http://www.nhinsider.com/rep-steve-vaillancourt/en-USSquarespace Site Server v5.11.81 (http://www.squarespace.com/)JoshuaSat, 02 Jun 2012 20:28:07 +0000http://www.nhinsider.com/rep-steve-vaillancourt/2012/6/1/more-on-the-new-hampshire-house-prediction.html#comments13961:9182735:comment/18266227
Those are extremely wise words and they aren't limited to politics.

Thank you so much for clarifying the overall prediction. You have a near encyclopedic knowledge of the NH redistricting process. Rather than harass and antagonize you, the leadership should have been seeking you out to benefit from your knowledge and insight.]]>C. dogSat, 02 Jun 2012 17:37:30 +0000http://www.nhinsider.com/rep-steve-vaillancourt/2012/6/1/say-it-aint-so-they-took-wholesome-away.html#comments13961:9182735:comment/18265460– C. dog e. doG]]>C. dogSat, 02 Jun 2012 17:29:13 +0000http://www.nhinsider.com/rep-steve-vaillancourt/2012/6/1/nh-jounral-had-dj-pregnancy-scoopa-liz-warren-parallel.html#comments13961:9182735:comment/18265353Never underestimate the tolerance of MA-MA Land liberals to stomach the putrid contents of its pols. See Ted Kennedy for confirmation. For sheer entertainment value, I hope she does make it to No-good-comes-of-it November. Where's the native american with the tear in his eye at Lizzy Warren's political gatherings? We need more cow bell!
– C. dog watches train wrecks for amusement]]>Rep Steve VaillancourtFri, 01 Jun 2012 20:33:24 +0000http://www.nhinsider.com/rep-steve-vaillancourt/2012/5/31/how-nh-house-gets-to-200r-200d.html#comments13961:9182735:comment/18259437Thanks for the chance to go into more details. I should have originally but I was having trouble with the West Side library computer.
As for Bates, it's more complicated, and redistricting comes into play. In the new system, Windham will only get four seats. In the past, it's been combined with Salem and has "stolen" some of the Salem seats; in other words, taken more than four it "deserves" by population.. Bates will have to run for one of the four Windham seats. Last time, he finished FIFTH among the Windham candidates, fourth in the GOP primary so I'd say he's on the bubble... if he decides to run; there are rumors that he won't (I'll believe it when I see it).
My Dem gains in Rockingham are mostly in the Exeter, Stratham, Hampton, Newmarket area, places where Dems were making solid gains until the 2010 GOP sweep...in other words, reversion to norm.
I've been fairly accurate with my predictions as far as direction is concerned. For example, I had Dems taking control (only Jim Splaine and I did in fact) in 2006, but I didn't give them enough. Similarly, I had Republicans regaining control in 2010, but I didn't give them enough. In other words, in attempting to keep my predictions conservative, I tend to miss the overall number (the snowball effect), but that's ok. I get the trend right, and I see a trend toward parity this year. Don't trust hack party predicters; Jim Splaine, however, is very accurate. You have to divorce what you want to happen from what you think will happen.
Al B wins; Bates is on the bubble, but they lose many many allies, and I suspect there will be no serious movement to repeal gay marriage next year.
My changes are not regardless of what happens at the top of the ticket. I see changes in the top of the ticket outlook, changes better (if not exactly good) for Demcocrats.
I suspect top of the ticket will be fairly neutral and this is always the most important factor. I still think Romney can win NH but not by much. I had seen Ted Gatsas as Governor, but now that he's not running, I suspect that will be close one way or the other...no Lynch coattails for Dems, but no coattails for Republicans either (and I am convinced Kelly Ayotte had coattails in 2010). Closeness at the top, however, will tranaslate to big Democratic gains since they start from such a low level. My original thoughts were that a Dem was sure to lose for Governor; that's no longer true, so that's a big factor in the decision to up my numbers overall. Were I a Democrat, I would support Jackie Cilley, and I think she would be less easy for Republicans to "demonize" than Maggie, so Cilley could be a big and pleasant surprise were she to score an "upset" primary win.
I also think we must factor in the damage Bill O'Brien has done to the Republican brand name...plus the Mead Milage scandal...plus the Bettencourt scandal. Each cut in itself is not that deadly, but as the wounds continue to bleed closer to November, it could be toxic...espcially if two or three more shoes drop (hey, that would make a great cartoon...O'Brien standing near a closet with shoes falling from a ledge onto his head! Take it, Mike M, I give it to you).
I am truly undecided about running personllay and will not decide until the final hour (that's fodder for a separate blog), but if I run, I would rate my chances as good but not certain...as I say, it'll be a bad year for Manchester Republicans, but my ward is the most Republican in the city, especially in a Presidential year. And the forces of OB could always try to challenge me in a GOP primary...although my HRA ranking is higher than most GOP leaders and in the past GOP hasn't even been able to fill the slate in Ward 8.]]>JoshuaFri, 01 Jun 2012 04:01:57 +0000http://www.nhinsider.com/rep-steve-vaillancourt/2012/5/31/how-nh-house-gets-to-200r-200d.html#comments13961:9182735:comment/18252497
- If it is true that the NH GOP is fated to lose 12 seats in Rockingham, I truly hope that Reps. Bates and Baldasaro are 2 of the 12. No tears would be shed.

- Last year, you thought that the final outcome in the House would depend in part on the results in the Presidential and gubernatorial races, but now are you predicting these severe losses regardless of what happens up ticket?

- Did you make a prediction in 2010 and if so how accurate were you?]]>steve vaillancourtWed, 30 May 2012 15:23:16 +0000http://www.nhinsider.com/rep-steve-vaillancourt/2012/5/29/my-dj-reaction-if-its-good-enough-for-the-monitor-its-good-e.html#comments13961:9182735:comment/18244834JoshuaWed, 30 May 2012 03:00:48 +0000http://www.nhinsider.com/rep-steve-vaillancourt/2012/5/29/my-dj-reaction-if-its-good-enough-for-the-monitor-its-good-e.html#comments13961:9182735:comment/18242517Daisy MaeTue, 29 May 2012 02:15:44 +0000http://www.nhinsider.com/rep-steve-vaillancourt/2012/5/24/holy-irony-batman-pedophile-pimp-coiner-feigns-indignation.html#comments13961:9182735:comment/18236854
Today is May 28th.....stay tuned!]]>