A Matter of Political Alignment.

So several days ago I was walking through Border’s bookstore in Concord looking at books like Stephen King’s new book, Under the Dome. I’ve been waiting for the decision or at least the announcement as to whether the famous writer from Bangor will have a sequel to The Shining. As I’m sure you all know the shining was partially based on the Mount Washington Hotel in Bretton Woods.

Apparently King has issued a statement about the possibility of a sequel featuring Danny Torrance fifty years later. King has stated that this would be a cool idea but at this point nothing firm has been done.

I’m thinking horror right now after watching some of the press coverage of the casino legislation before the legislature. Clearly the political alignment for the passage of a casino bill is better in New Hampshire than it’s ever been. Senate President Larsen has quoted 60% of New Hampshire voters favor this over taxation. I think the number is closer to 70% but right now this isn’t that important what is important is the political alignment and the fact that elected officials in the statehouse are listening to what the citizens of New Hampshire want. I’ve never heard of Executive Councilor Ray Burton ever state that he supports casinos in New Hampshire, even after I questioned him specifically on this issue but today “now is the time.” Burton has stated.

Now think about Jack Torrance. He is sitting at the bar in the Gold Room being served by the immaculate Bellman. “You’re credit is good here Mr. Torrance, you’re credit will always be good here but there is however, a certain matter that needs to be attended to.”

In New Hampshire that certain matter is Governor John Lynch.

What happens if the legislature passes this expanded casino gaming legislation and is vetoed by Governor Lynch. The popular three term Governor has stated that he is personally opposed to the idea of expanded casino gaming and if you notice that the commission he personally created via executive order isn’t doing anything except gathering information. Big surprise here. So the next election is coming, I think Commissioner Stephen unlike his bids for Congress so far is using a quality issue based strategy and sharp jabs against the governor. Not overly negative, Stephen is using his experience in state government to his advantage. Over time Stephen will inflict some real damage to the image experienced incumbent.

From a political basis Lynch could simply veto the casino bill. The outcome of the election won’t be decided by this action unless the popular three term governor wants to be known as the individual that brought casinos into New Hampshire, which he doesn’t. By vetoing the bill Lynch could effectively move the issue to the next governor should he lose and if he wins uses the veto to sustain his well- established position against expanded casino gaming. Somehow I just can’t picture Gov. Lynch signing a casino bill regardless of what it is.

And regardless of what the citizens of New Hampshire want.

NVN Nation- Descent.

Run Homeless Run!

Recently WMUR ran a segment that I think really shows what the media can do when they put their weight behind an issue. Especially an issue like homelessness in New Hampshire.

It featured reporter Amy Covino looking around Manchester on a cold night searching for the homeless in the cold of night. Strangely she didn’t find anybody.

Isn’t this amazing.

The unemployment rate is in the double digits, hundreds of people in the major cities like Manchester are struggling financially and a record number of individuals are sleeping in their cars, eating in soup kitchens and otherwise living in life conditions that can be accurately described as a living hell. As a result of this there’s another statistic that is quietly increasing as well…

And WMUR doesn’t find anybody.

I was waiting a scene showing attractive Amy wearing jeans and high heels racing across the parking lot like a scene from history detectives where the truth is not only uncovered but its well explained. Then the reality sets in. This isn’t supposed to be entertainment WMUR is trying to say something to someone:  

 It isn’t that bad in Manchester. At least not for the homeless people.

After searching Covino finds some abandoned homeless camps I could have sworn these were the same new sleeping bags in every location and then finally, finally they find someone who is homeless. Living right beside the Merrimack River with a nice kitty cat he describes homelessness. It might even be better than a stuffy condo or a security deposit apartment; you know the ones with the paper thin walls and the moans of ecstasy. WMUR closes it out with a heart wrenching story of a one room family of four and the challenges of bed bugs in the night, forget the cockroaches but bad bedbugs, bad. But the segment appears to end happily for this family so this is good. I’m not sure whether Covino considers herself to be a good journalist or whether she even spent enough time researching the homelessness issue and better yet revealing the truth. 

That would be journalism not entertainment.  

LNG from Yemen.

Recently there has been some concern about Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) tankers arriving in Boston from Yemen. This move has been approved by the U.S. Coast Guard Marine Safety Office in Boston. And I think that Mayor Menino is right.

“What about the safety of the people.” the Mayor said.

