Im going to try and make this blog interesting and not statistical and boring.
Right now I'm looking at the N.H. Redbook known officially as the N.H. Manual For The General Court Number 53 which was published in 1993. It happened to be the first one that I grabbed.
In this particluar year Ray Burton secured both the Republican and Democratic nominations to be Grafton County Commissioner for District #2. Total Republican votes: 7,020 and Total Democratic votes: 3,804. for a Grand Total of 10,824.
Of course in 2014 Republican and Democratic votes will be different there are now more Democratic votes then there have been in previous years, as the media likes to state "the area is now more blue than red." However, this being said I think the figure of 10,824 is still fairly accurate in terms of total outcome so let's say that 10,824 is the total outcome.
What do I need to do to win? Or at least capture 3,615 votes and win with a majority of 33.4% of the vote assuming this is a three way race for Grafton County Commissioner, District #2.
Running as an independent basically I need to mine or directly steal votes from both the Republican and Democratic candidates...
Divide 3615/2= 1808 votes from each candidate. or in statistical terms: taking 25.7% of the votes from the Republican and 47% from the Democratic. This is assuming that I'm stealing from both candidates 50/50. I could weight this and steal 35% from the Republican and 37% from the Democratic and still arrive at that needed 3,615 to win. I'm also not considering any undecided voters as the statistics published in the Redbook include only Republican and Democrats.