I-Conn.

Herb Kohl, D-Wis.

Daniel Akaka, D-Hawaii

Jeff Bingaman, D-N.M.

Chris Dodd, D-Conn.

Paul Kirk, D-Mass. (appointed to replace Ted Kennedy -- seat later held by Republican Scott Brown)

John Kerry, D-Mass.

Ted Kauffman, D-Del.

Kent Conrad, D-N.D.

Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich.

Died in office:

Robert Byrd, D-W.V

Daniel Inouye, D-Hawaii

Frank Lautenberg, D- N.J

Vulnerable pro-Obamacare Democrats still at risk in 2014:

Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La.

CORRECTION: This list was corrected to reflect that Kent Conrad was replaced by a Democrat, not a Republican.

To be sure, it isn’t fair to attribute all of the turnover in the chamber to Obamacare. Many senators voted for Obamacare and lost re-election battles in which they were hit hard for their support for the law, and other Democrats were forced to retire because they had no hope of getting re-elected given their support for the law. But in some cases — such as John Kerry leaving his seat to become secretary of state, or Robert Byrd passing away — Obamacare clearly had nothing to do with it.


Final Actual Numbers Vs. Predictions

Updated and corrected Friday, November 17


While we're still awaiting a few results for the New Hampshire House (including three ties and other races going to recounts) and a few U.S. House numbers, enough data is in to update the predictions I posted Monday.  I have copied that posting exactly as it was and am now simply adding the final results in bold underlining next to it.  In the top four predictions, every winner was correct, so we're only concerned with final percentages here.  I'm hearing there might be a recount requested in the NH District 7 Senate race, won narrowly (9543-9411)by Democrat Andrew Hosmer over Kathleen Lauer-Rago (as predicted here, including the narrow margin).  No commentary is required.


New Hampshire U.S. Senate

Jeanne Shaheen (D)--51.5%----51.6%

 Scott Brown (R)--48.5%-----48.4%


 New Hampshire Governor

Maggie Hassan (D)--53%----52.6%

Walt Havenstein (R)--47%----47.4%


New Hampshire First Congressional District

Frank Guinta (R)--53%---51.8%

Carol Shea Porter (D)--47%---48.2%


New Hampshire Second Congressional District

Annie Kuster (D)--54%---55%

Marilinda Garcia (R)--46%---45%


United States House

2012 Election--Republicans 234, Democrats 201

Final Prediction +12R--246R-189D

Actual +15R (most likley)--249R-186D


United States Senate--FLIP

2012 Election--Democrats (with two independents) 55, Republicans 45

Final Prediction +9R--54R-46D

 Actual +9R--54R-46D (assuming LA goes R in December as expected)


New Hampshire House--FLIP

2012 Election--Democrats 219, Republicans 181

Final Prediction +69R--250R-150D

Actual +58R--239R-160D, 1 Other  (In recounts, Democrats won two of three ties) 


New Hampshire Senate

2012 Election--13 Republicans, 11 Democrats

Final Prediction +1R--14R-10D

Actual +1R--14R-10D 


New Hampshire Executive Council--FLIP

2012 Election--3 Democrats, 2 Republicans

Final Prediction +1R--3R, 2D

Actual--+1R--3R, 2D


A Better Prognosticator Than A Candidate

  • Battle for the Senate: How the Republicans Pulled Off Huge Win
  • The GOP Breaks Dems' Blue Wall
  • Republicans Win Their Largest Majority in the House in 86 Years
  • Democrats Sink to Pre-Depression Levels in State Legislatures
  • Complete 2014 Election Results

    Note--All numbers referred to on the national scene are from Real Clear Politics.

    It's time to gloat.

    I must be one of the few pundits in the entire country to predict every single United States Senate race correctly yesterday.

    Not only that, for the second election in a row, I nailed all 24 New Hampshire Senate races; I actually didn't believe it would be possible (there were several close calls, both ways), but sure enough, the only "flip" was as predicted in District 12 (three Nashua wards and points west) where Kevin Avard, even after being viciously attacked by the Nashua Telegraph and other papers (I have the clips and will get into them later), ousted Peg Gilmour, even though she had the endorsement of more than 50 Republicans, by about 300 votes. As I wrote Monday, Avard certainly lacks the sophistication that many in the wine and brie media set would like, but he obviously appeals to "the folks" (how I hate Bill O'Reilly's use of that word, but it clearly applies here).

