Like some residents of northern NH I'm following the upcoming race for Senate District 1.
Candidates Deborah Warner from Littleton against Jeff Woodburn from Carroll.
If I were to call this race from the grassroots, local level then it will be a Warner win. Not by a huge margin but over the 50%. I'll do 51.37% for Warner and 48.63% for Woodburn. The wild card here is the Hanover-Dartmouth area (southern Grafton Co.) and what kind of turnout and for which candidate. The surprise here will be Berlin. Once a democratic mainstay, not anymore. I see Warner getting 42% in the wards in Berlin to 58% for Woodburn, significant here because a few short years ago it would have been an 70 to 30 percent split. This situation in Conway will be similar, those that actually vote in Conway this whole area is now more of a bedroom community to Massachusetts than a place in New Hampshire. I'll also predict this with this new photo ID voting requirement voter turnout will trend lower ;why would a young person want to take time out from XBOX 360 Live to go out and vote. This state should allow online voting.
Difference in the candidates.
Warner is working and asking for the votes, while Woodburn is strategizing and fundraising for the votes. This is why I think Warner can prevail in this race.
Recently an article appears in the liberal Littleton Courier newspaper about the Northern Pass and issues surrounding it including campaign contributions. Woodburn thinks they should be returned. The Northern Pass proposal and the skeleton like steel towers is an issue but it still doesn't decide a state senate race. I don't think it even builds name recognition.
Meanwhile I'm up in Berlin and seeing signs for Warner some of them actually hand drawn. This is effort, this is votes and this is how elections are won. There is a month to go before the election alot can and will happen in the next 30 days but if the inertia holds on the present paths of both of these candidates I see a Republican win in November for Senate District 1.
Whether anything gets done in the next two years is a question for another day.