New Hampshire Got Jobs!?

How about some jobs?  New Hampshire is reporting an April unemployment rate of 4.9%.  I don't have the exact numbers but using previous months figures as a guide this should be the result of both another slight increase in workforce population and a shift from the unemployed column to the employed column.   This is unlike last year when the initial "improvement" we saw was actually the result of workforce decline--people had stopped looking or receiving benefits and dropped out of the equation.

This is encouraging given the national employment numbers; we are also still best of breed in the North East, though Vermont is not too far behind us.  But the bigger news id that John Lynch was so excited he blamed low taxes.

"The reason New Hampshire is outperforming virtually every other state is because was have a successful economic strategy in place. New Hampshire is one of the most business-friendly states in the nation, with the lowest state taxes, and we must continue to follow the principles of our strategy if we are to continue moving New Hampshire forward.

Former Democrat house Speaker Terie "Billion Dollar Deficit" Norelli must have puked in her mouth when she read that.  Low taxes? She just spent (literally) the past four years digging us into a billion dollar deficit so democrats would have an excuse to raise taxes.  The damn voters screwed that up by showing the tax and spenders the door, though for how long is anyone's guess.  People who have jobs have short memories.

But for now we have the lefts only toe hold on power--small toe that it is--announcing that low taxes stimulate job growth.  Maybe Governor Lynch forgot but we watched him sign off on dozens of taxes including business abuse taxes like the Tent, and LLC tax to name just two. 

Did he forget that the Republicans were the ones trying to keep the taxes low all along?

That's something we can never get tired of hearing.  Republicans are for low taxes.  Low state taxes help create more jobs. There.  It's etched in Granite.  Thanks Governor Lynch.  We agree. Now how about you get with the program?

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Unemployment- Is the Good News Bad?

The percentage went down to 9.4% for December but is that a good thing?  We will have to wait until we get the January numbers to shake out the holiday hiring but overall it is not strong news.

While there was some private sector hiring (yeah), some of the change that drove the rate lower was from an increase in people who gave up looking (boo.)  Employment, or unemployment, is calcualted by taking those out of work and comparing it to those looking for work and working--people identifed as in the work force.  When you drop out of the workforce, you are no longer part of the 9.4% unemployment figure.  You get to be part of the un or underemployed (marginally attached) number which is still around 17%.

Again, mixed bag.  The total size of the labor force edged down which is not good.  Involuntary part time workers was unchanged, also not great news. And the marginally attached figure rose as 389,000 people became discouraged and stopped looking for work. (yuck!)

So we are at 9.4% but until the labor force starts to grow steadily, as this number declines, we need to be suspicious of the job picture and any premature celebrations.  And I would not count on any truly happy news as long as we are staring at this kind of public debt.

The debt is a message to the business community.  It says "I am your future tax burden--come give me a hug."  And as long as leviathan remains super sized and growing, the job picture will continue to stagnate.   No business is going to invest in more employees or much else with the that kind of threat lingering over their heads unless they know they will need and use them.

We need to make serious long term and permanent cuts to government spending.  There should be obvious and measurable declines in the national debt and deficit.  And while you are at it, remove some barriers that increase the cost of doing business.  At that point, you might start to see some meaningful improvement across the board, that is if adding jobs is something we are serious about.

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Breaking An Addiction To Government

The December New Hampshire labor report, period ending October 2010, is not all that remarkable.  Coos county is still suffering while overall the state is hanging in at 5.4%.  This number is still reflective of issues with the size of the labor force versus mid 2009 numbers.  We have to watch that as we head through the November and December reports into January, where holiday hiring will add to the labor force, and then most likley drop off.

What may have been the most interesting aspect of the new report however, was this paragraph from the first page.

In New Hampshire private industry GDP growth was below that of government. The current dollar change in private industry between 2008 and 2009 was almost non-existent. less than a $1 million dollar difference.  When adjusted for inflation private GDP saw a 1.5% percent decrease.  Government however (this is New Hampshire State Government) saw a 4.6% increase in current dollars.

This is how democrat controlled states feign growth. 

So is John Lynch's 'recovery' built on a foundation of one time money from Washington to expand the role of government?  That would be a yes.  The Norelli/Larsen/Lynch combine took the company credit card, bought a bunch of goods and services from themselves in the form of more government, and are now left with more mouths to feed and a huge recurring annual bill for which there is no revenue.

This would not only create a false sense of growth on the GDP side, it produces an employment picture that is also something of a lie.  A lie that is no different than the 'surplus' lie that was regurgitated by the local media, the democrats, the little governor that could (not) and his RINO Republican's whose bridge-drug addiction to spending makes them no better than the liberal-progressives whose binge-spending got us into this mess.  The truth of the structural deficit was clouded over by democrat deceit and a false surplus, until the left got hammered--now, there is no surplus and we have a looming 600 million dollar deficit.  (Suckley--Sullivan and Buckley--are probably already at work prodding the historical revisionists in their Concord offices so the media will have the right messaging to regurgitate through the echo chamber moving into the 2012 cycle)

Mental note to electorate. These democrats are lying bastards.

