Rep Steve Vaillancourt



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Monday
Jan282013

Dr. Krauthammer's Unsolvable Equation

For a smart man, Dr. Charles Krauthammer, columnist and Fox News contributor (long known as Charles the Good in this wise), said something incredibly stupid as one of a myriad of panelists over the weekend at National Review's focus on the future of conservatism in American (most of it was aired on C-Span One).

When asked about demographic trends that the Republican Party needs to overcome (93 percent of African Americans voted for Obama in 2012 but even more alarming, he carried more than 70 percent of the Hispanic and Asian vote), Dr. Krauthammer commented that if you take Hispanics out of the equation, the Republicans are in fine shape.

That would be like saying if you take California, New York, and Illinois out of the equation, Republicans would be in fine shape.

You can't take those states out of the equation, and you can't take the ever-increasing Hispanic population out of the equation of American electoral politics.

In fact, it could be argued that Hispanics ARE the equation.

Not only that, but Dr. Krauthammer completed ignored another segment of the population which Republicans have managed to totally alienate. 

You're way ahead of me.

I speak, of course, of the LGBT community.  For those unfamiliar with the acronym, that stands for lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender portion of the population, perhaps as much as ten percent but to avoid an argument, let's say it's only five percent.  That's still a significant percent of the voting public which Republicans have written out of the "equation".

To be fair to the good doctor, he did propose a Republican solution for the GOP's Hispanic problem.  If we could be assured that the border would be closed to new illegal immigrants (Charles favors a fence), he says we should accept a pathway to citizenship for the 11 million illegals here now.

That seems to be what Senator Marco Rubio and others are doing for Republicans these days, but frankly, it might be too late. 

With the loss of Hispanics and homosexuals, sad to say, Dr. Krauthammer and Republicans just might be left with an unsolvable equation.

Thursday
May262011

Never Trust So-Called Pollster Dick Morris

            Dick Morris, apparently unable to earn enough from Fox News to maintain his expensive life style (remember the 1996 bout with prostitutes who specialized in foot fetishes), has apparently gone back into the polling business.

            Last week, he told Bill O’Reilly, whom I respect greatly, that he would produce new polling data in the wake of Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump deciding not to run for President.

            After waiting anxiously for a week, I was thoroughly disappointed with the fraudulent polling numbers Morris came up with Wednesday night.  For weeks, Morris has been shilling for Newt Gingrich, so it came as no surprise that the half million dollar jewelry man did much better in the Morris poll than he’s doing in other polls.

            What was really stunning was that Morris didn’t even include Ron Paul in his polling.  This comes the same week that Andy Smith’s UNH poll has Ron Paul running second (albeit a distant second) behind Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, and a new Gallup poll has Ron Paul tied with Gingrich for second nationwide behind Mitt Romney.  (Romney 19, Ron Paul 12, Gingrich 12, Herman Cain 8, Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty 7, John Huntsman and Gary Johnson 3, Rick Santorum 2).

            I’ve dashed off an email (pithy of course) to oreilly@foxnews.com expressing wonder at how he could feature Morris who thoroughly disgraces himself not by shelling for the Newtster but by designing supposedly neutral polls to achieve his desired result.

            This is the worst kind of polling, the thing that gives all polling a bad name, and one would never expect an honorable man like Bill O’Reilly to be part of it.

            Here’s the Morris poll, as enumerated on O’Reilly and as currently posted on the Morris web site (with Palin out of the race):  Romney 30, Gingrich 15, Bachmann and Cain 7, Palwenty 5, Santorum 3, and Huntsman 1.  Unless Ron Paul scored less than one percent (virtually impossible), it should be clear that Morris deliberately decided to leave him out completely.

            Talk about skewing results by what you choose to ask people.

            This is an outrage, and I do not say that simply as a Ron Paul supporter (although, as I tell people every week on my TV show and in nearly every blog I post, I am indeed a Ron Paul supporter).  It’s an outrage because someone who claims to be producing real public sentiment can leave out of his sampling the very man who’s running second in New Hampshire and second nationwide at the same time he includes Santorum and Huntsman in his poll.

             O'Reilly, in his own (unscientific) poll, the results of which will be aired later, lists only four Republicans to vote for, but if you go to his Fox web site, there's a fifth candidate listed.  Yes, that would be Ron Paul, and guess what?

             You're way ahead of me...Ron Paul is way ahead...Paul 38.2%, Cain 23.6%, Romney 16.2%, Pawlenty 14.3% and last and certainly least the at Newtster 7.7%.  Yes, it's true; O'Reilly's own viewers prefer Ron Paul by nearly a five to one margin over the jewelry man.  Apparently, O'Reilly plans to keep Paul's numbers hidden from his viewers.  

            Here’s a scoop for Bill O’Reilly or anyone in the lame stream media (note that I borrow Bernie Goldberg’s terminology) who care to use it.  Nearly two dozen New Hampshire Republican State Reps have already agreed to endorse Ron Paul, and we hope to double that number by the primary next winter.

            I’ve followed Dick Morris’s career closely, and the man, who has a history of shameless behavior, has hit a new low with this new poll.

            I take that back.

            This is probably not as shameless as the foot fetish/prostitute episode which exploded nationwide right during the 1996 Democratic convention renominating Bill Clinton whom Morris had worked for.

            On Fox News, Morris goes out of his way to make outrageous pronouncements, and the fact that he’s usually proven wrong doesn’t slow him down.  For example, he insisted last fall that Republicans would not only take control of the U.S. House (his numbers were all over the map, depending on whom he was talking to on a given day), but that they also would take the U.S. Senate.

            Wrong!

            Wishful thinking by the neoRepublican Morris but wrong, and there’s nothing worse than one being wrong with wishful thinking, in other words of deluding yourself by confusing what you hope will happen with what you think will happen.

            In the Real Clear Politics average today (perhaps outdated because it still includes Huckabee, Trump, and Daniels), Newt Gingrich is in at 8.1 percent, Ron Paul at 7.9 percent.  In other words, they’re virtually tied, yet Dick Morris includes the Newtster in his poll (and touts him in every public appearance) and totally ignores the Congressman from Texas.

            In trying to figure out why Morris would hold Gingrich in such high regard, I came up with this theory.  Both acted out badly in public, embarrassing their spouses in the process (Newt with the treatment of his sick wife, Morris with the foot fetish incident), and both in blatant attempt to convince the public that they are now good family men, mention their current wives at every opportunity.  Both in fact share book credits with their wives.

            I’ve always fond it odd that Morris and Gingrich, among all public officials, constantly slip in mention of their wives.  Now I get it.  Lest I play the role of Oprah or shrink, I’ve come to believe it’s not because they feel shame over their past conduct, but like a celebrity in drug rehab, it’s because they want the public to think better of them.

            Gingrich, with his inane comments the past week, will never be thought better of by the public.  If Morris doesn’t see that, at least his fellow Fox commentators Karl Rove and Charles Krauthammer do.

            As long as Morris continues his outrageous comments and his unbelievable polling tactics, he like Gingrich will never be reformed in the eyes of the public…no matter how much money he manages to rake in.