I’m not a political analyst.
I don’t study Rasmussen, UNH Survey Center to find out how the upcoming elections are going to turn out. I’m interested in several races and issues and believe that the outcome has no statistical probability that can be measured-- it’s a matter of simple retail and grassroots politics and who works the hardest for the votes.
This is the way that it should be.
Let’s talk about State Senate District #1.
A horse race that pits Republican Debi Warner against Jeff Woodburn. And this one will be a photo finish. Inquiry. Hold all tickets.
But I’ll place my bets: A $2.00 Exacta Ticket (Woodburn, Warner). Then a $2.00 Trifecta (Woodburn,Warner,Undecided). Then finally as a short hedge I’d put a $3.00 Show bet on that undecided; it’s a 28-1 pure long shot, indecision that miracously clunks up for third right on the damn rail that costs Warner that first place finish.
That damn 28-1 horse that suddenly decides it wants to run. A lot like NH voters that decide right at the polls.