Inasmuch as I can appreciate the NH Redbook analysis Rep. Steve Vaillancourt did on Senate District #1 when he made the statement that Berlin Rep. Thurbridge (sic) was going to be the likely winner; I didn’t agree I don’t see this candidate even finishing in the money.
I didn’t argue with Rep. Vaillancourt at the time because what I envisioned was that the situation in this district would improve. And it clearly hasn’t. This is probably a slam against the two likely candidates for the retiring Sen. John Gallus but if either one of them is elected I don’t see anything major happening in northern NH for the next two years which is unfortunate and very sad.
Let’s move on to my analysis and opinion on how all this is going to shake down:
Jeff Woodburn will be the Democratic nominee; a well experienced political operative I’ve known Jeff since he was Executive Director for Congressman Dick Swett. At the grassroots campaign level he will be unstoppable so the strategy question then becomes the financial part, if his Republican opponent is willing to sink 60-70-80K into this race will he be willing to match?, and if this is even needed. Woodburn might be able to run a name recognition grassroots campaign spend a fraction and still prevail.
Then there is the Republican opponent and I’m really unhappy about this. And I’ll share this unhappiness by saying that when Sen. Gallus announced his retirement I was hoping this would usher in a new era of prosperity and direction for northern New Hampshire. I’ve stated it before I was hoping Barry Kelly the CEO of White Mountain Lumber would enter the District #1 race. Mr. Kelly has succeeded in both the volatile lumber business and the ravages of the Berlin area economy; a feat most mortal human beings couldn’t even begin to scale. Mr. Kelly is what northern New Hampshire needs right now.
But he isn’t running...
Instead the Republican endorsed candidate is a psychologist named Deborah Warner from Littleton you’ve probably seen her cute home renovation fluff in the Weirs Times; but I will say this her name recognition is immense and her conservative endorsements seem to be racking up exponentially, it’s almost like some political storm strategy has been unleashed that has been years in the making.
Picture a torrential rain after years of a long, dry drought and the famous speech by Charlton Heston about the rights of gun owners.
But where does it all lead in Senate District #1?
I’ll discuss this more in a later blog…