    I went back and forth on the District 7 (Laconia and Franklin) race, but ultimately had Andy Hosmer surviving and he did...barely.

    I meant it when I said that any Republican (Sanborn, Cataldo, Boutin for example) who won in 2012 should certainly hold on in 2014.

    My final prediction on U.S. House races was a gain of 12 seats for Republicans, and at last check, it's either 12 or 13.

    I was about a dozen seats over for Republicans in the New Hampshire House; 250 versus the 235-240 they will eventually control; apparently there no fewer than three ties! Democrats did slightly better than I thought in Manchester, Nashua, and Hillsborough County towns, but elsewhere, the Republican sweep was on. None of the sole Democrats, as I confidently predicted, hung on in places like Hudson, Londonderry, and Merrimack. By election day, most pundits had joined me in the 250 range; one prominent Democrat was even saying--not publicly of course--that the Republican number would reach 270. The rout was kept somewhat in check, it seems, by Democrats calling those who hadn't yet voting and getting them out to the polls late in the day. At least that's what I noticed by the number of young people showing up between 5 and 7 p.m. in Ward 8 Manchester.

    As I told numerous Democratic friends prior to the election, I'm actually glad Republican gains were somewhat muted. Had Republicans reached 270 or more, there's no telling what type of social right wing mischief they would have felt empowered to bring forth.

    Speaking of actually glad, you may find this hard to believe--and I've been referring media to what I would write here--I'm actually glad I lost in Ward 8 (to a fellow Republican and the pizza making Democrat who disgraces himself, his party, and the institution by showing up for only 20 percent of the votes; "I'll vote for him," I heard one person tell one of his fellow Greek sign holders, "but he's got to start showing up more.")

    In past elections, I've been known for going door to door to every home in ware 8.

    Ask me how much I did this year?

    Virtually nothing; I asked for zero money in contributions; I went to zero houses; all I did was that three minute speech on local community access TV. I told friends this past week that while I would obviously serve if elected, a part of me was actually hoping to lose. As late as Thursday, the thought of visiting a thousand or so house came to mind, but only for a second or to. I'm done doing that, I told myself, and I'm really sick of this $100 a year job.

    To all the haters who are delighted in my departure, I can honestly say I join you in your glee. In the past year especially, I tired in sitting in a room with people I can't stand (I avoid using the word "hate" only to be politically correct but it would be appropriate). I'm not going to name names but the number grew when I was appointed to the Criminal Justice Committee. Hey, I hear the left wing extremist Vice Chair is involved in one of the ties.

    But I digress.

    There comes a time in life...several times if one lives long enough...when it's time to do something new yet we tend to cling to the same old habits unless pushed to change. Let's consider yesterday’s result a godsend, a push to move on to better things.

    In 1992, I felt such a need, and moved to Berlin, Germany for a year, one of the best experiences of my life.

    People ask me what I will do now, if I'll run again in two years.

    There are so many things to do. Lately I've been thinking about moving to Montreal to research and write the great American novel, "The Emperor of Quebec" about a native Vermonter who gets into radio, moves to Canada, and becomes such a hit on Montreal talk radio that he successfully leads the separation movement, kind of like the one Rene Levesque failed at, and then is "elected" the first emperor of the new nation of Quebec. It's been kicking around in the back of my head for more than 20 years, but then I've spent 18 of those years tied to this $100 a year job, having to endure slurs from ignorant people from the public to the media to god knows where else. Rest assured, the ignorant will all be characters in "The Emperor of Quebec". I didn't say the guy--I think I'll name him Ernest--moved directly to Montreal. There are lots of adventures in between.

    Ah yes, but if I choose not to do that, maybe I could get a job as a lobbyist or a reporter (who would hire me?) or perhaps a high paying job with Speaker Gene Chandler or a low paying job with the new Senator from Nashua...we'll spiff up your public imagine in no time, Kevin.

    Do I jest?

    Maybe, but there's no joking is saying how grateful I am to the masses who finally threw me out of office yesterday. Maybe it was because my attendance record slipped from 100 to 99 percent the past two years. Ignorant people would apparently prefer a No Show Rep...let's not get bitter now.

    As to running again, one never knows, but my guess is that when I walk out the State House door December 3, I'll never set foot in the building again.

