Bob's Book. Enter The Candidate.

So former Sen. Bob Smith announced that he isn't in the running. I'd previously looked at the NH Redbook and reported on some of the demographic strength of this possible candidacy. But Smith stated one factor I didn't even consider: physical endurance.

Politics is alot like sports in this regard both mental and physical stamina is a prerequisite for a powerful position like this one. I think his book should be most interesting, especially about the contested primary between himself and John E. Sununu.

So at this point I'm looking at the NH Redbook again this time it's 1992 and the direct primary for U.S. Senate between incumbent Judd Gregg and Harold Eckman. Gregg 57,141 and Eckman 43,744. Then I looked down on the page at the First Congressional District and it showed Bill Hatch defeating RINO Steve Duprey 17,176 to 15,818. I'd be willing to guess that Eckman was to the right to Gregg, this being said I think name recognition and better organization likely carried this race.

This analysis being in the background and assuming Charlie Bass enters into the U.S. Senate race might history be some evidence of the way a Bass-Rubens contested primary could shake out? I'm thinking Rubens gets to the right faster than moderate Bass does while Bass counters with slightly better organization, marketing and established name recognition.

I'd put this race now at 56% for Bass 44% for Rubens. 

Alot of things can happen between now and primary day. Alot of things.