How Ayotte Can Lose, Part II

 

Continued from part I…

In November I received a fundraising letter from the Ayotte campaign, it was a letter asking for money. Money that apparently Ayotte doesn’t have.

But I think where the campaign may be lacking in hard currency it makes up for this in equity, namely in a solid performance as Attorney General and as an insider at the Statehouse means access to capital. And this margin strategy might actually work. Ms. Ayotte stands to turn thousands of dollars into a multimillion dollar U.S. Senate seat.

There’s one immediate problem with this strategy though. And this problem is Manchester attorney Ovide Lamontagne; an experienced candidate that I think could show that the Ayotte campaign is nothing more than a house of cards constructed recklessly on margin. And ultimately that Ayotte is using capital that isn’t hers to try and win this election.

Enter political strategy.

History can and does repeat itself. After two terms in Congress Jackson resident Bill Zelliff decided to make a run for Governor. I remember his pompous staffers spouting statistics, strategy, etc. like New Hampshire is some backwoods place where no one knows anything. At the time this arrogant based fluff and the three syllable words seemed to me to be more like ego stroking rather than a coherent political strategy. Weeks later I would hear the rumor that in the closing weeks of the primary campaign Zelliff simply stopped campaigning, these elitist assholes convinced their candidate that the race had in fact already been won. And guess what happened…

Right after Zelliff gave his concession speech on the night of the primary, I overheard one of Zelliff’s most ardent political supporters Councilor Ray Burton “Well, we mine as well hand this race to Shaheen.” In politics never expect the unexpected.

But endorsements or Republican loyalty or not are neither here nor there. And what is here is a primary battle between Ayotte and Lamontagne in a political conflict that I think pits margin money against grassroots substance. And who will win this race?

I hope the former Attorney General is left by the side of the road covered in dust saying to the effect "Honestly, like nothing there's no winning." "It's definately a lose-lose situation." I think Ms. Ayotte is using way too much margin, too much beltway influence, not enough attention to detail and not enough time with the voters and the real issues.  

And with history as a basis this could happen.