    Why would any media hire me? Perhaps because of my--all modesty aside--of these stellar predictions I began with. My political insight is greater than most, and I was never really cut out to be an elected official. I value the truth too much for that; I don't tolerate fools easily (and the number of fools in politics is virtually infinite); and here's a fact not many people know--I really am an intensely private person. Sure I can deliver a good speech, but I don't enjoy small talk or endless schmoozing or buttering up to people (I've always truly loathed LBJ, for example, our second worst president ever, topped only by the racist bigot Woodrow Wilson).

    As you can tell, I pull no punches in writing here and will no longer have to be encumbered even a tad by political correctness stupidly expected of elected officials.

    Back to those predictions...

    I say I boast that I was one of the few in the entire nation to call all U.S.Senate seats correctly, but of course that's assuming the Louisiana runoff a month from now goes to Bill Cassidy, and it will; after all, Mary Landrieu received only 42 percent of the vote yesterday; Cassidy and Rob Manass accounted for 57 percent, and even arithmetically challenged Democratic spinners would have to admit that 57 is a lot more than 42.

    Are there any Democratic spinmeisters willing to show their faces in public today?

    I'm about to deliver an insult; no line like "ugly as sin" is involved, but it's a bit cruel, but too clever a line to simply let slide into oblivion, so be forewarned those easily offended might want to avert their eyes; I refer specifically to those at HuffPost, the Concord Monitor, and the Valley News.

    Speaking of spinning, did you catch Channel 9 over the weekend. With James Pindell having worn out his welcome (very much like me, it seems), the station was forced to call up new and different spinners. Gambling lobbyist and former unsuccessful Democratic Congressional candidate Jim Demers was spinning so hard and fast that things began flying off the set, everything that is except his hair which was glued as firmly in place as ever.


    That's the kind of comment you can expect to the new "No More Mister Nice Guy" prospective author of "The Emperor of Quebec".

    Back to predictions.

    It would be wrong to take too much credit; after all, in only two instances did I part way with polling data. As I noted Monday, I thought Libertarian Haugh's vote total would tank in North Carolina, and Thom Tillis would win; he did, 49.0-47.3 (an indication that the Haugh went from five to six percent polling data to only 3.7 percent at the actual polls).

    While I always expected Pat Roberts to come back and win Kansas, I admit I never thought the margin would be in double digits (53.3-42.5). Apparently Greg Orman's referring to Roberts driving around in a clown car (the legendary Kansan Bob Dole was in the car) cost him dearly at the end. There we go...into political correctness again.

    I also correctly reported that Democratic Darling Michelle Nunn had peaked to soon in Georgia; she by eight points and couldn't even get in a positon to force a runoff, the last desperate hope of Democratic spinners everywhere.  And there wasn't even a "clown car" comment to blame for her lopsided defeat.

    Oh yes, I also got called all five New Hampshire Executive Council races correctly, and here’s a personal message to lobbyist Dick Boulay, I haven’t forgotten that you bet me a steak on Joe Kenney NOT winning in district.  The bad news, Dick, is that Kenney did indeed win.  The good news is that I’m trying to be more faithful to my concern for animals needlessly tortured and slaughtered for our culinary pleasure.  While I lapse too often, right now it’s—no steak for me. 

    I am, however looking for a job.  Just a thought, Dick, just a thought.

    I'll review the elections in another post later. The most amazing thing is how all the pollsters, even when they called the races correctly, understated the Republican margin by six to 12 points in most cases. Conspiracy or simple incompetence? When faced with those options, I usually give the guilty the benefit of the doubt and chalk it up to simply incompetence. Usually but not with the MIA Pindell. He forfeited the benefit of the doubt long ago, and all indications are that he was maliciously attempting (maybe even conspiring) to get Scott Brown and to make himself the story once again.

    But that will require another lengthy posting.

    It looks like while my "work" as a State Rep may be over, there's plenty left to blog about here. In fact, I may well find the time to delve into something I've always wanted to but always placed low on the writing priority scale, serving as a media watchdog.

    Petersborough, Entfield, and Queen Avenue, indeed Stephanie, indeed. Can't Channel 9 spend a few bucks teaching their new on air hires how to pronounce New Hampshire place names?  And perhaps a few more bucks getting updated election results on the scroll…there’s no excuse for such incompetence really, not from a station that just took in millions of dollars in political ads.

    I got a million of them (yes, that's hyperbole for those who like nothing better than to accuse me of lying), and it's time to let them all hang out, if not here, then certainly in chapters of "The Emperor of Quebec".

    Page 1 ... 3 4 5 6 7 ... 399 Next 5 Entries »