The issue revolves around the safety of bringing an explosive commodity into the metro area of Boston. The news media is reporting the various studies that have been done and of course it’s from different perspectives namely, the shipper, the Coast Guard and the LNG terminal facility itself. Of course the parties on the cash flow side of the supply chain say it’s safe and on the other side of the fence that it isn’t.

The LNG itself is from Yemen.

Part of the concern that I’m reading is that there has been limited to no communication between the various agencies. For example the Boston Fire Department didn’t get any information from the terminal on the specifications of the LNG shipment so they were unable to create a response plan. At least this is what is said in the media including WCVB TV in Boston.

“What about the safety of the people.”- Mayor Menino.

And it’s not like alternatives exist to bringing LNG shipments into Boston because they do. There is an LNG terminal in Newington, NH that would be safer than Boston and safer still would be to offload the volatile commodity in Halifax, Nova Scotia where I understand that Irving Oil Company is constructing a state of the art LNG transfer facility that is not only in a remote location but will be safer and more efficient than the LNG facilities that are currently available in New England. I wonder if the U.S. Coast Guard considered the safety of the people when it approved this transaction.

My experience is that they didn’t. Does the term "facilitating commerce." have any meaning. It should. It also means business as usual.

Semper Paratus.

  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qa9-hbKNas

Is this the end of John Stephen?

By several indications by the end of next week former Commissioner John Stephen will be a candidate for Governor of New Hampshire.

That’s the easy part.

Everything else is likely to be an uphill battle. Perhaps it’s the wrong comparison with NH politics but if you ask any master in the game of chess about strategy most if not all of them will state the same thing:

"No one ever wins at chess by forcing anything."

I think Commissioner Stephen, for unknown reason(s) is forcing this race or his candidacy to happen which is a strategic mistake. And there are a number of reasons for this. First is the name recognition. Assuming the Stephen campaign has the millions of dollars available for ad buys and grassroots retail marketing; the campaign will have to not only get around a Republican primary field but somehow build this needed name recognition and then link all that is wrong with New Hampshire to Governor Lynch.

I know there are some brilliant campaign strategists in New Hampshire but can this realistically be done?

UNH can have all the survey polls it can amass, with a +-7% margin of error but study after study has shown that consumer behavior is completely influenced by brand/name recognition followed by the price point. Studies have shown that when the price is lowered for brands that are perceived to be expensive i.e. Mercedes Benz cars that overall long-term sales and market demand actually declines. The reason: consumer perception. With this as an example, how will the Stephen campaign be able to build name recognition and stand a chance of defeating an incumbent without unleashing attack ads against Governor Lynch? I think Stephen has to go negative.

How else does Stephen build market and demand, and defeat his entrenched opponent without lowering his price?

Imagine the former Health and Human Services Commissioner coming up to Berlin in the shadows of unemployment, social strata, section 8 housing and standing near a bridge over the Androscoggin River saying something comparable to a Stephen Merrill campaign ad: “and that’s the New Hampshire way.” I don’t know who is advising Commissioner Stephen to enter this race, perhaps he is advising himself? It would be interesting to see how they arrived at the strength(s) of his campaign. Did they consider the Republican primary? Did they consider the financial issues and fundraising (if applicable)?

And lastly did they consider the re-election efforts of Governor Lynch?

The Significance of Six Million.

So former Representative David Boutin has been sworn in as the Senator from District 16. I don’t think this is going to make any real significance on the ground but the voters have spoken and my opinion is clearly biased.

The Republican party and its many analysts are calling the Boutin victory as a sign of elections to come. Time will tell. Especially in the Republican primaries.

Senator Boutin ran a campaign characterized by a lot of door pounding, letters from supporters including former Congressman Charlie Bass and statements about “getting people back to work.” These are certainly themes that play well with the voters and to anyone that is contemplating unemployment, home foreclosure and the upcoming menu at the local soup kitchen.

These are challenging times indeed.

The elections are now over and now it’s time for Senator Boutin to start delivering on what he campaigned on. A really good place to start is the issue at the Manchester-Boston Regional Airport and the idea of tolling the access road to generate a reported six million dollars. Former State Representative and Manchester Alderman Jackie Domaingue wrote a recent article in the Union Leader in which she described the issues as being hell freezing over before any real or serious action is taken on this issue by Manchester officials including Mayor Gatsas and the Airport Manager. I think Senator Boutin could be effective here, or at the very least his office should take a position on whether to support the tolls or not.

I also hope that former Rep. Terry Pfaff is closely watching the performances and promises of Senator Boutin. It would be really neat to watch the new Senator get trounced in the next primary.

So much for the campaigns, analysis and saying anything to get elected.