I'm not a political analyst by any stretch. I can understand most of statistical analysis and modeling behind those wondeful polls that appear on WMUR with a +/-5% margin of error. Some of it has a basis and some of it is just plain bunk.
This being said I did some quick math about what I think is one possible scenario of the upcoming U.S. Senate primary for the Republican slot. And my theory goes like this:
Testerman and Smith for whatever reason(s) between them capture 15% of the vote. Tea Party whatever, they just do.
This leaves 85% of the primary field available. And this is where is gets interesting. This then becomes a race of 42.5 percent instead of 50.And the moderate voters that likely voted for John E. Sununu against Bob Smith in that primary where do they weigh in this race?.....
It's interesting that the Republican establishment in Concord and Washington quickly rallied behind Scott Brown before even so much as a shred was suggested about fundraising and exactly what the appeal was to the voters. I still haven't seen Mr. Brown in northern New Hampshire. I think the Brown campaign has done some statistical research on it own, and it's very similar in lines to what the G.W. Bush campaign for President in NH did.
Image is more important than reality.
I think if Rubens does exactly what he is doing at the grassroots level and the Scott Brown machinery grinds into a landmine (which is entirely possible) Rubens could very well be the nominee.