Each year I get excited for the Kentucky Derby. It's this Saturday.
I'm not a horse analyst or handicapper by any stretch but it's alot of fun to at least try and get involved with the first leg of the Triple Crown. I've also noticed after reading morning lines that racing is alot like politics, especially with the attempts at picking the winner.
This year is no exception. Favorites are coming down with American Pharoh and Dortmund. With respective odds at 13/5 and 7/2 respectively. Some more specific analysis: http://www.oddsshark.com/horse-racing/kentucky-derby-odds
In any case it's alot like what is going on with the GOP declared and possible presidential candidates the odds makers all tend to give the odds to the well established trainers, barns and who the owners are and the underlying bankroll. I always question this. Some of the GOP reports I've read like Neil Bush and of course he is given the best odds. Notice I didn't say anything about performance or track record before making this statement.
Let's move on...
This is why I always like and bet longshots or, in other words horses and candidates that actually have a better track record and performance than the "favorites." Right now I'm looking at Far Right with odds at 40-1. Sometimes called an overlay this is a horse that has had solid wins and performance at Oaklawn as recently as April 11th and a track that is markedly similar to Churchill Downs site of the Kentucky Derby. With 40-1 odds the payout would be as quality as the performance of Far Right, it wouldn't be unrealistic to believe a $2.00 win bet would return a $56.20 payout.
Not too bad.