Is this the end of John Stephen?
Thursday, February 25, 2010 at 09:36PM
By several indications by the end of next week former Commissioner John Stephen will be a candidate for Governor of New Hampshire.
That’s the easy part.
Everything else is likely to be an uphill battle. Perhaps it’s the wrong comparison with NH politics but if you ask any master in the game of chess about strategy most if not all of them will state the same thing:
"No one ever wins at chess by forcing anything."
I think Commissioner Stephen, for unknown reason(s) is forcing this race or his candidacy to happen which is a strategic mistake. And there are a number of reasons for this. First is the name recognition. Assuming the Stephen campaign has the millions of dollars available for ad buys and grassroots retail marketing; the campaign will have to not only get around a Republican primary field but somehow build this needed name recognition and then link all that is wrong with New Hampshire to Governor Lynch.
I know there are some brilliant campaign strategists in New Hampshire but can this realistically be done?
UNH can have all the survey polls it can amass, with a +-7% margin of error but study after study has shown that consumer behavior is completely influenced by brand/name recognition followed by the price point. Studies have shown that when the price is lowered for brands that are perceived to be expensive i.e. Mercedes Benz cars that overall long-term sales and market demand actually declines. The reason: consumer perception. With this as an example, how will the Stephen campaign be able to build name recognition and stand a chance of defeating an incumbent without unleashing attack ads against Governor Lynch? I think Stephen has to go negative.
How else does Stephen build market and demand, and defeat his entrenched opponent without lowering his price?
Imagine the former Health and Human Services Commissioner coming up to Berlin in the shadows of unemployment, social strata, section 8 housing and standing near a bridge over the Androscoggin River saying something comparable to a Stephen Merrill campaign ad: “and that’s the New Hampshire way.” I don’t know who is advising Commissioner Stephen to enter this race, perhaps he is advising himself? It would be interesting to see how they arrived at the strength(s) of his campaign. Did they consider the Republican primary? Did they consider the financial issues and fundraising (if applicable)?
And lastly did they consider the re-election efforts of Governor Lynch?
Reader Comments (10)
Lynch should also have the president come up here and campaign for him, maybe even get some sort of huge federal bonus like Louisiana and Nebraska did. People would like that especially up north.
That would be a winning combination. Stephen wouldn't stand a chance.
But then I'm no expert.
I think the lack of name recognition is going to be a substantial liability for candidate Stephen. This has nothing to with qualifications, politics or what either candidate would do for New Hampshire.
You've probally heard the expression, "people are afraid of what they don't understand." And politics and consumer based marketing is a clear example of how this works.
Governor Lynch has the advantage in this race because of name recognition alone.
I also think your arguement of 100K in Senate District 16 is seriously flawed.
Voters.
Capital.
Thank you for reading my posts Mr. Naile.
To be honest, who ever heard of John Lynch before he ran for governor. I did not see him anywhere.
John Stephen could easily be the beneficiary of a pent up demand for, of all things, "change" in Concord.
If money was the answer Goley would have trounced Boutin but that was an overwhelming loss per dollar for the dems.
Lynch has exposed his homosexual marriage liberal not amoderate flank and if smart voters understand that he will go full tilt income tax when it becomes clear how much NH is in debt when the next budget cycle comes up, he has problems.
Can Stephen capitalize on those problems?
He has a first hand knowledge of the inner working of the Dept of Safety and HHS from being there. I would warn Lynch that when someone like John Stephen has been on the inside of several departments he will have the ability to "pull a rabbit out of a hat" during debates or campaigning. There is nothing like saying sorry but I was THERE when...
Lynch has been safely too aloof from what is going on in this state - good for avoiding blame but not good for showing leadership.
Stephen will not have much trouble in the primary, he is a known quantity among Republican primary voters, but think if he did! What would that say about an energized grass-roots.
This could get interesting.
I had never heard of John Lynch eithier. But what I'll say about his campaign abilities: not only does he have the ability to manage all aspects of a political campaign he has the image game down to an exact science.
John Stephen is an experienced insider and at this point he has better qualifications for the corner office than the incumbent. I'd be really excited if a number of similar candiates came forward to challenge the Democratic members of the Executive Council. And yes, they're all Democrats in their attitudes, performance and politics.
Last point. Though you and I may know and understand, or think we understand, politics and policy in New Hampshire. It is the voters that are the real policymakers. Voters that likely will put more thought into the choice between fresh and frozen chicken brands than they will the names for the next Governor of New Hampshire. This is unfortunate but this the reality.
If John Stephen wants to win this race he needs to understand the market that he is in. I'm confident that he does. I'm thinking about a Sun Tzu "Art of War" quote right now but since I don't have it right in front of me I won't quote it.
Thanks again for spending time on my blogs. This is why I do it.
Just remember, John lynch sold himself as something he is not.
He's run the budget hundreds of millions into the hole and no one cares. In fact polls show most people aren't even aware that NH is in a deficit.
He goes against what polls show the majority of people want... first voting to strip parents of their parental rights allowing children to get abortions without them even knowing and then going against popular voice to prevent NH from allowing medical use of marijuana.
Any time controversy strikes in NH, Lynch goes into his bunker and isn't seen or heard from until it is well past by the attention of the mainstream public.
He does come out time and time again for photo opts. Tours storm damaged areas and puts on a good face when tragedy strikes. He looks good in a yellow rain coat.
The man is like Teflon. Despite the deficit, unpopular bills passed and popular bills vetoed, he remains highly popular and no one can explain why other then he shows up for photo opts. He's like Obama was during the 2008 election... he can say and do anything and people just see exactly what they want to see in him. Until they begin to see the real failures in NH, Lynch is unbeatable.
Companies spend millions of dollars doing this. And it shows.
But the one issue for Lynch, or one that he should be concerned about is the party Chairman Sununu is a briliiant mathmatcian and has a great deal of expereince at the strategy. This is combined with the fact that the candidate himself has knowlege of the grassroots elements of campaigning and how to secure the votes.
I agree with Mr. Naile this race is going to get interesting.
But there are still some significant challenges ahead for candidate Stephen this is a definate.
Granted, he is not leading the Governor, but his upward trend as opposed to the Gov's spiral downward below 50 percent, 'ain't half bad'.
Just wondering if Mr. Connolly would be having anything positive to say about Stephen now.
Thanks,
Jerry McConnell
Hampton, NH
lethrneck@
NB: received this comment via email at NHInsider, email address deliberately altered for privacy
I'm curious as to why this hasn't caught traction.
Of course Stephen is going to the GOP nominee. This is establishment politics-- that's the way it's done. I've also never made the arguement that Stephen isn't effective at campaigning because he his.
To your question about 50% approval ratings and markers. Does any of this really appeal to the mainstream NH voter and who they will actaully vote for in November? The campaigns haven't even started yet; I'm confident it will be a substantial battle. And when the smoke clears either one of these candidates can win. I think the winner will be decided though a combination of strategy, tactics the immediate circumstances and a slight margin to the candidate that can deploy an effective marketing technique.
I do think that Lynch still has a slight edge here. Even with the falling popularity ratings.I'm also curious how Stephen will finance his campaign.