The Magic Of 34%.

So I spent some time with the NH Redbook today and got some interesting insight into the upcoming U.S. Senate race. I'll share my conclusion right up front.

The more candidates that are in the race makes total fundraising less of an issue, and targeted political campaigns actually have a greater chance of being successful or in this case, prevailing with the 34% that would be needed to win.

Okay, so I looked at 1988 and total primary votes cast of 86,950. Then I selected five cities(ward 1) that comprise about 15% of this total vote.

Next, I used $500,000.00 as the benchmark of what Bass/Rubens/Testerman each had to spend on their respective campaigns. Here is how the votes come down for the 15% and what they're worth assuming the campaigns allocate 15% of their resources towards them.

City                       Votes Cast         Value Per Voter.

Nashua                  4298                  $17.44

Manchester            4093                  $18.32

Concord                 2033                  $36.89

Laconia                  1161                   $64.50

Berlin                     1128                   $66.48  

Clearly, there is 'more bang for the buck' for the candidates to spend their resources in major areas like Manchester and Nashua. However, does this include the actual costs of the campaigns in places like Manchester vs. Laconia or Berlin? I don't think that it does. I think political advertising that leads to votes would cost less in Laconia or Berlin than it does in Manchester or Nashua. Increasing campaign funding say to $750,000.00 per campaign only drives up the costs for all the votes already stated in this analysis.

At first I was thinking that Karen Testerman should not run for U.S. Senate and going against the political machinery and fundraising of the experienced Charlie Bass. I'm not saying that after looking at these numbers.

Sure it's only 15% I'm looking at but if Testerman could run a low budget campaign and selectively target areas like Laconia, Berlin, Conway even Littleton might this also get to the 34% that is needed? 34% of 86,950 is 29,563 I'll call it 30,000 votes to win this primary. Sure they'res only 1161 votes in Laconia instead of 4298 in Nashua and the experienced Charlie Bass knows this-- so he'll use his experience and resources to try and capture these votes.

Why take on Charlie head on?

Especially when 30,000 votes exist elsewhere and they might be easier to get.