Post Ames – Now it’s REALLY the NH Primary
For Republicans in New Hampshire, today starts a new chapter in this cycle of the New Hampshire primary. This is, of course, because of yesterday’s Ames Straw Poll.
As expected Mitt Romney took 1st. That really isn’t the story of the day – Romney really only would have been the story if he hadn’t taken first. The real stories are where everyone else fell in the ranking. With Guiliani and McCain opting to not participate for fear of not doing well and being the story today, that left a hunk of second tier candidates to fight it out to be the story.
Huckabee’s 2nd place finish, with Brownback right at his heels, must be a disappointment for both Ron Paul and Tommy Thompson.
Thompson had put all he had into Iowa – and for some reason he just couldn’t do it. Having talked with Thompson on a few occasions, even though he may not have done well in the Iowa Straw Poll – or any poll for that matter – reality is that he was actually good on the issues. Had he achieved his goals in Iowa, I think people in NH would have given him a second look. I guess, actually, It likely would have been their first look – since he had only been to NH a handful of times and really hadn’t had much of a chance to press the flesh here.
Ron Paul’s people in NH seem to be just as enthusiastic as they were 2 days ago….so that’s a good thing for Ron Paul. If I were a betting type, I probably would have bet that Paul was going to come in 4th…maybe 3rd. I guess that’s why I’m not the betting type. Paul’s battle here in NH is going to be getting people to take Paul as a serious contender. It’ll be interesting to see how much time and what kind of events they plan for him. Many would like to think that Ron Paul is what Pat Buchanan was in ’95-96, but it’s not the same. Buchanan was well known, he had been in a presidential race prior and he placed second in the Ames Straw Poll. I like Ron Paul on a lot of issues, I just don’t see him as winning.
That’s what sucks about politics – it’s very often not the candidate that people identify with that wins.
So, now it’s really the NH Primary…..here come the candidates. Some people find this season to be annoying - they don’t want to be bothered with the business of presidential politics. If you’re one of them, you probably wouldn’t be reading this blog. When you come across someone who can’t wait for them to all just go home and leave NH alone….remind them of the money that gets spent here over the next 5 months. The hotels, the restaurants, the rental vehicles, the banquet halls, the printing – everything from Walmart to the highest paid consultants gets a boost in these next months. That’s very good for NH. What’s also good is that now it’s our turn to vet these candidates.
Let the real games begin….
Reader Comments (6)
I did see the Lie-bold results, reported by the old media (minus one particular candidate that they don't like). I also saw the new media report of the troubles with the machines, as well as reports of how easily they are tampered with.
Tommy Thompson's candidacy is over. As governor of the neighboring state, he absolutely had to pull off a miracle in this straw poll to have any legitimacy as a candidate.
Ron Paul, on the other hand, showed considerable support if the numbers showing him in 5th are accurate. Iowa isn't exactly what you'd call a libertarian stronghold -- in fact, it relies heavily on the sort of farm subsidies Paul has always railed against. And of course he was even shut out of their candidate forum...
Paul supporters are battling for the soul of the Republican party, and maybe they're a longshot to take the ultimate prize, but does that mean we should vote for another Lyndon Johnson type of Republican?!?!
I know that isn't what you're suggesting...
Matt
PS Dems can't vote in a republican caucus
Do yourself a favor. Stop posting as if you were are a respected operative. You are a joke.