Predictions for Obama's Recovery Speech

Tonight Obama plans to go before the nation and put forward his recovery plan version 2.  I'm going to put out my predictions as far as what I'm expecting to hear from him (note: this is far different then what I'd like to hear from him, read further down for details).

1) He'll continue the blame game.  I'm fully expecting he will bring up Bush, the tea party and/or the Republican lead congress and attempt to point fingers at them as the source of all that's wrong with the world today.

2) He'll push for more spending.

3) This goes hand in hand with #2 but he'll push for more government.  He'll use the terms either "shove ready jobs" again or claim we need to rebuild our infrastructure despite the fact we are spending more now on the federal level then ever before in US history.

4) He'll push to give more to states which isn't so much to help states as much as fund state level union jobs.  I'm expecting he'll bring up the fear of losing teachers, fire fighters and police as the examples used.

5) Acting as if the scandal with Evergreen Solar never happened he'll continue to push for more green spending.

6) There will be attacks on the rich who in the view of the left aren't paying their "fair share"

7) #6 will lead into the call for higher taxes on the wealthy and those who can afford it.

8) There will be a call to put more money in the hands of average Americans with extending the Social Security Payroll Tax cut or tax breaks for the lowest level of income earners (read as giving money to those who don't even pay taxes in the first place).

9) He'll call to extend unemployment benefits.

10) He'll call for bipartisan support for his plan and claim we should be working together.

In other words you will be able to pull up a replay of his last few interviews and speeches about his recovery plans version 1 and there wont be much different.  He's going to push for more of the same that isn't working.

If you look at recessions in recent US history and their following recoveries, Obama's so far has been the worst.

Of course that doesn't stop the left from spinning away anyway they can including claiming the chart supplied by the Romney camp claims its attempting to deceive in an attempt to take the focus off the lack of recovery and onto trival issues which require you to incorrectly read the above chart.

What I would like to hear tonight is for Obama to flat out admit his recovery plans have failed and that he needs to try something proven.  I would love to hear that he is going to look at what actually worked under Reagan and follow that guideline to turn this nation around.

Look at what Reagan did that WORKED...
1) Cut Marginal tax rates

2) Put his foot down to government Unions by firing all the air traffic controllers

3) Loosened regulations on the telecommunication industry which created the booming market we still benefit from today

4) Lessened the unfunded mandates the feds place on states

Obama by contrast has...
1) Continued leading a push for higher taxes
2) Bailed out unions and expanded unions on the federal government level
3) Expanded regulations in the health and financial sectors
4) Put even more mandates on state governments and through bail outs gave money with strings attached which lead to even higher demands for state spending.

Unless Obama has some radical new ideas that have never been tried, I'm expecting more of the same of his already failed ideas instead of looking back at history and using ideas that have actually worked.

One last prediction...

I am fully expecting that between tonight and Monday leftwing web sites like Blue Hampshire, Daily Kos and Think Progress will post frantically claiming that a) what Obama said this time is somehow different and new and b) that it is going to be the answer for all our problems.  You'll also see the regular posters on those sites and the regular lefties on sites like the Telegraph and union leader both blaming everyone right of center (and possibly even center too) and cheering Obama's every word.  By middle of next week the papers will have at least a couple letters to the editors doing both as well.  We may very well even get a letter from former congress woman Carol Shea-Porter once the words are given to her from another left wing source.

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Update on Thursday, September 8, 2011 at 08:51PM by Rick Barnes

Let's see how I did:

1) He'll continue the blame game.  I'm fully expecting he will bring up Bush, the tea party and/or the Republican lead congress and attempt to point fingers at them as the source of all that's wrong with the world today.

Obama's comment: "They [Americans] have seen the deck too often stacked against them. And they know that Washington hasn't always put their interests first."

I consider that a correct prediction.

2) He'll push for more spending.

$450 Billion in new spending, correct again.  And as Yahoo points out HERE it's not paid for as he claimed it would be.