On a bright note, we (New Hampshire) seem to have asked the grown-ups to step in, cut up the credit cards, and set things right.  But like any withdrawal from addiction, (cigarettes, video-games, gambling, alcohol, facebook, cocaine, heroin, pornography, government spending) it will not be a pleasant experience.  We may wake up some days feeling less than happy with ourselves or our decision to get 'clean.'  Throughout our real recovery, the democrat 'whinery' will be producing the same old vintage--screaming for another 'hit' to make the pain go away like a daemon on our shoulder trying to drag us further into dependence. 

But we have to ignore them.  This is New Hampshire.  We are independent, self responsible, hard working people, who like our government small and local.  We can do better and we will.

Just remember; the left used government to create the lie of growth and stability, charging you more for less when jobs and income were in decline, based on a model whose glue would eventually mean less and less money in your pocket to keep the parts stuck together.  A model that adds parts and needs more of your glue with every passing year.  The same model that is collapsing in California, New York, Michigan, and other former great states that have been (or are being) reduced to the pathetic ash heap of history by years of democrat rule and chronic migration away from their crumbling government edifices who cannot stand on their own.

New Hampshire does not have to go out that way.  We can break the addiction.  And the voters have asked for that change.  It is a change that will eventually bring more companies, more jobs, and real growth--not the false "more government kind.'  And while the journey to recovery could be a rough road, we may never have a better opportunity that the next two years to get this done.

And once we get out, we have to make sure we never go back.

Image Source: thesassyminx.com

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Inconveninet Truths About The October Jobs Numbers

Jobs numbers are tricky things.  Politicians will always tell you what you want to hear and leave out what they don't want you to hear.  So it is no surprise that we are getting the same old song and dance, that "the economy created private sector jobs again."  That's a nice thing to hear, but is it an improvement or are we still arranging deck chairs on the Titanic?

Deck chair anyone?

Unemployment is still at 9.6 percent and despite claims of job growth for ten months, unemployment has been at or above 9.6% for 20 months.

The numbers do not add up.

We have 14.8 million people unemployed according to the Bureau of Labor(ing) Statistics.   Forty-two percent of the unemployed have been jobless for more than 27 weeks.

The number of people underemployed dropped by 318,000 but the number of people marginally attached to the work force (not counted in the unemployment number) rose from 2.4 to 2.6 million.  Is it safe to suggest where most of those 318,000 underemployed workers ended up?

The number of people who stopped looking (discouraged workers) is up 411,000 from October of 2009 with the  total rising from 1.2 to 1.4 million.

These are not the numbers you find when you have a pro-growth economic environment.  They are the product of stagnation with slow bleeding.  They are entirely responsible for the historical shift in power in the US congress.  And until such time as the uncertainty of tax increases, the threat of inflation, the anchor of massive debt and the over regulation and cost increasing and job killing power of ObamaCare are releived, this will continue.

Progressive policy is entirely to blame for  the current stasis in the job market, two years of destruction that could take a decade to undo.



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Beware Misleading Jobs Numbers

If New Hampshire only had one person in their workforce, and they had a job, unemployment would be at 0%.  Keep that in mind as John Lynch and the democrats short-stroke the September adjusted jobs number around as a sign that they are good for the economy.  They are not.

The unemployment number is merely a reflection of how many people are actually in the workforce, versus how many of that number are working.  You could manage to create no jobs at all and have unemployment go down simply because the number of people looking kept getting smaller every month.

Well that what's been happening in the Granite State, so take the news in this mornings paper of a recent decrease in the unemployment percentage with a shaker of salt.  John Lynch will want to spin this as John's economic recovery stage show, but how do you sell that when people are leaving the theater in droves?  You don't tell anyone they are leaving.

So the big news will be that the unemployment percentage went down. But it is not so much that the percentage went down, it's why did it go down.  Down is not necessarily an indicator of economic prosperity or poltical/economic improvement.

According to historical data from the September New Hampshire Economic and Labor Market information Bureau, in July of 2009 the NH work force was 755,820 strong.  As of the September 2010 report, the workforce was only 739,500.  That means 16,320 people vanished, gave up, or decided there were no Jobs in New Hampshire.  That's 2.2% of the current workforce the governor does not have to explain as unemployed because they are not looking for work here anymore.

We actually had more people working in more positions in February when unemployment was 7.1%.  Since then the workforce has declined steadily and the number of unemployed with it.  That means the unemployed were not finding jobs, they were leaving New Hampshire or just gave up and even small increases in employed persons leaves us well below the previous year.

Maybe John Lunch want's to spin this as John's economic recovery stage show, but how do you sell that when people are leaving the theater in droves?

Looking at the employment numbers from the same data we had 10,980 fewer people actually working in the state from those employed in July of 2009, with only 5,340 fewer unemployed in the same period. So while it looks like only 5,000 fewer people had jobs by the 9/2010 report release, there were also 11,000 fewer jobs to be had and 16,000 fewer people looking for them.

If losing 11,000 jobs and 16,000 job seekers is what democrats call 'good for New Hampshire' then I can't wait till we get to 0% unemployment.  No one will be working here, but they'll still spin it as good for you, and the state. 

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