Basis Of Negative.

So I'm still working on my NH Redbook analysis of the upcoming U.S. Senate race.

I'm having alot of strategy related thoughts on the speculative basis that the candidate field is Bass/Rubens/Testerman.

I've moved beyond Bass being the instant winner due to his established status in NH politics, whether this is in organization, fundraising or how well he might do in a parade. In my last blog I put Testerman into the possibility category running a smaller, targeted campaign. Which, is still a long-shot considering the fact that Bass could still aggregate, control the major markets like Nashua and Manchester while Testerman would have be scoring 80-90% wins in the smaller areas. I'm not saying it can't be done but statistical analysis says it's still difficult.

So this leaves the third candidate in the field, former Senator Jim Rubens.

I see only two direction(s) for this candidacy:

1. A toe to toe match up between Rubens and Bass and which candidate can run the most aggressive, well financed campaign that leads to a vote majority in this primary. I don't know what kind of pipeline or apparatus Rubens might have in place to raise money for a political campaign; I hope that he would not pull a Congressman Frank Guinta move, $250,000.00 appears in his account and he "doesn't remember or recall the account where it came from."  

2. And what I think is the more likely of political scenarios, is that Rubens announces on the 18th provides some of his own capital, not as much as Bass, makes an attempt at fundraising which more than likely will fizzle, sputter and stall out thus leaving Rubens with no real choice but to run a negative attack campaign against front runner Bass.

Negative political campaigns do not work. They just don't I am not understanding why political campaigns continue to use these type of strategies.

If I'm right however, and the streets of Nashua and Manchester are turned into a contest between Bass and Rubens hurling paint ball and rocket launchers against each other, this only helps in my analysis of Karen Testerman. But believe me I'm not endorsing her as a U.S. Senator-- her policy seems to be how best to turn the clocks back on all aspects of society. I still can't beleive she made the statement that "unmarried couples shouldn't be allowed to hold hands because it leads to other things."  

September 18th is going to be a most interesting day.