How Bob Smith Could Win.

These past couple of nights I've been spending some time in the NH Redbooks. It's given me an interesting perspective on political campaign(s) and especially the upcoming U.S. Senate primary.

I can now see how former Sen. Bob Smith is looking at this.

For starters, if he enters the race he'll come in with some significant strategic and tactical advantages all the other possible and declared candidates don't have. And Smith not only has this advantage(s) but it wouldn't cost a tremendous amt. to not only capitalize on these assets but assuming this is a three or four way primary not many percentage points would be needed to claim victory.

I'll sum up these advantages in a short way: "How many Republicans have not heard of Bob Smith and if they have can actually brand him to the left of Charlie Bass." 

They can't.

And even if they could Smith would still take a few moderate votes anyway, just through name recognition alone- and assuming this is a Smith/Bass/Rubens/Testerman race the number to win is now 26.2%.

I'm looking at the voter strength of the Lakes Region and places like Laconia, Belmont and the snobby boros on the lake; I'd submit that if the primary were tommorrow and Smith did nothing except place his name on the ballot with the other four he would capture 14% of the total vote.

How far is it to go from 14 to 26.2%?

Not very far at all.