3) This goes hand in hand with #2 but he'll push for more government.  He'll use the terms either "shove ready jobs" again or claim we need to rebuild our infrastructure despite the fact we are spending more now on the federal level then ever before in US history.

Obama's statement "The purpose of the American Jobs Act is simple: to put more people back to work and more money in the pockets of those who are working. It will create more jobs for construction workers, more jobs for teachers, more jobs for veterans, and more jobs for the long-term unemployed."

ie more government

4) He'll push to give more to states which isn't so much to help states as much as fund state level union jobs.  I'm expecting he'll bring up the fear of losing teachers, fire fighters and police as the examples used.

See statement in response to #3

Also "Pass this jobs bill, and thousands of teachers in every state will go back to work. These are the men and women charged with preparing our children for a world where the competition has never been tougher. But while they're adding teachers in places like South Korea, we're laying them off in droves. It's unfair to our kids. It undermines their future and ours. And it has to stop. Pass this jobs bill, and put our teachers back in the classroom where they belong."

Correct again

5) Acting as if the scandal with Evergreen Solar never happened he'll continue to push for more green spending.

Obama's statement "Should we keep tax loopholes for oil companies? Or should we use that money to give small business owners a tax credit when they hire new workers? Because we can't afford to do both."

Not quite what I expect so I'll say this one is half right.

6) There will be attacks on the rich who in the view of the left aren't paying their "fair share"

100% correct here's one of his statements "Should we keep tax breaks for millionaires and billionaires? Or should we put teachers back to work so our kids can graduate ready for college and good jobs? Right now, we can't afford to do both."

Also "While most people in this country struggle to make ends meet, a few of the most affluent citizens and corporations enjoy tax breaks and loopholes that nobody else gets. Right now, Warren Buffet pays a lower tax rate than his secretary - an outrage he has asked us to fix. We need a tax code where everyone gets a fair shake, and everybody pays their fair share. And I believe the vast majority of wealthy Americans and CEOs are willing to do just that, if it helps the economy grow and gets our fiscal house in order."

7) #6 will lead into the call for higher taxes on the wealthy and those who can afford it.

See comments posted in response to #6.  100% correct on this

8) There will be a call to put more money in the hands of average Americans with extending the Social Security Payroll Tax cut or tax breaks for the lowest level of income earners (read as giving money to those who don't even pay taxes in the first place).

"It will provide a tax break for companies who hire new workers, and it will cut payroll taxes in half for every working American and every small business."

"Pass this jobs bill, and companies will get a $4,000 tax credit if they hire anyone who has spent more than six months looking for a job."

"Pass this jobs bill, and the typical working family will get a fifteen hundred dollar tax cut next year."

100% correct on this one too.

9) He'll call to extend unemployment benefits.

"The plan also extends unemployment insurance for another year."

Bingo, correct again.

10) He'll call for bipartisan support for his plan and claim we should be working together.

In the speech he made 5 references to Democrats and Republicans working together. 

"Everything in here is the kind of proposal that's been supported by both Democrats and Republicans - including many who sit here tonight."

"It's the kind of proposal that's been supported in the past by Democrats and Republicans alike. You should pass it right away."

"Democrats and Republicans in this Chamber have supported unemployment insurance plenty of times in the past. At this time of prolonged hardship, you should pass it again — right away."

"This expands on the tax cut that Democrats and Republicans already passed for this year."

"Every proposal I've laid out tonight is the kind that's been supported by Democrats and Republicans in the past."

I'd consider this one correct as well.

Looks like I nailed it.  Much of the same tired ideas that have been pushed out and have not yet worked.

Giving a company a $4,000 break if they spend tens of thousands they don't have on a new position isn't going to help create jobs.  Creating more temporary construction jobs isn't going to give the economy the boost it needs, hasn't with the prior stimulus plans and wont now either.

I really wish Obama had come up with something new and I could have come out and said I was dead wrong on my predictions but sadly I wasn't.